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First 50% Off Seen For Character Property


VeryMeanReversion
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The entire housing market in the UK is hyped this far. That is why I suggested long ago that prices will fall 50-60% from the peak. Such drops will only bring houses back to a reasonable relationship to affordability. Not bargain territory. With the crash so much worse than most of us thought it would be a couple of years ago we may see drops in excess of 70% in the most hyped areas.

Christ you are right up there with the HPC sheeple! Have you considered why this house is reduced so heavily? usually for this type of discount is associated with a REASON, something some HPC'ers have abandoned all together in their quest to out do each other with silly predictions.

If everyone shared your view we would certainly all be doomed.

Silly vendors looking for crazy prices will always exist and cannot be used an example for the state of the market in general, i was at an auction held at the property on saturday, the agent recommended a reserve of 330k, the idiot vendor set the reserve at 400k and guess what, the best bid was 330k!

I am a small and non-greedy developer in Lincs / Notts, a good house at a sensible price will still sell and quickly, prices are already down 10% locally and until the mortgage tap is turned back on (i have been discussing this with various lenders and things are improving slowly) i would expect falls to continue at there current pace. To suggest 50% without any real explanation as to why is foolish if you ask me, yes HPC crew can at last give it the almighty "i told you so" but at least be realistic!

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usually for this type of discount is associated with a REASON

The reason is that it needs to be sold. (flippant but true).

So many other houses in this area have been sitting for months and years in some cases. Another example in the village that looks like a repo is a 4-bed + double garage on at £295K. Previous houses in the road have been on for £430K and £360K and not sold for a year. Thats still 30% off. The magnitude of the £600-£325K still suprises me, maybe they will get multiple offers?

>i have been discussing this with various lenders and things are improving slowly

Interesting. Any more details?

VMR.

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Christ you are right up there with the HPC sheeple! Have you considered why this house is reduced so heavily? usually for this type of discount is associated with a REASON, something some HPC'ers have abandoned all together in their quest to out do each other with silly predictions.

If everyone shared your view we would certainly all be doomed.

Silly vendors looking for crazy prices will always exist and cannot be used an example for the state of the market in general, i was at an auction held at the property on saturday, the agent recommended a reserve of 330k, the idiot vendor set the reserve at 400k and guess what, the best bid was 330k!

I am a small and non-greedy developer in Lincs / Notts, a good house at a sensible price will still sell and quickly, prices are already down 10% locally and until the mortgage tap is turned back on (I have been discussing this with various lenders and things are improving slowly) i would expect falls to continue at there current pace. To suggest 50% without any real explanation as to why is foolish if you ask me, yes HPC crew can at last give it the almighty "i told you so" but at least be realistic!

Well the explanation I`ve always given myself is that 50% still does not bring us into affordable range for the average punter, and cash buyers with sense are going to want fair market value, not the last desperate attempt by someone (half the country at the moment) to cling on to the boom. Are you seriously thinking that the credit taps can go on again like they did between 2001 - 2007?

Edited by dances with sheeple
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50% does not seem so unrealistic to me. Prices have rocketed in recent years based on an unusual ease of borrowing and hence the massive demand that is always there was given unusual or atypical funding to satisfy its desire.

We are now in a very very different lending scenario. No amount of massive demand can translate to higher prices while lending is based on more sensible affordability measurement. Effectively the middle class buyer wanting to buy his desired home now is being told 'I am sorry but you are too poor to afford this amount of house.'

And nobody has a solution for this to bypass a return to more traditional affordability.

If you are looking at yields now and saying they look attractive you still have to allow for the contraction in prices and crunge in lending crossing over into all manner of buisiness lending and a resulting recessionary impact on the ability of people to pay current rents.

Truely we do seem to be looking into a once in a lifetime mess for which there are no easy solutions.

Money was too cheap and now its going to get expensive again. In the longer term bankers do not set the price of money. The market does. The bankers appear to have believed they could beat the market and they *now* have no answers. Only those who understand money have the answers but there are no solutions because the current situation should have been prevented.

Thats why 50 or 70% is not unthinkable. The current situation was predictable and so the current situation has to run its course.

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The price that is being quoted is an auction guide price, it has been set very low to get as many people interested as possible and to show that interest by getting the basic legal work done.

The auctioneers will only set the reserve price by agreement with the owner just before the auction itself, this may well be set at a much higher figure than the guide price. The property won't be sold at the auction unless the reserve price is met. If it not met then there can be some discussions afterwards.

When you are buying at auction, don't let the auctioneer know how interested you are in the prop or how much you can afford.

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The price that is being quoted is an auction guide price, it has been set very low to get as many people interested as possible and to show that interest by getting the basic legal work done.

The auctioneers will only set the reserve price by agreement with the owner just before the auction itself, this may well be set at a much higher figure than the guide price. The property won't be sold at the auction unless the reserve price is met. If it not met then there can be some discussions afterwards.

When you are buying at auction, don't let the auctioneer know how interested you are in the prop or how much you can afford.

I respectfully point the right honourable Chas to the sale history of number 35, Beauchamp House - The same building. ;):P

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=35+Be...1+3RW&n=100

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Well the explanation I`ve always given myself is that 50% still does not bring us into affordable range for the average punter, and cash buyers with sense are going to want fair market value, not the last desperate attempt by someone (half the country at the moment) to cling on to the boom. Are you seriously thinking that the credit taps can go on again like they did between 2001 - 2007?

Hey Dances with Sheeple!

No i don't think that mortgages will return to the levels seen recently with 100 + mortgages etc, at least not for a long while, but lending has been severly restricted of late as lenders have actually been trying to fend of customers due to too much demand , this in itself tells a story!

What I am saying is that lenders are actually starting to lend again!

You say houses are 50% overvalued and this may be true of some areas and certain property types, but it is not the case for all areas / houses. A good 3 bed semi in Lincs / Notts can be bought for 100-125k which IS affordable for locals and as such property at this level is still selling and prices have not dipped by much. Up to 250k property in my area is doing OK and valuers are supporting realistic prices.

Over 250k and things are much slower, local wages cannot support the values of larger country houses as the prices have been driven up by buyers moving from south etc, it is likely that these properties could see large falls, however at present people continue move away from the south in particular as the price of flat in London for example can buy a detached country house up here. Commuting is also good with fast rail links to kings cross in around 90 mins.

I don't disagree that certain area's / houses COULD see falls of 50% (south in particular) but i don't think it is wise to tarnish all property with the same brush.

Very Mean Reversion - I was speaking to my bank manager at Barclays last week, under the actual "Barclays" brand they apparently didn't get to involved in the crazy lending practices and as such their commercial and residential sides are pretty much business as usual (they have always had fairly strict LTV), of course rates and fee's are up but they are not turning away good business.

I also had several lengthy discussions last week with Halifax with regards to a 5% gifted deposit scheme, they are one of only a handful of lenders who support this. They assured me (taken with a pinch of salt of course!) that they are going to continue promoting 95% LTV providing the agreed price is realistic and supported by their valuers.

Both lenders stated that they can see the end in sight with lending volumes starting to increase, it will be slow and the criteria will be much tighter, which is a good thing!, but this is a step in the right direction.

Don't forget the government is planning ways to enable the banks to sell mortgage backed securities again, this is from what i understand the major issue at present.

All i would say is be careful what you wish for, something that doesn't seem to be discussed too much on here is the fallout should your predictions come true, if prices were to fall 50% on average say then it is likely anyone who isn't seriously loaded will be completely screwed. The result could be a large percentage of people pushed into poverty with no roof over their heads, including many of the people on here who seem overjoyed that things are heading down!

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until the mortgage tap is turned back on (i have been discussing this with various lenders and things are improving slowly) i would expect falls to continue at there current pace. To suggest 50% without any real explanation as to why is foolish if you ask me

Your stated position is that property prices will continue falling until the mortgage tap is turned back on. That makes sense to me. So, when will the tap be turned back on?

Not any time soon that's for sure. The fundamental process that allowed abundant and cheap credit was mortgage securitisation, where mortgages were bundled up and sold on. That's all now finished, here's why,

1. Who in their right mind will ever buy these bundled mortgages in the next decade or even in the next generation? It would be like selling shares in a nuclear power plant right after Chernobyl or Three Mile Island! The big (and foolish) institutions that bought them have been burnt, they absolutely will not make that mistake again.

2. This entire episode has cost the taxpayer so much money that much more stringent controls over mortgage lending are inevitable. The idea that it could all be left to the market is now dead and buried. No one knows exactly what form these controls will take, but it's likely to include restrictions on LTV and/or maximum multiples of earnings.

3. That the flood in easy credit over the last decade didn't translate into inflation (with a resulting increase in interest rates) was an historic anomaly, probably driven by the industrialisation of China. But as both Alan Greenspan and Mervyn King have said, that was a one off benefit that's now over. So if in the forseeable future the credit tap ever did get turned on it would immediately translate into inflation, in which case interest rates would also rise and kill any house price recovery stone dead.

Bottom line is that house prices will keep falling because, as you yourself said, the mortgage tap is now firmly turned off. What's important though is that the tap will stay turned off for a long, long time, and consequently there's an equally gloomy prognosis for house prices.

Edited by silver surfer
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lenders have actually been trying to fend of customers due to too much demand , this in itself tells a story!

I think its more accurate to say that they are unable to lend. Since there has been few layoffs so far in this sector, I dont believe they are lending at 1/3 of normal levels due to too much demand.

Fending off customers is PR spin. Imagine what would happen if they said they couldnt lend much any more.

You say houses are 50% overvalued and this may be true of some areas and certain property types, but it is not the case for all areas / houses. A good 3 bed semi in Lincs / Notts can be bought for 100-125k which IS affordable for locals and as such property at this level is still selling and prices have not dipped by much. Up to 250k property in my area is doing OK and valuers are supporting realistic prices.

I'll take your word for it that your area has been less affected by HPI and will be subsequently less affected by an HPC.

Both lenders stated that they can see the end in sight with lending volumes starting to increase, it will be slow and the criteria will be much tighter, which is a good thing!, but this is a step in the right direction.

So we should see an increase in approvals very soon? I'd be suprised.

All i would say is be careful what you wish for, something that doesn't seem to be discussed too much on here is the fallout should your predictions come true, if prices were to fall 50% on average say then it is likely anyone who isn't seriously loaded will be completely screwed. The result could be a large percentage of people pushed into poverty with no roof over their heads, including many of the people on here who seem overjoyed that things are heading down!

That bits worries me too.

VMR.

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Your stated position is that property prices will continue falling until the mortgage tap is turned back on. That makes sense to me. So, when will the tap be turned back on?

Not any time soon that's for sure. The fundamental process that allowed abundant and cheap credit was mortgage securitisation, where mortgages were bundled up and sold on. That's all now finished, here's why,

1. Who in their right mind will ever buy these bundled mortgages in the next decade or even in the next generation? It would be like selling shares in a nuclear power plant right after Chernobyl or Three Mile Island! The big (and foolish) institutions that bought them have been burnt, they absolutely will not make that mistake again.

2. This entire episode has cost the taxpayer so much money that much more stringent controls over mortgage lending are inevitable. The idea that it could all be left to the market is now dead and buried. No one knows exactly what form these controls will take, but it's likely to include restrictions on LTV and/or maximum multiples of earnings.

3. That the flood in easy credit over the last decade didn't translate into inflation (with a resulting increase in interest rates) was an historic anomaly, probably driven by the industrialisation of China. But as both Alan Greenspan and Mervyn King have said, that was a one off benefit that's now over. So if in the forseeable future the credit tap ever did get turned on it would immediately translate into inflation, in which case interest rates would also rise and kill any house price recovery stone dead.

Bottom line is that house prices will keep falling because, as you yourself said, the mortgage tap is now firmly turned off. What's important though is that the tap will stay turned off for a long, long time, and consequently there's an equally gloomy prognosis for house prices.

You seem to have missed one crucial point - banks make money through lending money. The government will step in as they will be left with no other choice, the US is a perfect example.

The point i was trying to make has been completely missed, I am not suggesting that cheap credit is going to be on the cards any time soon, what is happening though is that banks are lending again after a couple of months of turning away new business.

Yes lending criteria will be tighter and LTV may come down to 20% full stop, but the fact is many banks are now in a position to lend again, which is better than not lending at all!

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Christ you are right up there with the HPC sheeple! Have you considered why this house is reduced so heavily? usually for this type of discount is associated with a REASON, something some HPC'ers have abandoned all together in their quest to out do each other with silly predictions.

If everyone shared your view we would certainly all be doomed.

Silly vendors looking for crazy prices will always exist and cannot be used an example for the state of the market in general, i was at an auction held at the property on saturday, the agent recommended a reserve of 330k, the idiot vendor set the reserve at 400k and guess what, the best bid was 330k!

I am a small and non-greedy developer in Lincs / Notts, a good house at a sensible price will still sell and quickly, prices are already down 10% locally and until the mortgage tap is turned back on (i have been discussing this with various lenders and things are improving slowly) i would expect falls to continue at there current pace. To suggest 50% without any real explanation as to why is foolish if you ask me, yes HPC crew can at last give it the almighty "i told you so" but at least be realistic!

Since 1997, UK property has increase by nearly 200%, taking a house worth £100k to, say £300k (for easy maths). A 50% HPC would send this back to £150k, still a 50% increase in a 12-15 years.

Doesn't sound sound impossible now, does it? ;)

Edited by uncle_monty
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You seem to have missed one crucial point - banks make money through lending money. The government will step in as they will be left with no other choice, the US is a perfect example.

The point i was trying to make has been completely missed, I am not suggesting that cheap credit is going to be on the cards any time soon, what is happening though is that banks are lending again after a couple of months of turning away new business.

Yes lending criteria will be tighter and LTV may come down to 20% full stop, but the fact is many banks are now in a position to lend again, which is better than not lending at all!

Believe me, I haven't missed anything, in fact I addressed this point specifically. Yes, governments step in to use the public purse to shore up some failing financial institutions...but it doesn't end there. If public money is being used then stringent regulation governing lending practises won't be far behind.

And your assertion that "banks are lending again after a couple of months of turning away new business" is flatly contradicted by the facts, new lending is still falling.

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I think its more accurate to say that they are unable to lend. Since there has been few layoffs so far in this sector, I dont believe they are lending at 1/3 of normal levels due to too much demand.

Fending off customers is PR spin. Imagine what would happen if they said they couldnt lend much any more.

I'll take your word for it that your area has been less affected by HPI and will be subsequently less affected by an HPC.

So we should see an increase in approvals very soon? I'd be suprised.

That bits worries me too.

VMR.

Hey VMR,

I agree that some lenders have struggled, but not all banks have got themselves in a mess, in fact if I undertsand correctly one bank (i will try and find the FT article so i can be more precise)has just secured massive investment to take advantage of the current market!

One mans loss is another mans gain, i think being too general is perhaps the issue.

Of course transaction levels will only get better once confidence returns, regardless of what lenders do! As you rightly say nobody knows when this will be but at least the mortgage market is headed in the right direction at long last, which is really the point i was trying to make!

Great reply VMR, someone with a realisitic view, always good in my book!

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Very Mean Reversion - I was speaking to my bank manager at Barclays last week, under the actual "Barclays" brand they apparently didn't get to involved in the crazy lending practices and as such their commercial and residential sides are pretty much business as usual (they have always had fairly strict LTV), of course rates and fee's are up but they are not turning away good business.

I know for a fact that this is not the case.

Barclays have £multi-billion exposure to sub-prime mortgage lenders and auto loan providers. At one stage in 2000-2005, Barclays was the leading funder of off the shelf lenders such as Southern Pacific, Kensington, London Mortgage Company, et al. This was done to secure the lucrative securitisation mandates and cash management balances.

This exposure has not just melted away. Barclays are in it up to their eyeballs.

I'd rather not explain how I know what I do, but I have direct knowledge. With respect, your bank manager would not have a "scooby" about the activity and exposures of the larger corporate lending teams and the investment banking division (Barclays Capital).

Monty

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I know for a fact that this is not the case.

Barclays have £multi-billion exposure to sub-prime mortgage lenders and auto loan providers. At one stage in 2000-2005, Barclays was the leading funder of off the shelf lenders such as Southern Pacific, Kensington, London Mortgage Company, et al. This was done to secure the lucrative securitisation mandates and cash management balances.

This exposure has not just melted away. Barclays are in it up to their eyeballs.

I'd rather not explain how I know what I do, but I have direct knowledge. With respect, your bank manager would not have a "scooby" about the activity and exposures of the larger corporate lending teams and the investment banking division (Barclays Capital).

Monty

I didn't say they weren't affected by recent events, the point i was trying to make is that if you walked into a barclays branch 18 months ago you would not have been offered silly LTV's or very low rates.

The fact that they indirectly dipped their fingers into all sorts of pies is a different discussion all together!

The fact is Barclays still offer pretty much the same terms as they always have but with higher rates at present, that is what i was trying to get across!

Interesting post though, banks certainly are a necessary evil!

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I am a small and greedy developer in Lincs / Notts, a good house at a sensible price will still sell and quickly, prices are already down 10% locally and until the mortgage tap is turned back on (i have been discussing this with various lenders and things are improving slowly)

IF you really believe this is going to happen then you are in for oner big wake up call..

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I agree that banks will continue to lend, and need to lend. I have just been allowed credit again after paying off a lot of debt. The guy at the bank really gave me the hard sell to take a credit card , and considering how messed up my credit rating was, I was surprised that they gave me a 2000 pound limit (until my landlord told me he gets a 14,000 pound limit). The house which kicked off this discussion looks decent, and I agree that decent houses in good areas will always be sought after, but we can`t ignore the amount of cheap credit, MEW`ing, and re-mortgaging which has pumped this economy. The fall out will be spectacular. All I can say is, how much was a 3 bed semi in Lincs/Nottingham before all this madness took off? That is your realistic guide price, because I don`t see a return to the really loose lending as the banks are using all the delaying tactics they can to avoid giving their reports, indicating to me that there is still a lot of bad news to come, and a lot of "product" to be withdrawn for those that can`t really pay back.

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Even when the banks start lending again,public opinion has now changed. For the last few years they have been told that property only goes up in value, that is why they didnt worry about taking on such stupid size loans. Now people realise that property can, and will, drop in value they willbe less willing to take out that 100% interest only mortgage at 7 X their joint salaries.

Of course some people will be stupid enough to get these sorts of mortgages if they can and these will be the people going into negative equity and having their house repossessed, therefore helping to puch prices down further.

I work with property (obviously) and there are no green shoots of recovery, none whatsoever at the moment.

By the way, those people flooding the lenders with mortgage applications, could they be remortgages. Remortgages give me most of my work at the moment.

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There is no way it is true that banks as a group stopped lending.

All that has happened is that banks now lend using more traditional lending criteria. Essentially that means that if you have borrowed "recently" at the insane criteria there is no way you can get funds now if you are now over the traditional criteria. For you the war is over but lending carries on:-)

And in time these traditional lending criteria can be majorly relaxed as things improve but you will still have a large reduction in lending compared to the time when anybody could borrow anything for anything.

Traditional lending criteria or even expanded traditional lending criteria will not support current valuations.

House price falls are not really a big deal for most people. What is more dangerous is the fall in the ability of people generally to borrow money unless they have good collateral and income. That means that business lending will not be renewed and people will lose jobs and not be able to service their debt.

No doubt there are standard economic text books that describe this cycle. And where are we now? 3 of 10?? At 10 assetts are rising and lending is expanding again, but for now lending is following assetts down. But lending continues if you meet the criteria rather than stopping.

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You say houses are 50% overvalued and this may be true of some areas and certain property types, but it is not the case for all areas / houses. A good 3 bed semi in Lincs / Notts can be bought for 100-125k which IS affordable for locals and as such property at this level is still selling and prices have not dipped by much. Up to 250k property in my area is doing OK and valuers are supporting realistic prices.

An average street in Lincoln; property sale prices for last 8 years split into pre and post 2003…

2000-03-08 3 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £30,000

2000-04-07 4 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £31,975

2000-11-10 11 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £24,500

2001-08-17 27 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £35,000

2001-08-17 16 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £33,500

2001-08-24 19 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £39,950

2002-02-28 18 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £37,500

2002-05-10 23 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £39,950

2002-08-16 4 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £54,500

2003-02-21 18 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £59,375

2003-12-10 29 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £76,000

2000 - 2003 AVERAGE = £42,000

2004-05-28 11 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £93,000

2004-07-09 3 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £78,000

2004-09-06 11 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £96,000

2004-11-08 9 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £85,000

2005-04-11 2a, Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £120,000

2005-10-14 13 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £86,000

2006-05-02 17 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £72,000

2006-10-13 18 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £90,000

2007-03-30 16 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £89,000

2007-07-18 25 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £111,000

2007-09-03 2b, Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £105,000

2007-11-23 9 Spa Street, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 5NQ £93,000

2004 – 2007 AVERAGE = £93,000

Assuming an average salary in Lincoln (amongst the lowest in the Midlands) was £20K in 2005*, it looks like property prices, gone up by over 100% in 4 years in the above example are likely to have outstripped wages substantially.

Though they do seem likely to have remained within the 4-5x single income band.

Compare to Cambridge, where the figures are more like £28K income with average prices ballooning from £130K to £280K in 4 years (100% to 9 x local single income!) and static income.

So perhaps Lincoln (and its surrounding areas?) have not gone to the totally silly extremes of other areas, but of course there are factors like London finance money skewing the Cambridge measures. So it could be claimed that Lincoln has less far to fall in absolute terms than other areas. But who can honestly say it isn’t also somewhere approaching 50% overpriced assuming real salaries haven’t gone up much since 2001…or has the Lincoln area become permanently more attractive/wealthy/productive, it’s people shrewder and more secure in their jobs with more dual incomes, more deserving of permanently more credit? Maybe.

Either houses in Lincoln (and Cambridge to a different extent) were massively undervalued 8 years ago, relative incomes have shot up or…well, what?

A massive national speculative bubble based on globally loose lending due to securities trading and temporary economic factors, with some non-fundamental regional differences?

That’s the bear call and they’ll stand by it until proven otherwise (could take some time)

PS: I realise the above examples are crude and selective but I think at least quite useful.

*http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/4745975.stm

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