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Despite Fears Of A Housing Market Crash House Price In England Will Rise By 25 Per Cent Over The Next Five Years - Nhf

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before rushing to codemn could we have some serious comments constituting a rebutal? I'll then forward the comments to David Orr at the NHF. TIA

Despite fears of a housing market crash house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years - NHF

The average house prices in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash - according to a new report published today by the National Housing Federation. The document - researched by independent economists Oxford Economics - forecasts that house prices will fall in 2009, start to recover in 2010, and then rapidly increase from 2011...

The paper, entitled Home Truths 2008, says that house prices will increase by:

5.2 per cent in 2011

9.2 per cent in 2012, and

9.3 per cent in 2013 - with the typical price at the end of the period being well above the average in 2007 of £222,600.

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...&cat=44-0-0

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before rushing to codemn could we have some serious comments constituting a rebutal? I'll then forward the comments to David Orr at the NHF. TIA

Despite fears of a housing market crash house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years - NHF

The average house prices in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash - according to a new report published today by the National Housing Federation. The document - researched by independent economists Oxford Economics - forecasts that house prices will fall in 2009, start to recover in 2010, and then rapidly increase from 2011...

The paper, entitled Home Truths 2008, says that house prices will increase by:

5.2 per cent in 2011

9.2 per cent in 2012, and

9.3 per cent in 2013 - with the typical price at the end of the period being well above the average in 2007 of £222,600.

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...&cat=44-0-0

This is priceless. We basically have an admission by a VI that house prices will fall for 2 years (albeit by small amounts in their eyes), but instead of that being it, they choose to focus on the year.......2013......!!!!!!!!!! :lol: !!!!!!!!!!!!!! How incredibly convenient for them that all the falls will be nicely wiped out by their crystal ball predications.

:rolleyes:

AFP

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Guest KingCharles1st
The paper, entitled Home Truths 2008, says that house prices will increase by:

5.2 per cent in 2011

9.2 per cent in 2012, and

9.3 per cent in 2013 - with the typical price at the end of the period being well above the average in 2007 of £222,600.

Factoring in an across board economy inflation increase of +30% P.A, I see no reason to doubt these figures- WHAT IS YOUR PROBLEM! :P

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before rushing to codemn could we have some serious comments constituting a rebutal? I'll then forward the comments to David Orr at the NHF. TIA

Despite fears of a housing market crash house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years - NHF

The average house prices in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash - according to a new report published today by the National Housing Federation. The document - researched by independent economists Oxford Economics - forecasts that house prices will fall in 2009, start to recover in 2010, and then rapidly increase from 2011...

The paper, entitled Home Truths 2008, says that house prices will increase by:

5.2 per cent in 2011

9.2 per cent in 2012, and

9.3 per cent in 2013 - with the typical price at the end of the period being well above the average in 2007 of £222,600.

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...&cat=44-0-0

OK here are a few.

Where is the evidence that demand (in the economic definition) is increasing? Can he provide the raw data?

Of the 4 million people in cramped or difficult conditions, how many are earning enough to afford today's prices? How many are in rented accommodation and how many are already struggling to pay their existing mortgages?

In recent months, we have seen mortgage arrears increase, the number of repossessions grow and new mortgages become more difficult to acquire.

Can he explain how that sentence can coneivably marry up to the concept of increasing demand?

Can he explain how poorer affordability will give rise to price rises rather than bigger price falls (which is what a sane person would conclude)?

Can he explain how his organisation is funded?

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eitherway, the bbc news has chosen to fully focus on the 25% rise, making me sooooo glad i often shut the door int he face of licence 'enforcement officers'

as i enforce the door in their faces.

powerless vested pushing *****ers.

they can enforce my ass if im paying to hear this shit.

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Interesting. Oxford Economics were predicing (+50%) £290,000 by 2011 in their 2006 report.

Sorry, but these people are just another bunch of VI muppet tools. Of course the British Broadcasting Criminals run with this story.

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OK here are a few.

Where is the evidence that demand (in the economic definition) is increasing? Can he provide the raw data?

Of the 4 million people in cramped or difficult conditions, how many are earning enough to afford today's prices? How many are in rented accommodation and how many are already struggling to pay their existing mortgages?

Can he explain how that sentence can coneivably marry up to the concept of increasing demand?

Can he explain how poorer affordability will give rise to price rises rather than bigger price falls (which is what a sane person would conclude)?

Can he explain how his organisation is funded?

Nice one Bob, more of the same please guys...

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This is priceless. We basically have an admission by a VI that house prices will fall for 2 years (albeit by small amounts in their eyes), but instead of that being it, they choose to focus on the year.......2013......!!!!!!!!!! :lol: !!!!!!!!!!!!!! How incredibly convenient for them that all the falls will be nicely wiped out by their crystal ball predications.

:rolleyes:

AFP

Only an idiot wouldn't take the view that all of the falls WILL be wiped eventually... this guy is simply saying the rises will come sooner than I suspect most believe... he's saying 5 years... personally I suspect most would be in the ten year camp, if not twelve to deliver the 25% he's talking about.

Trouble is I have never seen anyone castigating all those who have been predicting falls years before they came about ... so why get all up tight about something we all know will happen... its only the timing thats out..... this guy is no more wrong than those who predicted falls in the housing market years before they came about.

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The paper, entitled Home Truths 2008, says that house prices will increase by:

5.2 per cent in 2011

9.2 per cent in 2012, and

9.3 per cent in 2013 - with the typical price at the end of the period being well above the average in 2007 of £222,600.

Love the way they use that decimal point. Adds such an air of legitimacy. Not 5.1% or 5.3% but 5.2%. You have to ask whether the person who wrote that was dropped on there head as a baby. Given that most people seem to be about 10% out on a six month prediction, it's a wonder they can get to woithing 1/10 of a % over five years.

Edited by gordonbrown

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If inflation continues as it is then 25% over five years is probably what it'll take to get us back to where we are now in real terms.

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Only an idiot wouldn't take the view that all of the falls WILL be wiped eventually... this guy is simply saying the rises will come sooner than I suspect most believe... he's saying 5 years... personally I suspect most would be in the ten year camp, if not twelve to deliver the 25% he's talking about.

Trouble is I have never seen anyone castigating all those who have been predicting falls years before they came about ... so why get all up tight about something we all know will happen... its only the timing thats out..... this guy is no more wrong than those who predicted falls in the housing market years before they came about.

And how would we wade through a media clogged up with truisms?

The point is, the prediction is ****** and unsupportable. Most of the claims made here over the last 4 years were reasonable but turned out to be wrong for reasons we only later came to understand more fully.

Only an idiot would fail to see the distinction.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/guidelines/editorialg...rcialbusi.shtml

It is essential that the integrity of BBC programmes or other editorial output is not undermined by the commercial, business or financial interests of any programme makers, journalists, or presenters. There must never be any suggestion that commercial or financial interests have influenced BBC coverage or the subject matter of programmes or the choice of items.

Yeah right!

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before rushing to codemn could we have some serious comments constituting a rebutal? I'll then forward the comments to David Orr at the NHF. TIA

Despite fears of a housing market crash house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years - NHF

The average house prices in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash - according to a new report published today by the National Housing Federation. The document - researched by independent economists Oxford Economics - forecasts that house prices will fall in 2009, start to recover in 2010, and then rapidly increase from 2011...

The paper, entitled Home Truths 2008, says that house prices will increase by:

5.2 per cent in 2011

9.2 per cent in 2012, and

9.3 per cent in 2013 - with the typical price at the end of the period being well above the average in 2007 of £222,600.

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...&cat=44-0-0

"Demand for housing Cheap credit is going up, while the supply of new homes Cheap credit is going down."

"This means that as soon as the economic outlook improves house prices will resume their previous upward trajectory."

They haven't stated when or how the economic outlook will improve.

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before rushing to codemn could we have some serious comments constituting a rebutal? I'll then forward the comments to David Orr at the NHF. TIA

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but they say they predict house prices to fall by 4.4% in 2008..... But we're only at July and (according to Halifax and Nationwide) HPs are already down more than that?!

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Thoughts; Hometrack are suggesting average house prices are now at Oct 2006 levels, once they fall back to 2005 levels (as they surely will, using the current trend this will happen by March/April 2009) could that be the bottom of the market; a 22% fall from peak to trough? Will the inevitable govt support delay prices falling back further and then if the mortgage market is rescued and virtually no new houses built between now and 2010 could we see a modest rise of 4% per year thereafter, which in real terms would be nothing given real inflation could be running rampant at 10%+? <_<

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Love the way they use that decimal point. Adds such an air of legitimacy. Not 5.1% or 5.3% but 5.2%. You have to ask whether the person who wrote that was dropped on there head as a baby. Given that most people seem to be about 10% out on a six month prediction, it's a wonder they can get to woithing 1/10 of a % over five years.

Quite.

Could we please demand to see the model for the prediction and full calculations for these figures.

If the figures are plucked out of thin air, the fake accuracy implied by the decimal point is transparently devious.

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I suppose the question to ask Oxford Economics is who exactly will be financing 8x and 9x income multiples to support their model? seeing they conveniently seem to have overlooked the elephant in the living-room

Edited by Giraffe

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Quite.

Could we please demand to see the model for the prediction and full calculations for these figures.

If the figures are plucked out of thin air, the fake accuracy implied by the decimal point is transparently devious.

:lol:

and some of the economic assumptions behind the prediction would be good.

As mentioned earlier, predicted inflation could be the killer, but so could economic growth, a freeing up of the RMBS market, lender's standards going back to the bad old days of the last few years are probably in there somewhere.

An implied assumption I suspect is complicity from buyers, who will forget that prices fell in the last 3 years and suddenly join a frenzy to pay more more more. If they could perhaps point to an episode in history where this happened in any market collapse in the last millenium, it would be great to see.

I think it is just as likely that politicians will need to be seen to be doing something to prevent the same thing happening again will put some draconian measures in place to prevent another housing bubble from re-occurring, in terms of perhaps LTV, affordability and income multiples. Although it probably won't work.

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And how would we wade through a media clogged up with truisms?

The point is, the prediction is ****** and unsupportable. Most of the claims made here over the last 4 years were reasonable but turned out to be wrong for reasons we only later came to understand more fully.

Only an idiot would fail to see the distinction.

Not that I support his point of view... he has supported it... disagree with it sure but to say its unsupportable is misleading.

You say the claims made here over the last four years were reasonable... Sure they were reasoned but the point is they were wrong... your excuse... those making the claims didn't understand what was going on !

It appears theres NO distinction between the two... a wrong prediction is a wrong prediction whichever way you cut it, only an idiot would try an make excuses for it.

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before rushing to codemn could we have some serious comments constituting a rebutal? I'll then forward the comments to David Orr at the NHF. TIA

Despite fears of a housing market crash house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years - NHF

The average house prices in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash - according to a new report published today by the National Housing Federation. The document - researched by independent economists Oxford Economics - forecasts that house prices will fall in 2009, start to recover in 2010, and then rapidly increase from 2011...

The paper, entitled Home Truths 2008, says that house prices will increase by:

5.2 per cent in 2011

9.2 per cent in 2012, and

9.3 per cent in 2013 - with the typical price at the end of the period being well above the average in 2007 of £222,600.

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...&cat=44-0-0

There is no need to rebut this. The public have a phrase now "the credit crunch" to explain why prices are falling. Articles like this will be ignored until some VI comes up with a credible explanation of how "the credit crunch" is fixed. This article doesn't do that. Why dignify it with response?

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... a wrong prediction is a wrong prediction whichever way you cut it, only an idiot would try an make excuses for it.

Not at all, not where one prediction is based on a determined effort to understand through intelligent sometimes heated debate, while another looks like simplistic hype.

Nobody will argue with your earlier truism - but it's of zero value.

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before rushing to codemn could we have some serious comments constituting a rebutal? I'll then forward the comments to David Orr at the NHF. TIA

Despite fears of a housing market crash house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years - NHF

The average house prices in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash - according to a new report published today by the National Housing Federation. The document - researched by independent economists Oxford Economics - forecasts that house prices will fall in 2009, start to recover in 2010, and then rapidly increase from 2011...

The paper, entitled Home Truths 2008, says that house prices will increase by:

5.2 per cent in 2011

9.2 per cent in 2012, and

9.3 per cent in 2013 - with the typical price at the end of the period being well above the average in 2007 of £222,600.

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...&cat=44-0-0

Yes, I believe its influencial twats who want ALL the glory and ALL the profits from ever increasing house prices and sticking a two fingered salute at the next generation of homeowners.

Pure greed if ever I saw it.

Of course if lenders went back to the one wage mortgage, a parent would be able to stay at home and bring up the kids, society will improve.

I blame mortgage lenders and the government for the breakdown of this county (and idiots who make up these stories fuel it too.)

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Not at all, not where one prediction is based on a determined effort to understand through intelligent sometimes heated debate, while another looks like simplistic hype.

Nobody will argue with your earlier truism - but it's of zero value.

But at least its true.

I think you really do seek to defend the indefensible here..... those who were calling the market down since 2003 based their views on known data and an attempt to understand what was going on... they were for the most part massively out in terms of timing and perhaps in size , those now who make any prediction whatsoever that house will rise at some stage get dismissed as "simplistic hype".....whatever the work that went into their view......... you are entirely wrong to seperate the two with one being an honest look at things and the other being hype... both have the characteristics of Vi's within them and should therefore be judged in the same way.

I suspect that most views or predictions on the recovery will be wrong in the same way that most views on the crash tiiming were massively out..... it doesn't however mean they should be dismissed as "simplistic hype" as to do so would illustrate you were operating double standards... disagree with them sure but perhaps its best not to throw you love of "intelligent heated debate" out at the same time.

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But at least its true...

...I suspect that most views or predictions on the recovery will be wrong in the same way that most views on the crash tiiming were massively out..... it doesn't however mean they should be dismissed as "simplistic hype" as to do so would illustrate you were operating double standards... disagree with them sure but perhaps its best not to throw you love of "intelligent heated debate" out at the same time.

But as I said in my earlier post on this thread they predict HPs to fall by 4.4% in 2008, but we're only in July and they've already lost more than that. Surely this then passes from mere hype into the bracket of the just plain daft?

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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