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The Talk In The City Is Of A Big Bank Collapse

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/paulm...become_foc.html

Bank balance sheets become focus of scrutiny

Paul Mason Mon 28 Jul 08, 11:46 AM

Heard in London: Hedge fund economist: "Hey Bill I am worried that one of the major banks will go under by next year." Hedge fund manager: "Fred I am certain one of them is going to go under". Now hedge fund people move in a world of febrility, giant risk and hyperbole but this conversation happened, and recently (names changed, obviously).

.../

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Guest KingCharles1st

What exactly is going to collapse- a name, a building, what? All the good assets already assimilated by the others?

I can't believe for one second the vultures won't have already picked out the eyes and other juicy bits by the time what is left slips under the waves.

These things don't just happen- they are planned..

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B&B hopefully. That'll put the nail in the BTL coffin.

Does B&B qualify as "major"? (I'd also consider A&L too small to be labelled 'major'...)

HBOS, I guess would... as would RBS and Barclays... HSBC and Lloyds-TSB seem less likely contenders.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/paulm...become_foc.html

Bank balance sheets become focus of scrutiny

Paul Mason Mon 28 Jul 08, 11:46 AM

I don't think, after gaining some insight into the mortgage back securities mess that many of the banks are in, many on HPC would be at all surprised to see one of the big UK or European banks go down. Whether such a collapse could be "contained" or whether it would set off a chain reaction of defaults and collapses would be interesting to see. :ph34r:

Edit: Tense

Edited by Bubble&Squeak

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Does B&B qualify as "major"? (I'd also consider A&L too small to be labelled 'major'...)

HBOS, I guess would... as would RBS and Barclays... HSBC and Lloyds-TSB seem less likely contenders.

All the former building societies became major lenders in recent years, despite almost no growth in deposits due to the securitisation markets.

With those gone they have no more money to lend, and the ever growing arrears problem keeps hitting B&B badly, that's why they went from 'we don't need a rights issue' to 'quick give us £400m' in a matter of days. They became major in market share terms, and they've got a major slice of UK BTL, so i'd class them as fairly major in this market.

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Far from "shutting the stable door after the Northern Rock has bolted", there may yet be the danger of another, more thoroughbred, horse kicking the stable door down and careering between Canary Wharf and Poultry smashing things up at all points in-between.

Is he alluding to Lloyds, or am I reading too much into the above?

Edited to change from Barclays to Lloyds. Lloyds the Black Horse.

Edited by Fudge

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Far from "shutting the stable door after the Northern Rock has bolted", there may yet be the danger of another, more thoroughbred, horse kicking the stable door down and careering between Canary Wharf and Poultry smashing things up at all points in-between.

Is he alluding to Barclays, or am I reading too much into the above?

Of the UK's big five, i'd say HBOS is currently the most vulnerable, purely because it is the UK's largest mortgage lender.

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Of the UK's big five, i'd say HBOS is currently the most vulnerable, purely because it is the UK's largest mortgage lender.

I thought the rights issue last week secured HBOS's future - didn't they raise 4 billion?

Same for B&B and A&L - B&B I thought was safe now re its rights issue and A&L is about to be bought by Santander?

Of course, I suppose none of this factors in the crunch getting a lot worse and millions of Brits defaulting on their home loans.

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I thought the rights issue last week secured HBOS's future - didn't they raise 4 billion?

Same for B&B and A&L - B&B I thought was safe now re its rights issue and A&L is about to be bought by Santander?

Of course, I suppose none of this factors in the crunch getting a lot worse and millions of Brits defaulting on their home loans.

The HBOS rights issue failed massively, leaving the underwriters with a big bill. They won't be so keen to approve another rights issue, meaning that is all the cash HBOS is getting, and it's a drop in the ocean compared with their outstanding mortgage liabilities.

B&B is even worse. The entire £400m issue came from a 1% increase in arrears and repos in its BTL portfolio. Another 1% and they need the same again, and again, and again.... you get the picture. B&B interim results are out 28 August (delayed i believe) so we'll see where they are when it comes round.

I'd say RBS is the safest as it raised 14bn with no major problems, giving it the most stable capital base.

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The HBOS rights issue failed massively, leaving the underwriters with a big bill. They won't be so keen to approve another rights issue, meaning that is all the cash HBOS is getting, and it's a drop in the ocean compared with their outstanding mortgage liabilities.

B&B is even worse. The entire £400m issue came from a 1% increase in arrears and repos in its BTL portfolio. Another 1% and they need the same again, and again, and again.... you get the picture. B&B interim results are out 28 August (delayed i believe) so we'll see where they are when it comes round.

I'd say RBS is the safest as it raised 14bn with no major problems, giving it the most stable capital base.

"The HBOS rights issue failed massively, leaving the underwriters with a big bill"

Really?

"I'd say RBS is the safest as it raised 14bn with no major problems, giving it the most stable capital base."

Safer than Lloyds?

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Bank of England?

You are the editor of the daily mail and I hereby claim my £5.

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Mate went to A&L today and you can no longer take out more than 500 quid in cash!!!

He took a few thousand out a month or so ago.

True of Nationwide in Chiswick also.

.

ST

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You are the editor of the daily mail and I hereby claim my £5.

oh **** thought you wouldn't spot me. You can have your £5 in 2011, it should still buy you a jelly baby by then ( maybe).

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"The HBOS rights issue failed massively, leaving the underwriters with a big bill"

Really?

"I'd say RBS is the safest as it raised 14bn with no major problems, giving it the most stable capital base."

Safer than Lloyds?

Yeah, investors only bought 8% of the £4bn of HBOS shares on offer, the rest is paid for by the insurers.

Lloyds could potentially be safe, but they've all had their fingers in the crazy lending pie, RBS included.

I'd imagine HSBC would also be quite safe as it has a very small proportion of the UK mortgage market, and it has deposits from all over the world.

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I paid deposit on my new rental in cash £821 to be precise. The nice lady at Halifaxwide tried to stop me, so I told her if I couldn't have it I want my £10k out now. I got my deposit real quick then.

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The HBOS rights issue failed massively, leaving the underwriters with a big bill. They won't be so keen to approve another rights issue, meaning that is all the cash HBOS is getting, and it's a drop in the ocean compared with their outstanding mortgage liabilities.

B&B is even worse. The entire £400m issue came from a 1% increase in arrears and repos in its BTL portfolio. Another 1% and they need the same again, and again, and again.... you get the picture. B&B interim results are out 28 August (delayed i believe) so we'll see where they are when it comes round.

I'd say RBS is the safest as it raised 14bn with no major problems, giving it the most stable capital base.

They were due out this week, that's quite a worryingly long delay. I tihnk HBOS and Lloyds are also due to report this week.

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Yeah, investors only bought 8% of the £4bn of HBOS shares on offer, the rest is paid for by the insurers.

Lloyds could potentially be safe, but they've all had their fingers in the crazy lending pie, RBS included.

I'd imagine HSBC would also be quite safe as it has a very small proportion of the UK mortgage market, and it has deposits from all over the world.

"Yeah, investors only bought 8% of the £4bn of HBOS shares on offer, the rest is paid for by the insurers."

So all the take last week about Morgan maybe ending up in profit was rubbish?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/ro...an_stanley.html

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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