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ralphmalph

Median Us House Price Up 10% Since Feb

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I have just been watching CNBC and they were discussing the US housing report issued today and the median house price has gone up 10% since feb. California, Arizona, Florida, Michigan are still dropping. But it seems that nobody wants the foreclosure stuff, too much rubbish, but they are buying the decent housing stock. Please do not take this as gospel because it is from memory but I think the peak median price for a US house was 238K and they dropped to 196K in jan/feb this year. So that is a 17.6% drop before they started to rise again.

So if the UK market is going to do the same then the toxic btl rubbish will fall for a long time, maybe unsellable for the next 10 years as ftbs buy houses instead but the quality property stock may see falls of only 17%. Interesting as to whether any STR'er will take the plunge if they can get 20%-30% of the peak price of a property today.

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Interesting as to whether any STR'er will take the plunge if they can get 20%-30% of the peak price of a property today.

I would - it would have to be nearer to 30 than 20, but I'd be quite happy with that.

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I have just been watching CNBC and they were discussing the US housing report issued today and the median house price has gone up 10% since feb. California, Arizona, Florida, Michigan are still dropping. But it seems that nobody wants the foreclosure stuff, too much rubbish, but they are buying the decent housing stock. Please do not take this as gospel because it is from memory but I think the peak median price for a US house was 238K and they dropped to 196K in jan/feb this year. So that is a 17.6% drop before they started to rise again.

So if the UK market is going to do the same then the toxic btl rubbish will fall for a long time, maybe unsellable for the next 10 years as ftbs buy houses instead but the quality property stock may see falls of only 17%. Interesting as to whether any STR'er will take the plunge if they can get 20%-30% of the peak price of a property today.

House prices here are likely drop 30% nominal over the next 3-4 years, 2007 prices went insane with nobody knowing how high the market would go and EA were simply pricing in another 5% growth for the year.

This is why even though reports are filtering onto the site of 20% falls already being seen its more than likely just the froth at the top of the bubble, prices will probably fall 30% from 2006 prices which for many parts of the country will be the prices seen in 2002-03.

By 2012 you will be able to look back and see that prices are the same as they were 10 years earlier.

But I agree that certain properties will always be desirable and fall less than others and also recover far quicker, it will be interesting but I think that auctions are not a true reflection of market values, the stock is pretty poor imho, poor areas , lots of money needed to bring them to a standard, grossly overvalued at the start i.e 2 bed flat sold 2006 £380k, auction 2008 £285k

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I have just been watching CNBC and they were discussing the US housing report issued today and the median house price has gone up 10% since feb. California, Arizona, Florida, Michigan are still dropping. But it seems that nobody wants the foreclosure stuff, too much rubbish, but they are buying the decent housing stock. Please do not take this as gospel because it is from memory but I think the peak median price for a US house was 238K and they dropped to 196K in jan/feb this year. So that is a 17.6% drop before they started to rise again.

So if the UK market is going to do the same then the toxic btl rubbish will fall for a long time, maybe unsellable for the next 10 years as ftbs buy houses instead but the quality property stock may see falls of only 17%. Interesting as to whether any STR'er will take the plunge if they can get 20%-30% of the peak price of a property today.

"I have just been watching CNBC and they were discussing the US housing report issued today and the median house price has gone up 10% since feb."

Case Shiller says that all areas are dropping IIRC

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interesting thread, one way of mitigating the effect of falling house prices in the media would be to begin to rationalise the price drops by niche discussion; bbc news 24 Feb 2009, " whilst there's huge drops in city centre apartments these were aimed at the inner city 'urbanite' chasing a lifestyle and therefore over priced, considering the fact that so many have remained unsold then individuals were not hurt by the drops, it was mainly builders who have subsequently been supported by the government, however in semi detached acacia avenue land the drop, from peak to where we're at now, is only 15% and market commentators predict we may have reached the bottom...."

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interesting thread, one way of mitigating the effect of falling house prices in the media would be to begin to rationalise the price drops by niche discussion; bbc news 24 Feb 2009, " whilst there's huge drops in city centre apartments these were aimed at the inner city 'urbanite' chasing a lifestyle and therefore over priced, considering the fact that so many have remained unsold then individuals were not hurt by the drops, it was mainly builders who have subsequently been supported by the government, however in semi detached acacia avenue land the drop, from peak to where we're at now, is only 15% and market commentators predict we may have reached the bottom...."

:lol:

IIRC, that's what they did last time: Citing Scotland as the place to live while my flat dropped 45% (ish) in SE London.

Trouble is, this time with the widespread nature of it all will result in the above. <_<

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I have just been watching CNBC and they were discussing the US housing report issued today and the median house price has gone up 10% since feb. California, Arizona, Florida, Michigan are still dropping. But it seems that nobody wants the foreclosure stuff, too much rubbish, but they are buying the decent housing stock. Please do not take this as gospel because it is from memory but I think the peak median price for a US house was 238K and they dropped to 196K in jan/feb this year. So that is a 17.6% drop before they started to rise again.

So if the UK market is going to do the same then the toxic btl rubbish will fall for a long time, maybe unsellable for the next 10 years as ftbs buy houses instead but the quality property stock may see falls of only 17%. Interesting as to whether any STR'er will take the plunge if they can get 20%-30% of the peak price of a property today.

Read this siht fro barins. It's from Reuters. It's from Wednesday (Yesterday).

The financial crisis won't be over until U.S. house prices stop falling, which in short means it won't be over any time soon
.
Looking at housing in relation to income, they found that prices have moved closer to historic norms, but not as far as could be expected given the extent of the boom. If prices were to moderate back to where they were relative to income in the mid and late 1990s, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City index would have to decline 35.1 percent in total compared with its 17.5 percent fall thus far.

They haven't bottomed out in the States by a long way. They're about half way there. And they've been in crash mode for about a year already.

Keep up at the back!

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Redwing, thanks for the insult, it went right over my head, what ever became of reasoned debate and discussion without resorting to insults whensome one may not agree with someone elses view.

On another note where in your reuters report does it say that the median US house price has fallen since Feb.

It states they have fallen 17.5% since the peak, but no mention of the last Qtr. Also your link was written before the report issued today. Perhaps you can find todays report and analyse it and see if the reporting was false. That may be a better use of your time than chucking insults around.

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I have just been watching CNBC and they were discussing the US housing report issued today and the median house price has gone up 10% since feb. California, Arizona, Florida, Michigan are still dropping. But it seems that nobody wants the foreclosure stuff, too much rubbish, but they are buying the decent housing stock. Please do not take this as gospel because it is from memory but I think the peak median price for a US house was 238K and they dropped to 196K in jan/feb this year. So that is a 17.6% drop before they started to rise again.

So if the UK market is going to do the same then the toxic btl rubbish will fall for a long time, maybe unsellable for the next 10 years as ftbs buy houses instead but the quality property stock may see falls of only 17%. Interesting as to whether any STR'er will take the plunge if they can get 20%-30% of the peak price of a property today.

Yep, just read on Bloomberg that YOY median prices are down just 6% since June 2007. So they really have increased 10% since Feb whilst US disposable income continues to fall / unemployment rises and the FED lurches towards bankruptcy .... that is a miracle that Brown would be proud of.

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Yep, just read on Bloomberg that YOY median prices are down just 6% since June 2007. So they really have increased 10% since Feb whilst US disposable income continues to fall / unemployment rises and the FED lurches towards bankruptcy .... that is a miracle that Brown would be proud of.

Source please.

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Redwing, thanks for the insult, it went right over my head, what ever became of reasoned debate and discussion without resorting to insults whensome one may not agree with someone elses view.

On another note where in your reuters report does it say that the median US house price has fallen since Feb.

It states they have fallen 17.5% since the peak, but no mention of the last Qtr. Also your link was written before the report issued today. Perhaps you can find todays report and analyse it and see if the reporting was false. That may be a better use of your time than chucking insults around.

Source please.

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I put in a reply to this OP and provided a link to a source that contradicts the OP.

So did YellerKat.

Neither RalphMalph nor lufc can provide links to their assertions.

Come on, I want to read those pieces of news. From the original teller, not your regurgitation of them. How else am I going to believe you?

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I put in a reply to this OP and provided a link to a source that contradicts the OP.

So did YellerKat.

Neither RalphMalph nor lufc can provide links to their assertions.

Come on, I want to read those pieces of news. From the original teller, not your regurgitation of them. How else am I going to believe you?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

Resales dropped 2.6 percent to a lower-than-forecast 4.86 million annual rate from a 4.99 million pace the prior month, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median home price dropped 6.1 percent from June 2007.

:(:(

lthough I've no idea how reliable the nat ass of Realtor figures would be.

Edited by daiking

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http://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/5fb...457ac914141ef4b

Here it is the median value is on page two.

Thank you.

Interesting stats, but I think they are missing some caveats:

1. these are not inflation adjusted

2. they only give this year's figures, so it is impossible to see if there's a regular pattern, e.g. whether February prices tend to be lower than June prices.

3. in other words, there is no seasonal adjustment to smooth out seasonal factos.

4. this is existing homes only - which to give you credit, you pointed out in your OP.

5. it's interesting to see that 5,030,000 existing homes were sold in Feb 2008 against 4,860,000 in June 2008 which saw the lowest transaction volumes in the whole year.

6. so if there's a 'flight to quality' that's exactly what you'd expect. The median and mean aren't being set by rising prices, but by a shift in the volumes towards higher priced properties. No one can sell anything that's rubbish, so sales of rubbish aren't getting into the data set from which the mean and median are calculated.

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Source please.

Disposable income : last year but I don't think that things have improved much since then.

http://www.mnprivatecolleges.org/userFiles...ncome_66-06.pdf

Jobless Claims :

The Labor Department earlier today reported that first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest in almost four months, a sign the slowing economy is weakening the labor market. Applications increased by 34,000 to 406,000 in the week ended July 19.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

FED Bankruptcy : You can read as much as you like on t'internet about this subject but IMHO too many more bailouts and globally the $ shit will soon hit the fan.

By the way, I believe that median US house prices are up 10% since Feb as much as I believe that knife crime is down by a similiar figure in the UK .... It's all ********.

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Redwing, my points exactly and as I said in my OP if this is replicated here STRS are not looking to buy the trash but the quality stuff, so it is food for thought so to say for all us sell to renters.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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