OLDFTB Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Region: Greater London • Quarterly Change (Q2 2008 on Q1 2008) -4.3% • Annual Change (Q2 2008 on Q2 2007) -7.3% Region: East Midlands • Quarterly Change (Q2 2008 on Q1 2008) -7.2% • Annual Change (Q2 2008 on Q2 2007) -6.7% Region: South East • Quarterly Change (Q2 2008 on Q1 2008) -6.4% • Annual Change (Q2 2008 on Q2 2007) -7.2% Region: Northern Ireland • Quarterly Change (Q2 2008 on Q1 2008) -14.6% • Annual Change (Q2 2008 on Q2 2007) -21.1% http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/quarterlyregionalcomments.asp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 (edited) Region: Northern Ireland• Quarterly Change (Q2 2008 on Q1 2008) -14.6% • Annual Change (Q2 2008 on Q2 2007) -21.1% http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/quarterlyregionalcomments.asp I remember posts about people in NI being bullied into buying by friends and family. Let's hope they don't have a sudden need to sell. Edit: I see they have played their joker early and are quoting the 10 year rise as a comparator already! Edited July 27, 2008 by the end is nigh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elizabeth Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Apologies OLDFTB for starting new thread but I thought the title alone deserved a 'headline'. This is where the tide officially turns. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...p;#entry1233382 I was facinated by the information that Halifax provided to compare with. Telling us house price growth over the past 5 years and 10 years. Lets look on the bright side eh? Hmmm.... House prices fell by 4.3% in Greater London in Q2 2008 (quarterly losses). Annually, house prices in London fell by 7.3%, above the UK average fall of 6.1%. (Year on Year Falls) Over the last 5 years house price growth in the region is 33%. Over the last 10 years house price growth in the region is 171%. At £291,533 the average house price in Greater London is 57% above the UK average of £185,625. The falls are reflected across ALL areas. U.K.…….11.09% North…….8.43% Yorks&Humb…….3.19% N.West…….6.71% E.Mids…….3.47% W.Mids…….3.59% E.Ang…….2.93% Wales…….6.95% S.West…….7.21% S.East…….7.32% Gr.Lon…….21.14% N.Ire…….2.05% Scot…….6.06% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OLDFTB Posted July 27, 2008 Author Share Posted July 27, 2008 Much better thread than mine. Thanks Elizabeth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elizabeth Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Much better thread than mine. Thanks Elizabeth. Your welcome. I just don't get why people don't understand the significance. After 10 years of Year on Year rises, EVERY QUARTER - RELENTLESSLY this is the turning point. And the scale of it in just one quarter says that it really is going to be a tsunami. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
29929BlackTuesday Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Am I being thick? Were these figures released today? If not why were they not made much of when they were? Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elizabeth Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Am I being thick? Were these figures released today? If not why were they not made much of when they were? Thanks. Don't know. I am waiting and watching for the DCLG figures myself (I will let you know the day they are out). I just picked up on OLDFTBs post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tin Foil Hat Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 If the London figures are down 20% yoy, then this is an official crash? I seem to remember it's 20% over a year which is the technical mark of a house price crash. TFH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
29929BlackTuesday Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 If the London figures are down 20% yoy, then this is an official crash? I seem to remember it's 20% over a year which is the technical mark of a house price crash.TFH Good point. We'll be seeing that as the Express headline tomorrow won't we? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
29929BlackTuesday Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 OLDFTB - when were these figures out? Are they real?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BufferBear Bitcoin Bull Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 (edited) If the London figures are down 20% yoy, then this is an official crash? I seem to remember it's 20% over a year which is the technical mark of a house price crash.TFH There are different perspectives on what constitutes a crash but I did hear when the Footsie dropped by 20% (don't think it has to be in one year and the last crash certainly was not) that it was now officially a bear market. From my perspective, once we have 2 quarters of negative 'growth' there will be no hiding it anymore. Regardless of the data, we 'know' the crash has arrived for real this time. Edited July 27, 2008 by Buffer Bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReggiePerrin Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Interestingly the tables at the back of the report are doing a 10 year comparison, i.e. prices in 1998 q2 compared to 2008 q2. Great if you bought a house 10 years ago, absolutely meaningless if you bought a year or so ago. Me thinks they're trying to hide something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mirage Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 (edited) Region: Greater London• Quarterly Change (Q2 2008 on Q1 2008) -4.3% 16.1% annualised fall. Ouch! This should be a pretty good guide to the falls this year. Quarter to quarter changes are not very volatile. I wonder if it seasonally adjusted though? Must find out... Edited July 27, 2008 by mirage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mirage Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 (edited) And 46.8% annualised for NI. Sweet Cheeses! Edited July 27, 2008 by mirage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mirage Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 23.2% annualised for the south east! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mirage Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Interestingly the tables at the back of the report are doing a 10 year comparison, i.e. prices in 1998 q2 compared to 2008 q2. Great if you bought a house 10 years ago, absolutely meaningless if you bought a year or so ago. Me thinks they're trying to hide something? Yes it's fantastic isn't it? The fall in prices last quarter needs to be seen in the context of the strong rise in house prices over the longer term. Oh, yes it is extremely important that the MASSIVE FALLS are seen in this ten year context. Particularly if you bought in summer 07 and are deep in negative equity. Because in context, you see....well ok, you're still in negative equity and it's still going to get worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mirage Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 (edited) • Wales Index (seasonally adjusted) 615.0• Quarterly Change (Q2 2008 on Q1 2008) 0.4% • Annual Change (Q2 2008 on Q2 2007) -2.9% • Standardised Average House Price in Wales (seasonally adjusted) £159,144. Que? Good spot, btw OLDFTB! Edited July 27, 2008 by mirage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BandWagon Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Region: Greater London• Quarterly Change (Q2 2008 on Q1 2008) -4.3% • Annual Change (Q2 2008 on Q2 2007) -7.3% Region: East Midlands • Quarterly Change (Q2 2008 on Q1 2008) -7.2% • Annual Change (Q2 2008 on Q2 2007) -6.7% Region: South East • Quarterly Change (Q2 2008 on Q1 2008) -6.4% • Annual Change (Q2 2008 on Q2 2007) -7.2% Region: Northern Ireland • Quarterly Change (Q2 2008 on Q1 2008) -14.6% • Annual Change (Q2 2008 on Q2 2007) -21.1% Is this the spring bounce? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crash2006 Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 (edited) Annual Average Earnings £ April Greater London 2005 44,751 2006 47,610 2007 49,728this is what i find as the joke, i'd like to see how skewed the bell curve is. 'd like to see the mode. Edited July 27, 2008 by crash2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mirage Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Annual Average Earnings £ April Greater London 2005 44,751 2006 47,610 2007 49,728this is what i find as the joke, i'd like to see how skewed the bell curve is. 'd like to see the mode. Yes, it's ludicrously unrepresentative of the "average man". I do wish that we would start using the median in the UK a bit more. I don't really give a toss what the average house or sallary is but the median is much more informative. The US seems to be able to deal with medians. However over there they have other anoyying statistical habits like saying "the median price fell by 6% in June" when they mean the YoY fall in June was 6%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OLDFTB Posted July 27, 2008 Author Share Posted July 27, 2008 OLDFTB - when were these figures out? Are they real?? As far as i know they were published within the last few days.. They are genuine. Are you shocked at the rate of decline then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble Pricker Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Annual Average Earnings £ April Greater London 2005 44,751 2006 47,610 2007 49,728this is what i find as the joke, i'd like to see how skewed the bell curve is. 'd like to see the mode. Halifax use average earnings of males in full time employment (thus excluding all females, all part-time workers, and the multimillion salaries of footballers and City fat cats bring up the average, because they use average not median). That's how they can skew the earnings so high. This, in my opinion, borders on criminal public outright lying conducted by HBOS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cells Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Annual Average Earnings £ April Greater London 2005 44,751 2006 47,610 2007 49,728this is what i find as the joke, i'd like to see how skewed the bell curve is. 'd like to see the mode. yep i was surprised to see average wage in 2007 for London was £49k and £34k for the rest of the country. i don't believe this at all! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BandWagon Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Annual Average Earnings £ Where did you find the earnings numbers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Little Professor Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Where did you find the earnings numbers? They're on the second page of each of the reports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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