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Guildford Trends

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These are median prices, so will be lower than the usually quoted mean average, but probably more reliable. Advertised values are asking prices from findaproperty. Land Registry prices are for GU1 and GU2. It's going to get interesting...

MedianAskingPrices.png

post-5436-1217096401_thumb.png

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These are median prices, so will be lower than the usually quoted mean average, but probably more reliable. Advertised values are asking prices from findaproperty. Land Registry prices are for GU1 and GU2. It's going to get interesting...

MedianAskingPrices.png

I guess from your chart we can see where Guildford may be heading and it is probably a good barometer for the rest of the county. Do you have more up to date figures, I guess the LR stuff will be falling by June, despite the lag.

Most towns in Surrey seem to be following broadly the same course. If you look at the upmystreet.com graphs, the ups and downs in individual towns (with enough homes in to give a decent sample) and the overall Surrey average seem to track very well. I have produce a chart in the post below that shows the number of properties for sales versus the last 8 years annual average sales volumes for Surrey. Interstingly, the more expensive the homes, the greater fraction of unsold stock - to me this shows it is city types who have been getting hit the most and that Country Houses could plunge in value as a lot of froth comes off.

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I guess from your chart we can see where Guildford may be heading and it is probably a good barometer for the rest of the county. Do you have more up to date figures, I guess the LR stuff will be falling by June, despite the lag.

Most towns in Surrey seem to be following broadly the same course. If you look at the upmystreet.com graphs, the ups and downs in individual towns (with enough homes in to give a decent sample) and the overall Surrey average seem to track very well. I have produce a chart in the post below that shows the number of properties for sales versus the last 8 years annual average sales volumes for Surrey. Interstingly, the more expensive the homes, the greater fraction of unsold stock - to me this shows it is city types who have been getting hit the most and that Country Houses could plunge in value as a lot of froth comes off.

The Q2 LR data isn't complete, but I've added what's available to the graph below. I've also added the LR data thresholds for bottom/top 25% of property. As you suggest, the higher price property looks like it's taking more of a hit.

GuildfordHousePrices_July08.png

post-5436-1217289184_thumb.png

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The Q2 LR data isn't complete, but I've added what's available to the graph below. I've also added the LR data thresholds for bottom/top 25% of property. As you suggest, the higher price property looks like it's taking more of a hit.

GuildfordHousePrices_July08.png

HP, the new graph is really interesting. There does seem to be something here in terms of high end prices coming off faster. I have also attached my graph which I did for the whole of Surrey showing houses for sales by price band versus the average annual volume of sales over the last 8 years. There is some possible criticism of my method, but I wasn't going to start looking at income distribution curves or even rebanding houses each year to make what are small statistical corrections.

Anyway, it the two are taken together, they are pretty good evidence that the top of the market was frothy and is coming off rather quickly.

Edited by mikelivingstone

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Out of interest how are you collecting data?

I'm looking at the south of Guildford in some detail & am seeing similar drops in the £750k - £1m price band

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Out of interest how are you collecting data?

I'm looking at the south of Guildford in some detail & am seeing similar drops in the £750k - £1m price band

For the advertised properties on findaproperty, I look at the price halfway through the data. It's quick to find by doing a search with the minimum amount slightly less than the anticipated median and adjusting from there. They do publish a mean average, but I don't trust anyone elses stats!

There are several websites that show house prices based on Land Registry data such as www.houseprices.co.uk. After some cut-n-pasting I analyzed the numbers in Excel.

I'll post some updates of the graphs, but there's nothing to report yet.

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HP, the new graph is really interesting. There does seem to be something here in terms of high end prices coming off faster. I have also attached my graph which I did for the whole of Surrey showing houses for sales by price band versus the average annual volume of sales over the last 8 years. There is some possible criticism of my method, but I wasn't going to start looking at income distribution curves or even rebanding houses each year to make what are small statistical corrections.

Anyway, it the two are taken together, they are pretty good evidence that the top of the market was frothy and is coming off rather quickly.

For my bar chart, I set price bands on rightmove and that returns the number for sale once clicking through to the last page giving the number for sale though this needs to be decreased to eliminate multi agency entries.

For the average volume in the last 8 years, I used www.houseprices.co.uk and sorted by price. This site puts a sequential index number by each entry, so moving between bands you just substract one index number from another. eg, if the first house at £500,000 was entry number 217 and the first at £600,000 317, then there are 100 houses between £500,000 and £599,999.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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