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House Prices Set To Rise 25 Per Cent In Next Five Years Says Federation.

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Here is a question for you to ponder. If you throw a brick out of a ten-storey building, when will the brick stop falling and what will it do next? Will it stop at the second floor? Or maybe it will stop at the first floor, then rise all the way back up again. Or maybe it will fall for a while, then shoot up to the 20th floor or higher, in a trajectory that disproves the theory of gravity.

Most of us, however, would expect the brick to hit bottom with a thud, and stay there. Maybe it would shatter into pieces too.

Yet this is the strange thing. If you apply that question to house prices, many seem to think the market will follow some kind of extreme gravity defying act.

Take as an example, the National Housing Federation. It commissioned a report from Oxford Economics which has predicted a 25 per cent jump in house prices over the next five years. The NHF does expect prices to fall this year and next, but predicts a 1.3 per cent rise in house prices in 2010, followed by 5.2, 9.2 and then 9.3 per cent jumps in the following years..........

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So the same people who thought house prices couldn't fall now predict that the bottom comes with a 1.3% fall in 2010.

This is all total crap, they even know it to the nearest 0.1%

I predict that prices will fall 12.7% this year.

14.63% in 2009

8.4356% in 2010

4.32434521% in 2011

6.54998343453211112% in 2012

Edited by WiseBear

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The report seems to be based on the notion that housing 'demand' is caused by people living in over-crowded conditions who want to live in bigger, better houses.

No mention of the financial hurdling required to turn that 'want' into actual economic demand.

I think that we on this forum have a better idea about this. Housing demand has to include more than just 'wanting' more space, it has to include the ability to borrow and the ability to service debt. People who are currently living in over-crowded conditions or who are going to need new homes due to divorce etc. can 'want' new houses all they like, unless they somehow acquire the money to buy them it isn't going to happen.

This article can safely be declared total rubbish.

Edited by SelfDoIt

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The report seems to be based on the notion that housing 'demand' is caused by people living in over-crowded conditions who want to live in bigger, better houses.

No mention of the financial hurdling required to turn that 'want' in to actual economic demand.

I think that we on this forum has a better idea about this. Housing demand has to include more than just 'wanting' more space, it has to include the ability to borrow and the ability to service debt. People who are currently living in over-crowded conditions or who are going to need new homes due to divorce etc. can 'want' new houses all they like, unless they somehow acquire the money to buy them it isn't going to happen.

This article can safely be declared total rubbish.

Exactly right. I want an F1 car, but I could never afford one so my want doesn't increase demand for F1 cars in any way. Similarly, I guy working in a factory living in an inner city terraced house probably wants a 6 bed country mansion, but he isn't going to get one without a liar loan.

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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