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right_freds_dead

Why The +25% Headlines Will Kill The Uk Economy

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todays press releases of +25% rises aimed to combat the truth of 10 month of land registry falls, which was also released today.

this is going to spell the end of the uk economy. the writing is now on the wall for inflation and job prospects.

just when sellers were coming around to reality and bringing prices down to managable levels,

todays headlines are going to make them doubt that and instead try to hang on for a couple of years.

this will make the standoff much longer than it should be.

this is now bad news for the uk economy as no one will be motivated to buy anything.

bad news for savers as deposits are eroded by stealth inflation over the next 3 years.

buyers will be waiting. sellers will be waiting. banks will be trying to stay solvent.

and in the meantime jobs will start shedding.

and rightly so. this country is stupid.

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One thing that passed me by on the 25% report is that 2 years is as long as Gordon Brown has got.

Maybe they see the recovery as when he gets voted out. :rolleyes:

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the cogs are all out of kilter.

the house prices are too high causing too high wage demands on a too high £.

this is all just one big illusion. when they get stuck - they simply print more.

this new standoff will kill the high street dead.

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I note that the Beeb has now moved the Land Registry house price falls in place of that ridiculous story.

People can hang on all they like, but if they get made redundant, or can't remortgage and can't pay the SVR, then they are screwed and the prices will go on getting chopped.

I also note that there are now 214,000 reduced prices on Propertysnake.co.uk, up from around 180,000 a few months ago. I know it isn't the most accurate way to find out what's going on but it gives us an indication of how widespread this is becoming.

Edited by JohnnyB

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yeah but.

if sellers cant spend at B&Q cos they have to service BTL or high mortgages themselves,

and FTBs cant shop at B&Q as they have nowhere to put the kitchens.

who IS buying at B&Q ??

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yeah but.

if sellers cant spend at B&Q cos they have to service BTL or high mortgages themselves,

and FTBs cant shop at B&Q as they have nowhere to put the kitchens.

who IS buying at B&Q ??

The BTLers are 'snapping up the bargains' and kitting out their new 'investment' with some cheap balsa wood furniture so their new cash cows can live in relative discomfort. They can get a one bed flat in stab central for just £225,000, an absolute bargain compared to the £250,000 it cost a few months ago.

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The BTLers are 'snapping up the bargains' and kitting out their new 'investment' with some cheap balsa wood furniture so their new cash cows can live in relative discomfort. They can get a one bed flat in stab central for just £225,000, an absolute bargain compared to the £250,000 it cost a few months ago.

im not sure they are though. they cant get the lending anymore for btl. banks got a cold.

all thats happening is the banks have just assured themselves that those out there already struggling to hold down the stupid mortgages have some hope.

as they repay for at least the next 2 years.

this will stop the key posting todal wave, if they think theres a 25% bonus for them if they can 'only hang on' for 3 years more.

you can almost hear them churrning their minds thinking of what nice cars they will be able to afford if they hold on, and sell then in 2013.

weirdly bad - this country at the moment.

banks and banked backed media have total control of life.

Edited by right_freds_dead

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I like how the news looks in the list on the beeb site:

LATEST HOUSING NEWS

House prices 'up by 25% by 2013'

Mortgage approvals hit fresh low

Mortgage advisers 'are failing'

FSA acts on mortgage fraud

'Take cash and leave' says lender

Mortgage squeeze tightens further

:huh:

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If somebody waves todays nonsense headline in your face, Ask them 1 simple question....

"Do YOU beleive this to be true?"

If they DO beleive it, they should not be talking to you, they should be negotiating with a bank to borrow as much money as poss to buy a property right now. Where else will the get 5% PA after tax?

If they are not going to buy now they either don't beleive the headline, are unable to borrow the money, or they are quite clearly mad.

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An irresponsible and uneducated piece of research by Oxford Economics / The National Housing Federation, I agree, but you'd have to be pretty stupid to believe it when 99% of the rest of the experts are predicting 20-40% reductions by 2011.

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im not sure they are though. they cant get the lending anymore for btl. banks got a cold.

all thats happening is the banks have just assured themselves that those out there already struggling to hold down the stupid mortgages have some hope.

as they repay for at least the next 2 years.

this will stop the key posting todal wave, if they think theres a 25% bonus for them if they can 'only hang on' for 3 years more.

you can almost hear them churrning their minds thinking of what nice cars they will be able to afford if they hold on, and sell then in 2013.

weirdly bad - this country at the moment.

banks and banked backed media have total control of life.

Yeah, but most of them jumped on the bandwagon in the past few years, and were probably already topping up with their own money because you couldn't make any yield from the silly prices they were paying, even on IO. As soon as they have to refinance, or they lose their job, those BTLs are screwed.

The only BTLs that can last 3 years will have bought their last place in the 1990s and haven't re-leveraged since.

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If somebody waves todays nonsense headline in your face, Ask them 1 simple question....

"Do YOU beleive this to be true?"

If they DO beleive it, they should not be talking to you, they should be negotiating with a bank to borrow as much money as poss to buy a property right now. Where else will the get 5% PA after tax?

If they are not going to buy now they either don't beleive the headline, are unable to borrow the money, or they are quite clearly mad.

i agree. i dont think there will be many willing to put their money where their mouth is.

this is a vested story in order for banks to get some positive payback until 2013.

i could get a nice audi if i can only hang on for 3 years in our micro slave box in cardif.

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just when sellers were coming around to reality and bringing prices down to managable levels,

todays headlines are going to make them doubt that and instead try to hang on for a couple of years.

this will make the standoff much longer than it should be.

I think you are overstating the impact of headlines.

This crash was never going to be about willing sellers, but about forced sales from the collapsing volumes of property transactions.

Edited by thedebtisreal

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thedebtisreal is right.

Whilst we were all here predicting the correction through to the start of 2008 there were the ocassional bearish headlines.

The general public ignored these or they were lost in the welter of bullish housing news.

The zeitgeist has changed.

Now everyone 'believes' house prices are falling. And the press believes it too. And the press (& TV/internet) will carry on with prices falling news stories because they give good headline.

And if a few Express readers actually believe what their paper says, then they damn well deserve everything they get.

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I'm not sure.

It is well known that people select information to support their view of the world to avoid the uncomfortable feeling of cognitive dissonance.

Yes, but so what? Most people do not sell, not because of headlines but because they don't want to crystalise a loss. All crashes begin with denial. Always have, always will. Its psychological.

If no sellers drop their prices, then the transactions fall through the floor (already happening). Then mass redundancies soon hit Estate Agencies, Movers, Surveyors, Property Lawyers, Mortgage Lenders, Builders, Decorators and Property Developers (all of which need transactions to survive). These people will struggle to pay their own mortgages and then get repossessed themselves. The cycle continues until the market bottom is reached. You can't stop it. You can't slow it. You can't fight it.

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This report is tomorrow's silicon chip wrapper.

Reality is biting everywhere now. You cannot be in denial when you yourself are hving trouble meeting the bills. The bad news that comes almost daily now will soon have this report forgotten.

Such a shame that what passes for journalism today blindly reports this stuff as fact though without questioning it.

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snip The cycle continues until the market bottom is reached. You can't stop it. You can't slow it. You can't fight it.

Sounds like Mr Market has despatched a Terminator to put things right after the bomb has destroyed the banking, and wants to put paid to the efforts to explode it again.

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The thing with papers reporting like that is that it adds to peoples stress. We sold last year and moved into rented and would just wait while market sorted itself out. But passing the newstand this morning and seeing headlines like that brought a feeling of panic.....yes I don't believe it will happen but it still just adds to the uncertainity and raise the fears that perhaps we should be rushing back into buying again. :unsure:

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If somebody waves todays nonsense headline in your face, Ask them 1 simple question....

"Do YOU beleive this to be true?"

If they DO beleive it, they should not be talking to you, they should be negotiating with a bank to borrow as much money as poss to buy a property right now. Where else will the get 5% PA after tax?

If they are not going to buy now they either don't beleive the headline, are unable to borrow the money, or they are quite clearly mad.

Spot on.

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yeah but.

if sellers cant spend at B&Q cos they have to service BTL or high mortgages themselves,

and FTBs cant shop at B&Q as they have nowhere to put the kitchens.

who IS buying at B&Q ??

I went into the B&Q in milton keynes today. It has to be the biggest retail building I've ever been into. It is so huge that you think twice before hiking across it for a roll of gaffer tape and would wonder if you should have taken a compass and some kendalls mint cake. There were, I'd guess about 30 grumpy staff loitering around in vast customerless areas clock watching, and about 20 middle aged customers browsing. Two tills were open but they could have managed with one cashier. I looked at the other few customers who actually were buying something and it was nothing more than a few bit's an bobs, maybe 10-20 pounds worth of stuff. My local newsagent must be seeing a higher turnover!

There is no way that they are making a bean.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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