Why London Will Crash The Hardest

[cells]

these are all modest 3bed family homes, seperated by about 7 miles which is about 25m drive or 15m by tube. the first set is in a quite area of london which is quite nice in many respects imo. the second set is in N1 area of london which was a shithole about 10-15years ago when i used to play in the local parks ect as a child. the first set has seen perhaps 50% HPI since 2000 and the second set has seen about 250% HPI.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-183...=6&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-212...=5&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-186...=6&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-222...=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-223...=1&tr_t=buy

can anyone justify buying one of the second sets over the first set?? the only thing i can consider is the greater fool hope, that a greater fool will save me as when i sell in X-years it will have gone up so dont care too much about value for money.

can someone help me here, why would you pay 500k more for the second set?

Edited July 27, 2008 by cells

[Elizabeth]

Really simple. it was the flight from the suburb to the inner cities. They became trendy. That is where the money went. There is currently a flight out of the inner cities so I imagine things will even up. It is a neccessary part of the market function to have somewhere for growth to occur but the only way to do this is for somewhere else to decline (supply and limited demand). In this case I think that places like N1 will stay steady because of the London pressure factor and then over about 20 years become derelect again (unless of course there are environmental / "decline oil" pressures.)

[mirage]

I don't know if it justifies the multiple, but I was immediately struck by how much nicer the second group were, and how not in Chingford.

[cells]

Really simple. it was the flight from the suburb to the inner cities. They became trendy. That is where the money went.

Why?

There is currently a flight out of the inner cities so I imagine things will even up.

Why?

I don't know if it justifies the multiple, but I was immediately struck by how much nicer the second group were, and how not in Chingford.

Maybe our tastes are different in homes but what about the second group is nicer.

I see ultra dense homes right next to busy roads with small gardens if any.

[Elizabeth]

Why?

1. Flight out of burbs into city centres.

Why?

All speculation but I would say -

Oil. Commenced early 1980s in wake of late 70s fuel crisis.

Decreasing family sizes. It was driven by YUPPIES and DINKS.

2. Flight back to burbs.

Why?

Inner city violence, smog, noise, childhood asthma (the Ys and Ds started breeding), lack of gardens, cheaper petrol I guess.

[thecrashingisles]

Maybe our tastes are different in homes but what about the second group is nicer.

The journey into the City is a lot shorter from the Angel than it is from Chingford. Apart from that I'd agree with you. Previously the people with that sort of money would have preferred a quieter existence than a small terrace in central London would provide.

[mirage]

Maybe our tastes are different in homes but what about the second group is nicer.

I see ultra dense homes right next to busy roads with small gardens if any.

Maybe I'm just a sucker for interior design and over influenced by the scruffy and tasteless state of the first group. However, the first group looks equally small and cramped, look architecturally horrible from the outside and inside and are not in central London, but in Chingford or thereabouts.

Sure, they have slightly better gardens, but that it probably because they are not in a city. The second group are not on busy roads, but a quiet resi road and a cul de sac. They look very nicely proportioned Victorian terraces with nice warm old brick. At least one of them has three floors.

No way they are worth three quarters of a mill, I agree. But they are much nicer than the chav houses and should certainly be more expensive (and they always will be).

Edited July 27, 2008 by mirage

[cells]

1. Flight out of burbs into city centres.

Why?

All speculation but I would say -

Oil. Commenced early 1980s in wake of late 70s fuel crisis.

Decreasing family sizes. It was driven by YUPPIES and DINKS.

i dont think it has much to do with petrol going from 60p to 120p over the last 10 years. why would someone pay 500k more to save £500 on petrol a year?

same with YUPPIES and DINKS, it would only take them 20 minutes more in commuting if they worked in the city. why pay 3x as much for roughly the same thing.

imho it was pure speculation. buy the priciest property you can in the blind belief that it will go up in price hence no need for value.

2. Flight back to burbs.

Why?

Inner city violence, smog, noise, childhood asthma (the Ys and Ds started breeding), lack of gardens, cheaper petrol I guess.

i would agree with a flight out of these areas into "burbs". they just dont offer the value one would get just a few miles out.

[cells]

Maybe I'm just a sucker for interior design and over influenced by the scruffy and tasteless state of the first group. However, the first group looks equally small and cramped, look architecturally horrible from the outside and inside and are not in central London, but in Chingford or thereabouts.

Sure, they have slightly better gardens, but that it probably because they are not in a city. The second group are not on busy roads, but a quiet resi road and a cul de sac. They look very nicely proportioned Victorian terraces with nice warm old brick. At least one of them has three floors.

No way they are worth three quarters of a mill, I agree. But they are much nicer than the chav houses and should certainly be more expensive (and they always will be).

for me internal and external sq mt and local area are more important than what bricks they are made off. i would also prefer chingford by far to N1 having lived in both for about 7-8 years

what about these?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-198...=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-214...=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-211...=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-195...=3&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-221...=4&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-223...=4&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-180...=5&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-170...=5&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-222...=7&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-181...=9&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-166...10&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-172...10&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-181...14&tr_t=buy

[Mr Nice]

people have been moving back to the cities all over the world over the past 10 years or so.

a lot of it is younger people with more money.

at 50 you may think your nice suburban quiet life is the best, but for the younger people being in the center of things has a lot of appeal. (actually for many of the older people as well.)

it's probably something that will continue on indefinitely, with some prefering bigger gardens in the suburbs, and some preferring city life.

Edited July 27, 2008 by Mr Nice

[mirage]

for me internal and external sq mt and local area are more important than what bricks they are made off. i would also prefer chingford by far to N1 having lived in both for about 7-8 years

Well fair enough, I don't know the areas well. However I wouldn't be suprised if the terraces had the same or more square metres than the standard layout semis.

what about these?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-198...=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-214...=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-211...=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-195...=3&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-221...=4&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-223...=4&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-180...=5&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-170...=5&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-222...=7&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-181...=9&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-166...10&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-172...10&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-181...14&tr_t=buy

I don't know. I am not actually looking to move to Chingford.

Clearly you pay a lot more for a square foot in London than Chingford. If you prefer Chingford, then you are in a great deal of luck it seems to me.

[cells]

people have been moving back to the cities all over the world over the past 10 years or so.

a lot of it is younger people with more money.

at 50 you may think your nice suburban quiet life is the best, but for the younger people being in the center of things has a lot of appeal. (actually for many of the older people as well.)

it's probably something that will continue on indefinitely, with some prefering bigger gardens in the suburbs, and some preferring city life.

This doesn't make sense to me,

you can get a 6bed large detached house for sub 2m in very good areas in suburbs. The same 2m will get you a 4 bed flat in Kensington at best. Why

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-219...=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-860...=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-757...=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-104...=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-201...=1&tr_t=buy

spot the difference

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-198...=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-180...=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-208...=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-104...=2&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-202...=2&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-200...=3&tr_t=buy

[Bigtimebear]

The reason people pay £500k more to live in Islington rather than Chingford is because they can afford it. City bankers, lawyers etc on six figure salaries and media types would prefer to live 10 mins from work in City or WE and these houses are 5 mins from Islington's restaurants/pubs/bars - one street alone (Upper St) has 100 of them.

Having said that they are £150k or so cheaper now than last year..................poss because Chav city is on their doorstep.............

[cells]

The reason people pay £500k more to live in Islington rather than Chingford is because they can afford it. City bankers, lawyers etc on six figure salaries and media types would prefer to live 10 mins from work in City or WE and these houses are 5 mins from Islington's restaurants/pubs/bars - one street alone (Upper St) has 100 of them.

Having said that they are £150k or so cheaper now than last year..................poss because Chav city is on their doorstep.............

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-201...=1&tr_t=buy

or

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-757...=1&tr_t=buy

or

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-198...=1&tr_t=buy

N1 is a shithole, always had been, always will be.

i would understand if people chose to live in Kensington, it is pricey but it is nice. why anyone would pay 750k for a modest house in n1 is beyond my understanding.

[cells]

You are missing something, I think.

Prices have a long way to fall both in the City and in the Suburbs.

It is not the "connected suburbs" that will suffer - ie those with good transport links,

it is the "stranded suburbs", and the rural areas without jobs to offer people.

Areas of the city will get hit too. Those sort of badly connected -Muswell Hill areas, and

maybe south of the river, may suffer alot, unless there are enough local jobs

i dont agree bubb, petrol is cheap and even if it went up another 400% it would be cheap. it only costs 10p in petrol to move 1mile. if oil goes up 400% that is 25p per mile. imo energy is in a bubble now anyway.

real central nice areas will always command a premium such as Kensington, they will fall but not a lot (my guess is about 30-40%

i see areas like N1 taking the biggest hit in the crash. imo those 775k 3bed terrace homes will be down to 300-350k in todays money (50-60% off from todays prices).

i see the cheap suburbs doing the best, perhaps down 25%.

[Fairies Wear Boots]

can anyone justify buying one of the second sets over the first set?? the only thing i can consider is the greater fool hope, that a greater fool will save me as when i sell in X-years it will have gone up so dont care too much about value for money.

can someone help me here, why would you pay 500k more for the second set?

I'd much rather live in N1 than Chingford. The bike to work would much easier for a start off. But yeah paying trebble for being so close does seem rather alot. I think most people do think they'll be getting all the money back, and maybe as it's close and desirable, they'll make a packet too (hurrah!).

So do you think the Chingford ones could drop 20 percent in a crash, and these places in N1 50 percent?

[Tin Foil Hat]

Fact is, no matter how many of these suckers sporting manbags, little beards and effeminate clothing, and the ladies with their expensive sunglasses there are buying these nasty trendy flats in Homerton or Hackney, the areas are all going down the toilet.

It's very unsafe at night now, and people (us included) have seen the desirability of the burbs. In our case, the area we were in (SE18 - Woolwich/Plumstead) changed over the last 10 years into a series of ghetto's with increasing warfare between the 'yout' that inhabit them. There are now confirmed gangs using guns 1/2 mile from where we were.

So, our gamble is that we sold Dec 07, got top for our house and have bought a semi deep in burb/country territory (I look out onto people riding horse and a field now). It's cost us more, we have a 60% LTV all done.

My assumption is over the next few years of the downturn, this area stands as good a chance of any of taking slightly less of a hit as it is nice, and there isn't a vast supply. We might be wrong, but I would rather be in a place where I know I am in a normal decent place and take this gamble, than sit where we were and wonder when we would witness or get crossfire from the lawlessness that is so endemic now in London.

The press don't report what it's really like there, and I reckon most of the country would be shocked to know how people are being allowed to behave now. Chav just doesn't come into it. We're well below chavvery, this is real 3rd world stuff.

TFH

[cells]

I'd much rather live in N1 than Chingford. The bike to work would much easier for a start off. But yeah paying trebble for being so close does seem rather alot. I think most people do think they'll be getting all the money back, and maybe as it's close and desirable, they'll make a packet too (hurrah!).

So do you think the Chingford ones could drop 20 percent in a crash, and these places in N1 50 percent?

i never lived in N1 but we have cousins who lived there so visted probably once a week. this was probably 93-2000.

the area was a total shitehole, as a child you where fearful of wondering too far from places you knew and I'm sure adults where more fearful.

the local markets where a tip, council housing made up a lot of the stock. everywhere was crap, grim, graffiti or urination everywhere. or at least that was my perception and what i saw of the area.

some of the opening scenes of 28 days later where shot in N1, they where trying to portray a devastated london overrun by the living dead. they didn't need any specie affects with N1

3 bed council flats where sold about 2000 for 40-60k (not inc the discount), the same ones are now on asking for 260k. what exactly has changed in the last 8 years to warrant a 500% increase?

i know people say that N1 has been regenerated and is nicer but i cant see how in 8 years an area can change so much short of removing all the chav which hasn't been done.

some other areas like chingford, which imo is far nicer. you can walk around with no fear. there are large open spaces for kids to play or just walk. you dont need to cross the same road 10 times to avoid iffy people. prices there have gone up perhaps only 70-80% since 2000 compared to 500% for parts of N1.

so yes, i expect areas such as chingford to crash far less than areas such as N1.

[Converted Lurker]

Arlington Avenue, London, N1 £775,000 was costing 400K in 2003, that's where it's headed back to IMHO. Folk forget that parts of London have nearly doubled in value over the past 4 years, no where else has done this in the UK which is why IMHO it'll crash hardest, both in real money and percentage terms.

[thecrashingisles]

Arlington Avenue, London, N1 £775,000 was costing 400K in 2003, that's where it's headed back to IMHO. Folk forget that parts of London have nearly doubled in value over the past 4 years, no where else has done this in the UK which is why IMHO it'll crash hardest, both in real money and percentage terms.

Most of that increase came since 2006 and the stupid thing is that asking prices are still about 50% above the 2006 prices in many areas. Absolute madness with current lending policies.