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Jon Hunt's Property Predictions

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http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/art...guru/article.do

What many would like to know is what Hunt thinks of the market now. He nods. "I've been through two major recessions, in 1972-74 and 1988-94. This will be the third. It will last from now until whenever. The problem is that 'whenever'. What would be nice is if a house drops by 25 per cent one week and comes back the next.

"But the property market isn't like that - it doesn't go off a cliff and climb back at the same rate. It goes down rapidly and comes back slowly. In 1988, prices started falling, they stayed down and it took until 1998 for them to get back to their 1988 level. That was slow - 10 years."

This time he doesn't know how long prices will remain on the valley floor, as he puts it or whether they are even at the bottom. His counsel is "to allow five years for recovery. The market drops 20-25 per cent. Each year it will come back a little bit". That shouldn't bother those people who are owner-occupiers, provided they keep their jobs. "They've got their cashflow, they should be okay."

BUT it's more desperate, he says, among those who use the market as a means of making money, usually through buy-to-lets. "What happens is that in the boom you get this euphoria and if it goes on too long everyone thinks it will go on for ever. Everyone forgets the risk. Every time you turned on the TV there was a programme about property and relocating and cashing-in. What do their presenters know? They've not spent 14 hours every day for years working in the market."

Prudence, he says, "went out of the window. It took me 20 years to open 20 offices. I'm very slow. I will sit outside a property for six hours just watching the traffic flow before I decide". He knows this sounds odd, coming from the creator of Foxtons. "I'm extremely cautious when it comes to making property decisions."

When will we know the fall is over? "When people cease talking about property prices at dinner parties, when they've become so boring a topic of discussion." That, he ventures, is the moment to strike, "when there's blood on the street but it's drying - it's stopped flowing". Nevertheless, his "absolute golden rule is sell before you start looking".

He has no doubt prices will recover. In central London, demand remains strong - for two- and three-bed flats and for the top-end houses. Rich foreigners want to come here and they will prop up prices.

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What happens is that in the boom you get this euphoria and if it goes on too long everyone thinks it will go on for ever. Everyone forgets the risk

Including my own ex-staff, and the thousands they managed to con into buying in the past 24 months.

Nice one mate.

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Very interesting. I quite like his approach of sitting outside a house for several hours to get a feel for the area and to see what the traffic is like.

Shouldn't try that in too many areas of London if you don't want a stabbin.

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>What happens is that in the boom you get this euphoria and if it goes on too long everyone thinks it will go on for ever. Everyone forgets the risk

Nice to see someone mention risk.

As house prices rose rapidly, bulls took this as confirmation of their views and numbed their sense of risk.

The bears took rapidly rising prices as a sign of increasing risk.

No need to guess which one evaluated risk more accurately.

VMR.

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My golden rule is if you get stabbed doing it - don't buy. :)

Chalk outlines and police cordon tape - denotes an up n coming area every time.

As for this talk of "prices not on the bottom yet" - EH? They've risen in North London - go see my thread about N12.

They're up 20% on last Summer !!!

I ain't kiddin' ya. The askings are up!

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Chalk outlines and police cordon tape - denotes an up n coming area every time.

As for this talk of "prices not on the bottom yet" - EH? They've risen in North London - go see my thread about N12.

They're up 20% on last Summer !!!

I ain't kiddin' ya. The askings are up!

They can ask all they like! :lol:

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Shouldn't try that in too many areas of London if you don't want a stabbin.

Daily Mail reader????

If you actually look at the figures you'd see year to July 07 there were 175 murders in the capital, next 12 months there were 154.

Provincials are so funny...

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
Very interesting. I quite like his approach of sitting outside a house for several hours to get a feel for the area and to see what the traffic is like.

How else would you determine the demography of an area and number of views your business is likely to get?

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Including my own ex-staff, and the thousands they managed to con into buying in the past 24 months.

Nice one mate.

You may not like Jon Hunt but he's the only person I know who correctly called this crash. I'd listen to him over FP every time.

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Daily Mail reader????

If you actually look at the figures you'd see year to July 07 there were 175 murders in the capital, next 12 months there were 154.

Provincials are so funny...

London is the most violent place in the UK.

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I suppose you're trying to annoy him.

Most people from London don't actually know what a 'Province' is when they refer to anywhere outside London in that disparaging manner and is if they themselves actually owned it.

Even so, I don't suppose Hackney (the stated location of the poster to whom you replied) was ever deemed a Province.

Read up about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Province

"The "Province of Northern Ireland" is the only British territory called "province" today. "

opps missed the Hackney bit....

By the way words do evolve and gain and change meanings...

DictionaryDotCom has this:

provincial

-Of or relating to a province.

-Of or characteristic of people from the provinces; not fashionable or sophisticated: "Well-educated professional women ... made me feel uncomfortably provincial" (J.R. Salamanca).

-Limited in perspective; narrow and self-centered

Edited by Neitherland

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How else would you determine the demography of an area and number of views your business is likely to get?

For free - Look at things like the ONS website for neighbourhood statistics. Take time to understand the site, the geographic units for which they present data, the definitions of the data and how to interpret the data. You might also look at the 'neighbourhood profiles' on UpMyStreet - again read the instructinos carefully or the odds are you'll grab the wrong end of the stick.

For a small fee - You might buy demographic analysis of any area in the UK from www.datadepot.co.uk You decide whether the location gets traffic from the local population or whether you also need to analyses travel to shop/work patterns in order to determine for what area you need demographics. THEN sit outside the site for six hours watching the passing traffic - but with a much better understanding of what to look out for.

If its really important to you - consult a demographer. ;)

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I suppose you're trying to annoy him.

Most people from London don't actually know what a 'Province' is when they refer to anywhere outside London in that disparaging manner and is if they themselves actually owned it.

:lol: There's one like that at my workplace in Brighton, she moved from London and was shocked when a colleague got burgled saying she thought that sort of thing 'didn't happen outside London' :blink: without a trace of irony, total fruitcake.

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Anyone reading this thread who really thinks Jon Hunt has special powers, or has a unique wisdom, is deluded. And the same delusion is applicable to most other notable market speculators who, just because they were fortunate enough to be around at the "right" time, have taken on a ludicrous mystique in the eyes of those who just can't fathom why they didn't achieve the same thing. The fact is they could have done, because in the main, successful speculative investment which does not actually produce anything except profit for the investor (unless you really think Foxtons was a "product") is almost always a function of greed, ambition and determination. Beyond that it is just an economically narcissistic activity which is of no use whatsoever to anyone other than the investor.

Most sensible and intelligent people are too utterly bored rigid by a life spent JUST making money, then more money, then more money still, to bother with it. Sensible, enlightened people do useful things and don't spend every hour of every day conjuring up more ways to get even richer. They improve their minds with further education, pursue a hobby, learn a language, or a musical instrument - things that contribute to a real quality of life. It is the empty, the vacuous, and the shallow who have the drive to produce wealth for entirely gratuitous reasons. And generally speaking, the more wealth that is acquired, the less satisfying it becomes, because its pursuit terminally cuts off an already singularly ambitious person from an enlighened perception of the world around.

If it wasn't for the ridiculous admiration of these kind of people, which conveniently feeds their relentless narcissism, and is exactly what they are hungry for, they would be consigned to where they belong, but in a similar manner to contemporary obsessions with the famous for fame's sake (whether or not they actually have any talent) contemporary society gets duped again and again by the notion that the wealthy are somehow uniquely gifted with a rare wisdom. It is simply not so.

VP

Edited by VacantPossession

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Most sensible and intelligent people are too utterly bored rigid by a life spent JUST making money, then more money, then more money still, to bother with it. Sensible, enlightened people do useful things and don't spend every hour of every day conjuring up more ways to get even richer. They improve their minds with further education, pursue a hobby, learn a language, or a musical instrument - things that contribute to a real quality of life. It is the empty, the vacuous, and the shallow who have the drive to produce wealth for entirely gratuitous reasons. And generally speaking, the more wealth that is acquired, the less satisfying it becomes, because its pursuit terminally cuts off an already singularly ambitious person from an enlighened perception of the world around.

If it wasn't for the ridiculous admiration of these kind of people, which conveniently feeds their relentless narcissism, and is exactly what they are hungry for, they would be consigned to where they belong, but in a similar manner to contemporary obsessions with the famous for fame's sake (whether or not they actually have any talent) contemporary society gets duped again and again by the notion that the wealthy are somehow uniquely gifted with a rare wisdom. It is simply not so.

VP

Nicely put. Very true, we all get swept away in the daily grind to survive and keep up with the Joneses and Jonesczkis (if Polish) rather than enjoy our world and enrich ourselves with non materialism.

Sadly, British Gas doesn't accept raw talent and artistic ability instead of hard cash, but I live in hope! :)

Edited by The Last Bear

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If it wasn't for the ridiculous admiration of these kind of people, which conveniently feeds their relentless narcissism, and is exactly what they are hungry for, they would be consigned to where they belong, but in a similar manner to contemporary obsessions with the famous for fame's sake (whether or not they actually have any talent) contemporary society gets duped again and again by the notion that the wealthy are somehow uniquely gifted with a rare wisdom. It is simply not so.

VP

Politics of envy!!!

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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