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Pezerinno

1998 - 2005 45% Increase In Us Homes

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Hi,

I was reading The Revolution by Ron Paul last night and he stated US home had increased by 45% between 1998 and 2005 (didn't say if that was in real terms) but I had assumed it would have been far higher percentage than that? Were it just California and the like heavily affected and thus the overall average much lower than I expected? Hasn’t California decreased by something like 35%? How much did California increase?

Edited by NickP

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Guest Shedfish

as bubbles go, that's quite quaint. over here in the UK we have PROPER bubbles

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Theres no comparrisson between the US market and the UK I feel... different types of housing, building regs, amounts of vacant properties etc, cost, earnings, inflation.... I really don't feel theres any meaningful one can extrappolate the US experience into the Uk one other than of course noting that they have decreasing prices and so do we.... I'll bet if you dig deep in the US you might see that theres huge differences state to state, between different demographic groups etc etc... that for me would be about the only real similarity... people get overly hung up on national figures for the US in the same way as in the UK and in doing so risk misunderstanding whats driving falls, where falls are happening or indeed trying to unravel where they might end up.

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45% in 7 years?

In Northern Ireland we have had 142.4% in 4 years (2003-2007; data from the Financial Times)

Now THAT's a bubble.

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Theres no comparrisson between the US market and the UK I feel... different types of housing, building regs, amounts of vacant properties etc, cost, earnings, inflation.... I really don't feel theres any meaningful one can extrappolate the US experience into the Uk one other than of course noting that they have decreasing prices and so do we.... I'll bet if you dig deep in the US you might see that theres huge differences state to state, between different demographic groups etc etc... that for me would be about the only real similarity... people get overly hung up on national figures for the US in the same way as in the UK and in doing so risk misunderstanding whats driving falls, where falls are happening or indeed trying to unravel where they might end up.

That's a fair point. I think Cali anf Florida are badly hit, and the drop yoy just announced was only 6.1%.

In fact, is it probably similar to the UK in the 90s: Some regions affected at different times.

I keep banging on about this, but it is key that the collapse/crash/slump/"slowdown" is much more countrywide this time than the 90s, when London fell 32% according to NWide quarterly figures, and flats probably more so.

But last time London was the epicentre of the bubble, whereas some other regions didn't bubble at all (Scotland Nothern Ireland for instance). This time it is pretty much everywhere and the trigger is universal rather than local (apart from NI which is going to be a real spectacle).

So I think 32% is possible, nationally, by extrapolating London last time, but as you say some areas will be decimated and others less affected.

Sorry, rambling a bit.

The point I was coming to was that while the fall has been, if not uniform, certainly not as regionalised as last time, I think that the recovery when it does come will be local and regionalised and subject to the "normal" drivers of the market, such as jobs, massive City bonuses etc.

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45% in 7 years?

In Northern Ireland we have had 142.4% in 4 years (2003-2007; data from the Financial Times)

Now THAT's a bubble.

ha! in Moscow we have 500% in 5 years, yeah - that is a real bubble. and it is growing by 1% per week.

prices is in $ per square meter.

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ha! in Moscow we have 500% in 5 years, yeah - that is a real bubble. and it is growing by 1% per week.

prices is in $ per square meter.

Are wages keeping pace with that? Or is this data skewed that it's millionaires pushing up the average price?

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Are wages keeping pace with that? Or is this data skewed that it's millionaires pushing up the average price?

wages are far behind but of course rising. that graph shows an average price for economy class flats.

Edited by kalkal1

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as bubbles go, that's quite quaint. over here in the UK we have PROPER bubbles

Too right, our bubble has been much bigger than their poxy little colonial bubble. Their sub-prime was on tiny multiples, and their house prices much lower multiples.

Never forget the reason the White House is painted white! When our housing market crashes and burns the smoke will cast such a pall, that the whole world will need to get the white paint out...

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The US housing market is very different to ours. Where they have little liveable land with a nice climate i.e The Californian coast, florida, The Hamptons or space constraints Mahatten then they have had HPI just like ours. In places where there is loads of land i.e everywhere else, you buy a plot of land for peanuts and build a wooden house, in these regions the house owners do not expect any HPI, all they want to do is get there money back. Which when taken account of inflation there are losing. This is from personal experience as I thought about buying a house in Ohio when I lived there and this is what the Realtors told me during the boom years for US HPI.

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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