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Green Shoots Alert!

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Oh yes, here they are! The green shoots of recovery!

Article in FT

Podcast in FT

Apparently the fact that various corporations have been sniffing around other corporations to do with housing, like banks, together with the mortgage rate reductions for low LTV borrowers recently, mean that house prices are set to start inflating again come the autumn.

Never mind that mortgage approvals have plunged by two thirds.

Never mind that the housing market is highly illiquid and takes years to correct and recover.

Never mind that first time buyers still won't be funded because they don't have 10-30% deposits.

Never mind that affordability continues to worsen as we head into recession in the face of higher inflation and historic levels of non-mortgage debt.

Never mind that income multiples are still way over the long term range.

I would love to hear how she thinks a "pick up" in the market that excludes first time buyers is actually going to be a pick up. As we all know, these are the base of the pyramid. I suppose she thinks that all these eager "bargain hunters" waiting for a "sniff of recovery" to "snap up" houses with cash "without selling their own homes" are just going to be happy with two houses for ever. If so it will be the first housing recovery fuelled by a small group of rich people doubling their number of houses per head.

Unlike the early 1990s, when the property crash was triggered by lightning- fast interest rate increases and confidence in the housing market was shattered for many years, this time there is still huge pent-up demand for buying property.

A classic. I'm a bit disturbed it's in the FT though...

Edited by mirage

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It's interesting isn't it? Her entire thesis is based on "it's different this time", ignoring the history of all previous bubbles, particularly housing ones, and foolishly thinking that the prospect of losing huge amounts of money has no bearing on people's reluctance to buy. No, they are champing at the bit, it is merely that those nasty mortgage companies won't lend to them.

Now, even though those companies still won't lend at high LTV, the fact that they are slightly reducing rates on mortgages with 25% deposits means that the entire market will reverse and start booming again!

Total moron.

The B&B doesn't think so though!:

Personal Finance Newcomer Journalist of the Year:

Sharlene Goff (Financial Times) won the award for the Bradford & Bingley Personal Finance Newcomer Journalist of the Year. The category rewards journalists who have less than two years experience in covering the sector. The judges highlighted Sharlene’s “clear understanding of the subjects she covers”.

Edited by mirage

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Personal Finance Newcomer Journalist of the Year:

Sharlene Goff (Financial Times) won the award for the Bradford & Bingley Personal Finance Newcomer Journalist of the Year. The category rewards journalists who have less than two years experience in covering the sector. The judges highlighted Sharlene’s “clear understanding of the subjects she covers”.

That'll have been in the same way that that B&B Director's understood their lines of finance and how to buy dodgy mortgages that US corporations don't want.

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Oh yes, here they are! The green shoots of recovery!

Article in FT

Podcast in FT

Apparently the fact that various corporations have been sniffing around other corporations to do with housing, like banks, together with the mortgage rate reductions for low LTV borrowers recently, mean that house prices are set to start inflating again come the autumn.

Never mind that mortgage approvals have plunged by two thirds.

Never mind that the housing market is highly illiquid and takes years to correct and recover.

Never mind that first time buyers still won't be funded because they don't have 10-30% deposits.

Never mind that affordability continues to worsen as we head into recession in the face of higher inflation and historic levels of non-mortgage debt.

Never mind that income multiples are still way over the long term range.

I would love to hear how she thinks a "pick up" in the market that excludes first time buyers is actually going to be a pick up. As we all know, these are the base of the pyramid. I suppose she thinks that all these eager "bargain hunters" waiting for a "sniff of recovery" to "snap up" houses with cash "without selling their own homes" are just going to be happy with two houses for ever. If so it will be the first housing recovery fuelled by a small group of rich people doubling their number of houses per head.

A classic. I'm a bit disturbed it's in the FT though...

Me too. The Express I could understand. But this kind of dollop in the FT?

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This is the one to watch actually. When she says that she can see no end to the gloom, BUY (until then sit tight). I can't remember who, but some time back (in years) someone posted some clips from the last crash. The bottom of the crash was when the Express I think it was, having held its cheery position for 3 or years, gave in and said they could see no end to the gloom. The next quarter the figures were up.

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It must be the economist in her that thinks that rising inflation and a forthcoming recession are ideal conditions for prices to start rising. If inflation does not subside most likely caused by the recession then we might see large interest rate hikes, mind you under this desperate government who knows what they will do to prevent the inevitable.

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Aaargh! That woman should be sacked from the FT!!!

She has always ramped property - up until just a few months ago she was pushing a different flavour of investment each week in the Weekend FT's Money section. One week it would be student BTL, the next flats in Romania etc.

Sharlene Goff brings the FT into disrepute and I have long hated her with a passion!

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Me too. The Express I could understand. But this kind of dollop in the FT?

The only useful parts of the FT are The Lex Column, Companies and Markets and specifically The Short View. The rest is just mee-ja noise. Anyone who makes any kind of proper financial decision making definitely does not read the FT cover to cover, far less take any of these articles seriously.

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The only useful parts of the FT are The Lex Column, Companies and Markets and specifically The Short View. The rest is just mee-ja noise. Anyone who makes any kind of proper financial decision making definitely does not read the FT cover to cover, far less take any of these articles seriously.

Jim Rogers reckons it's the world's best paper. Perhaps that says more about newspapers than the FT...

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Blackstone and the like are "Opportunity Funds". They are hugely rich and can buy whatever they like when they like. In this case they will have spotted a company not the market, that is at rock bottom i.e. Paragon and it is obviously underperforming.

She does say "These shouldn't be read as a sign that the market has bottomed out".

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Oh yes, here they are! The green shoots of recovery!

Article in FT

Podcast in FT

Apparently the fact that various corporations have been sniffing around other corporations to do with housing, like banks, together with the mortgage rate reductions for low LTV borrowers recently, mean that house prices are set to start inflating again come the autumn.

Never mind that mortgage approvals have plunged by two thirds.

Never mind that the housing market is highly illiquid and takes years to correct and recover.

Never mind that first time buyers still won't be funded because they don't have 10-30% deposits.

Never mind that affordability continues to worsen as we head into recession in the face of higher inflation and historic levels of non-mortgage debt.

Never mind that income multiples are still way over the long term range.

I would love to hear how she thinks a "pick up" in the market that excludes first time buyers is actually going to be a pick up. As we all know, these are the base of the pyramid. I suppose she thinks that all these eager "bargain hunters" waiting for a "sniff of recovery" to "snap up" houses with cash "without selling their own homes" are just going to be happy with two houses for ever. If so it will be the first housing recovery fuelled by a small group of rich people doubling their number of houses per head.

A classic. I'm a bit disturbed it's in the FT though...

Paragon, the troubled buy-to-let mortgage lender, has caught the eye of Blackstone and TPG Capital, two US private equity houses, while RIT Capital Partners has agreed to back the launch of a new mortgage lender, Checkmate Mortgages.

Checkmate mortgages, Surely not... "Checkmate" You lose! :o

Edited by doom and gloom merchant

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Blackstone and the like are "Opportunity Funds". They are hugely rich and can buy whatever they like when they like. In this case they will have spotted a company not the market, that is at rock bottom i.e. Paragon and it is obviously underperforming.

She does say "These shouldn't be read as a sign that the market has bottomed out".

No, she thinks it's a sign it will bottom in the autumn! Along with miniscule interest rate reductions on 25% deposit mortgages!

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Me too. The Express I could understand. But this kind of dollop in the FT?

Wasn't there another one from the FT a month or two ago? Can't remember if it was me or someone else who flagged it up, sounded like unbelievable positivity, most of us were aghast. Wish I could remember the article and its posi-drive predictions. I'm not much of a hand with the Search tool on here.

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  • 401 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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