New Record Low For Mortgage Approvals - Boe

[crown]

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/...8/Jul/index.htm

36000 for home purchase SA down 68% YoY

42000 for home purchase NSA down 69% YoY

Edited July 29, 2008 by crown

[FreeTrader]

36000 for home purchase SA

..vs 114,000 June 2007.

[yellerkat]

..vs 114,000 June 2007.

wow.

...and to tie it in with Crown's post HERE - just how many people qualify for "normal" lending? Damn few, it appears.

ED: Usual stupidity.

Edited July 29, 2008 by yellerKat

[quantinghome]

This was to be expected as the BBA figures were also low. But... WOW! Last month the drop was ludicrous, frankly. But it just carries on.

[bearbullfence]

42000 for home purchase NSA down 69% YoY

So 42,000 mortgages approved. I take it this is combined new mortgages AND remortgages?

[DoctorJ]

Are we in crash territory yet?

[crown]

for home purchase

[right_freds_dead]

So 42,000 mortgages approved. I take it this is combined new mortgages AND remortgages?

thats the key question.

[Fully Detached]

Did I read somewhere that Rightmove have 900,000 houses on their site at the moment? Not much of a dent in their inventory this month then

[megaflop2]

What was the low in the last crash? About 80,000 transactions per month?

[FreeTrader]

So 42,000 mortgages approved. I take it this is combined new mortgages AND remortgages?

No, it's just house purchase. Remortgages are additonal, and were 87,000 NSA in June.

The 84,000 SA figure for remortgages was the lowest since July 2002.

[cells]

pent up demand

[Jason]

Woah! Expect some more big drops in the indices for the next six months or so!

[CharlieChuck]

The amount of money lent for new purchases seems to be well down on recent months:

it's about page 36 of the boe report,

jun08 5.8bn

..

mar08 9bn

..

jun07 20bn

[Jason]

BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7530432.stm

[Realistbear]

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/...8/Jul/index.htm

36000 for home purchase SA down 68% YoY

42000 for home purchase NSA down 69% YoY

A 20% drop YoY would be regarded as a crash in new mortgage activity. After all, that represents a one fifth drop in lenders commissions.

A one-third or 33.33% drop would be a crash + with a clear and present danger to lender's viability as a business and an indication that the market was in free fall.

A 50% drop in mortage activity would be catastrophic placing lenders under imminent threat of closure with the loss of thousands of jobs.

A 67% or two-thirds drop in activity is unspeakable in its gravity.

Its a lagging indicator just like unemployment data and when it hits it hits HARD.

[alabala]

BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7530432.stm

The credit crunch has reduced the availability of mortgages

And who is this credit crunch?

Blame it on the Rain, The Yanks, Europe but never, never take the blame...We are so iresponsible, but hey the Crunch is to Blame.

[quantinghome]

What was the low in the last crash? About 80,000 transactions per month?

Unfortunately the bank of england data only goes back to 1993, so we don't know what the approvals levels were during the big falls from 1989 to 1992. Anyone know of other data sources that go back that far?

[crown]

Unfortunately the bank of england data only goes back to 1993, so we don't know what the approvals levels were during the big falls from 1989 to 1992. Anyone know of other data sources that go back that far?

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/

graph has between 90,000 and 60,000 approvals

[Liquid Goldfish]

A 20% drop YoY would be regarded as a crash in new mortgage activity. After all, that represents a one fifth drop in lenders commissions.

A one-third or 33.33% drop would be a crash + with a clear and present danger to lender's viability as a business and an indication that the market was in free fall.

A 50% drop in mortage activity would be catastrophic placing lenders under imminent threat of closure with the loss of thousands of jobs.

A 67% or two-thirds drop in activity is unspeakable in its gravity.

Its a lagging indicator just like unemployment data and when it hits it hits HARD.

Is there a precedent for this sort of drop off in mortgage activity and its effects on HPI - I know there isn't in the UK so was thinking of other countries?

Although simple supply and demand (i.e. mortgage availability) doesn't seem to apply to house prices, I wonder if there will be a tipping point caused by a massive build up of despearte sellers followed by a massive acceleration of HPC

[OnlyMe]

Remortgaging levels will be high - this is largely thanks to both the lenders and the brokers enjoying their carousel commission and fess two year mortgage deals.

Always stunned me how these mortgages were sold primarily with the title of being fixed! You can see why they were so popular - they allowed huge amounts of churn and fees, all as long as investors were keen on taking 2 year revolving credit - which they weren't. What a very very risky game, it really is amazing it didn't fall apart way earlier.

So forget the overall numbers the only numbers that matter here as com parables are the number of mortgage approvals for new purchase.