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Just Twigged What Has Changed At Hpc-

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Guest KingCharles1st

Up untill 2 months ago, the HPC was ours , if you like. We suspected it, dreamt it, willed it, toyed with it, and its implications.. nobody would listen, nobody cared.

And now, well- we all know what is happening. The Meeja, Gov.uk.twatt and even pub-bloke know all about it and are "welcoming" it with open arms.

Liken it to a new business idea. You identify a need, design it, make prototypes, redesign it, get a little interest, keep plugging away, no-one is interested, until one day, you meet someone else who thinks the same as you , you no longer feel alone, you get commercial interest, they like it- eventually they invest..... and TAKE CONTROL!

This is what I fear has happened, pure and simple. I suppose the best we can do now is keep the bastards on their toes because they all read this place every day- don't you Krusty and Declan.and all the other spinners.

Mind you- if it hurries it along, then ;)

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I agree, the most interesting time for me was about 18 months ago with all the "uncovering" of the whole mortgage securitisation, CDOs etc innovations. Real mental floss that was.

I would like to see this site dedicated to setting up an institution that acts as a counterweight to the financial vested interests.

An institution that will ensure that houses can never again be exploited, speculated on, invested in, ramped, dumped etc etc.

Any ideas for a name for this august body ?

Homes for Living In

HomesUK

People Against the Banks

err ...

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The rushing through of the US housing bill appears to prove that the Governments of the world still dont get it though.

Ie, we will rescue you with your own money, and everybody elses, Mr homeownerinborrowingdoodoo.

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I think what you're feeling is the move along this curve:

The Diffusion of Innovation

This is marketing's appropriation of the theory. Rogers wasn't particularly interested in sales. He was more into the diffusion of ideas and other innovations.

innovators.gif

This extension of the product life cycle was developed by Everett M. Rogers in 1962 and simply looks who adopts products at the different stages of the life cycle.

Rogers identified five types of purchasers as the product moves through its life cycle stage. He suggested:

1. Innovator who make up 2.5% of all purchases of the product, purchase the product at the beginning of the life cycle. They are not afraid of trying new products that suit their lifestyle and will also pay a premium for that benefit.

2. Early Adopters make up 13.5% of purchases, they are usually opinion leaders and naturally adopt products after the innovators. This group of purchasers are crucial because adoption by them means the product becomes acceptable, spurring on later purchasers.

3. Early Majority make up 34% of purchases and have been spurred on by the early adopters. They wait to see if the product will be adopted by society and will purchase only when this has happened. They early majority usually have some status in society.

4. Late Majority make up another 34% of sales and usually purchase the product at the late stages of majority within the life cycle.

5. Laggards make up 16% of total sales and usually purchase the product near the end of its life. They are the ‘wait and see’ group. They wait to see if the product will get cheaper. Usually when they purchase the product a new version is already on the market. Some may call Laggards, bargain hunters!

I'd like to have a go at placing HPCers on the map.

If you were here before the first murmurings of sub-prime problems in the US, i.e. before 2007 then you're an Innovator.

If you came here in 2007, perhaps during the August credit crunch news and Northern Rock, then you're an early adopter.

If you arrived in 2008 then, I'd say you're Early Majority.

The Late Majority are only just starting to get it. And still believe that their home's value won't fall as much as other peoples.

The Laggards won't accept the HPC until it's over. They'll be saying buying property is a mug's game in about 2015.

post-3671-1216887242_thumb.png

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I think what you're feeling is the move along this curve:

The Diffusion of Innovation

This is marketing's appropriation of the theory. Rogers wasn't particularly interested in sales. He was more into the diffusion of ideas and other innovations.

innovators.gif

This extension of the product life cycle was developed by Everett M. Rogers in 1962 and simply looks who adopts products at the different stages of the life cycle.

Rogers identified five types of purchasers as the product moves through its life cycle stage. He suggested:

1. Innovator who make up 2.5% of all purchases of the product, purchase the product at the beginning of the life cycle. They are not afraid of trying new products that suit their lifestyle and will also pay a premium for that benefit.

2. Early Adopters make up 13.5% of purchases, they are usually opinion leaders and naturally adopt products after the innovators. This group of purchasers are crucial because adoption by them means the product becomes acceptable, spurring on later purchasers.

3. Early Majority make up 34% of purchases and have been spurred on by the early adopters. They wait to see if the product will be adopted by society and will purchase only when this has happened. They early majority usually have some status in society.

4. Late Majority make up another 34% of sales and usually purchase the product at the late stages of majority within the life cycle.

5. Laggards make up 16% of total sales and usually purchase the product near the end of its life. They are the ‘wait and see’ group. They wait to see if the product will get cheaper. Usually when they purchase the product a new version is already on the market. Some may call Laggards, bargain hunters!

I'd like to have a go at placing HPCers on the map.

If you were here before the first murmurings of sub-prime problems in the US, i.e. before 2007 then you're an Innovator.

If you came here in 2007, perhaps during the August credit crunch news and Northern Rock, then you're an early adopter.

If you arrived in 2008 then, I'd say you're Early Majority.

The Late Majority are only just starting to get it. And still believe that their home's value won't fall as much as other peoples.

The Laggards won't accept the HPC until it's over. They'll be saying buying property is a mug's game in about 2015.

Nah, the innovators were the pre summer 2005 HPCers. The dip in the market and the famous .25% rates cut of August 05 ahould have been the correction that those who had studied the area knew was due since 2001-ish. That dip was the flashing light double bold font warning to get out of property investment.

The purpose now of HPC.co.uk is to provide a lead on how to prevent this idiocy ever happening again. And I am convinced that is about land value taxation up, other taxes down.

EP

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Agree on the taxation issue. Tax is the main tool by which residential property will be prevented from being an investment class in future.

But financial regulation is the other issue that needs reform, to stop reckless lending through "innovation" in future.

Our US friends are already on the case, see

http://www.fedupusa.org/

We need an alternative, people versus financial VIs pressure group.... this site has all the makings of becoming it.

But we need a more formal approach. An office, a representative (already have JD), and some more lobbyists into govt.

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Nah, the innovators were the pre summer 2005 HPCers. The dip in the market and the famous .25% rates cut of August 05 ahould have been the correction that those who had studied the area knew was due since 2001-ish. That dip was the flashing light double bold font warning to get out of property investment.

The purpose now of HPC.co.uk is to provide a lead on how to prevent this idiocy ever happening again. And I am convinced that is about land value taxation up, other taxes down.

EP

People who hold signs go on, to hold bigger signs!

c Flight of the Concordes

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Up untill 2 months ago, the HPC was ours , if you like. We suspected it, dreamt it, willed it, toyed with it, and its implications.. nobody would listen, nobody cared.

And now, well- we all know what is happening. The Meeja, Gov.uk.twatt and even pub-bloke know all about it and are "welcoming" it with open arms.

Liken it to a new business idea. You identify a need, design it, make prototypes, redesign it, get a little interest, keep plugging away, no-one is interested, until one day, you meet someone else who thinks the same as you , you no longer feel alone, you get commercial interest, they like it- eventually they invest..... and TAKE CONTROL!

This is what I fear has happened, pure and simple. I suppose the best we can do now is keep the bastards on their toes because they all read this place every day- don't you Krusty and Declan.and all the other spinners.

Mind you- if it hurries it along, then ;)

I have been surprised at the opinions of the sheeple post crash:

For the people I know (all were saying no crash) and knew of my 'nutty crash views' pre August 2007, including some home owners, accept that I was right all along without resentfulness, even deference

For the people I know and didn't know of my 'nutty crash views' pre August 2007, are not suprised that there is a crash now and sort of knew it would happen all along*

*Apologies, reads like a Donald Rumsfeld speech.

Edited by Oxfordite

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I think what you're feeling is the move along this curve:

The Diffusion of Innovation

This is marketing's appropriation of the theory. Rogers wasn't particularly interested in sales. He was more into the diffusion of ideas and other innovations.

innovators.gif

SNIP

Where are the Moore's Chasms?

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Where are the Moore's Chasms?

iirc the Moore's Chasm referred to products that never got from innovators and early adopters into the mainstream.

Although we all consider ourselves to be the avant garde, there's no way this HPC isn't going to cross the Chasm. I think we're already over it, with the majority of the UK public now believing we're heading for recession.

The self-fulfilling prophecy is already out of the starting gates

[apologies for all those mixed metaphors]

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I think what you're feeling is the move along this curve:

The Diffusion of Innovation

This is marketing's appropriation of the theory. Rogers wasn't particularly interested in sales. He was more into the diffusion of ideas and other innovations.

innovators.gif

This extension of the product life cycle was developed by Everett M. Rogers in 1962 and simply looks who adopts products at the different stages of the life cycle.

Rogers identified five types of purchasers as the product moves through its life cycle stage. He suggested:

1. Innovator who make up 2.5% of all purchases of the product, purchase the product at the beginning of the life cycle. They are not afraid of trying new products that suit their lifestyle and will also pay a premium for that benefit.

2. Early Adopters make up 13.5% of purchases, they are usually opinion leaders and naturally adopt products after the innovators. This group of purchasers are crucial because adoption by them means the product becomes acceptable, spurring on later purchasers.

3. Early Majority make up 34% of purchases and have been spurred on by the early adopters. They wait to see if the product will be adopted by society and will purchase only when this has happened. They early majority usually have some status in society.

4. Late Majority make up another 34% of sales and usually purchase the product at the late stages of majority within the life cycle.

5. Laggards make up 16% of total sales and usually purchase the product near the end of its life. They are the ‘wait and see’ group. They wait to see if the product will get cheaper. Usually when they purchase the product a new version is already on the market. Some may call Laggards, bargain hunters!

I'd like to have a go at placing HPCers on the map.

If you were here before the first murmurings of sub-prime problems in the US, i.e. before 2007 then you're an Innovator.

If you came here in 2007, perhaps during the August credit crunch news and Northern Rock, then you're an early adopter.

If you arrived in 2008 then, I'd say you're Early Majority.

The Late Majority are only just starting to get it. And still believe that their home's value won't fall as much as other peoples.

The Laggards won't accept the HPC until it's over. They'll be saying buying property is a mug's game in about 2015.

Don't want to get into a scrap with you oldies, as I'd lose and presumably get banned (or shunned) but the 'product life-cycle' and 'bandwagon' ideas are distinct slurs on us newbies and should be distinguished and justified. First, I remember watching the first episode of This Life way back, and was hooked. I tried for ages to pass on the 'good word'. Sure enough it went mainstream and then everyone was into it, finished with that crap christmas special, and I remember feeling cheated as it was ''mine'. Quite normal response. Note, though, that because your date of joining here is on your avatar, the forum already builds in respect to the oldies, and especially original members, whose posts and threads are treated with more respect. I know this is my approach, but there is a nagging doubt in my mind that ultimately in an open forum it's the intellectual quality of one's post and arguments that should really be given the greatest weight. Second, the life-cycle model - while very interesting: it's obviously insightful for HiFi and other consumer electronics - is not easily applied to social/intellectual networking, especially when focused on a single issue (or set of issues) like HPC. Some people were too young to be motivated, or caught up in, the housing market in 2004 -surely they do not count as Early Majority (aka sheep) because of their age or stage in the life-cycle. Big difference between Phil Spencer, who seems to have converted earlier this week, and some guy aged 25 and who was at Uni when the site started. Also, there a lot of older types who have been consistent bears or depressed FTBs who only stumbled on the site in the past 12 months (or who lurked for some time). They might be inherent 'innovators' but in a different environment. Who knows....

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An institution that will ensure that houses can never again be exploited, speculated on, invested in, ramped, dumped etc etc.

Any ideas for a name for this august body ?

Homes for Living In

HomesUK

People Against the Banks

err ...

The problem is that half the people on here only want a HPC so they can buy cheap BTL's again, and start the whole sorry process again.

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...fear has happened...

What are you on about - this is a good thing! Finally the country is waking up to the reality of the situation.

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Don't want to get into a scrap with you oldies, as I'd lose and presumably get banned (or shunned) but the 'product life-cycle' and 'bandwagon' ideas are distinct slurs on us newbies and should be distinguished and justified. First, I remember watching the first episode of This Life way back, and was hooked. I tried for ages to pass on the 'good word'. Sure enough it went mainstream and then everyone was into it, finished with that crap christmas special, and I remember feeling cheated as it was ''mine'. Quite normal response. Note, though, that because your date of joining here is on your avatar, the forum already builds in respect to the oldies, and especially original members, whose posts and threads are treated with more respect. I know this is my approach, but there is a nagging doubt in my mind that ultimately in an open forum it's the intellectual quality of one's post and arguments that should really be given the greatest weight. Second, the life-cycle model - while very interesting: it's obviously insightful for HiFi and other consumer electronics - is not easily applied to social/intellectual networking, especially when focused on a single issue (or set of issues) like HPC. Some people were too young to be motivated, or caught up in, the housing market in 2004 -surely they do not count as Early Majority (aka sheep) because of their age or stage in the life-cycle. Big difference between Phil Spencer, who seems to have converted earlier this week, and some guy aged 25 and who was at Uni when the site started. Also, there a lot of older types who have been consistent bears or depressed FTBs who only stumbled on the site in the past 12 months (or who lurked for some time). They might be inherent 'innovators' but in a different environment. Who knows....

I can't fault a word of this with respect to posters on this site. We're just a tiny sample of what's going on.

However, I think that Rogers' original work was designed around the adoption of social innovations. It then got stolen by the marketing brigade because it looked like it was a good explanation for the product life cycle (another dubious concept btw).

I don't know if there's any empirical evidence that these models represent reality, but they make interesting debating points.

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. First, I remember watching the first episode of This Life way back, and was hooked. I tried for ages to pass on the 'good word'. Sure enough it went mainstream and then everyone was into it, finished with that crap christmas special, and I remember feeling cheated as it was ''mine'.

If it's the tv series you refer to, the creator Amy Jenkins said some years back that her generation were the first generation who would have a lower living standard than their parents. Prescient stuff. Mind you, I think she has a fairly well-padded backgound.

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And now, well- we all know what is happening. The Meeja, Gov.uk.twatt and even pub-bloke know all about it and are "welcoming" it with open arms.

Yep had that moment about a week or two a go, was at my mums and she mentioned house prices going down in relation to something else, I gave my usual flippant "No really, who would have thought that" to which she replied "Well they were always bound to go down at some point".

Hmm funny that because for the last 4 years I have been saying that and she never agreed before. However it depends on what sort of person you are, if you need somebody else's opinion to validate yours then thats your look out. For me I knew years ago how this would pan out (all be it later and therefore more disastrous than needed).

I do agree that it's quality of posts thats more important than how long you have been around, however that surely must go on a sliding scale.

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I would fall under early adopter. That however is a misanomer (sic) as I had the deposit and earning ability to buy a home since 2003. I didn't as I believed that house prices were unsustainable at 6 times salary.

On the other matter I thin a suitable name would be : Free Public Financial Investigation Group.

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they all read this place every day- don't you Krusty and Declan.and all the other spinners.

Lurk here by all means rampers, but if you try to 'cash in' on the HPC by pitching for TV roles offering advice in a falling market, or something similar, you will need to ask for danger money.

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I agree, the most interesting time for me was about 18 months ago with all the "uncovering" of the whole mortgage securitisation, CDOs etc innovations. Real mental floss that was.

I would like to see this site dedicated to setting up an institution that acts as a counterweight to the financial vested interests.

An institution that will ensure that houses can never again be exploited, speculated on, invested in, ramped, dumped etc etc.

Any ideas for a name for this august body ?

Homes for Living In

HomesUK

People Against the Banks

err ...

I agree that it would be good if some kind of entity were to emerge from this whole mess that fought the good fight for affordable, non-exploitative housing for all and to avoid anything like this happening again.

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I think what you're feeling is the move along this curve:

The Diffusion of Innovation

This is marketing's appropriation of the theory. Rogers wasn't particularly interested in sales. He was more into the diffusion of ideas and other innovations. ....snip

Please, do let's keep HPC a marketing-speak corpo-babble free zone. ;)

VP

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I agree that it would be good if some kind of entity were to emerge from this whole mess that fought the good fight for affordable, non-exploitative housing for all and to avoid anything like this happening again.

Here's a stab at The Charter:

This purpose of this body is to prevent average UK property prices from overshooting or undershooting wage levels by any significant margin.

It aims to promote a fair property market where speculators (either way, BTLers or S2Rers) will not profit over and above owner occupiers.

It will aim to optimise the property market for the benefit of those who purchase one property and live in it.

It will act as a lobbyist to the UK legislative process, and a first port of call for govt advice about property related governance.

It will probably be run by lay persons (either owner occupiers or would be owner occupiers). I imagine a similar structure to that of large pension funds who have trustees who are actually contributors.

There will also be a place for certain academics.

Any more comments anyone ?

If we can get a charter down, i.e. what we are wanting to fight for. Then we can look around and see if some organisation already exists that fits the bill, or failing that, form a little side working group of HPCers and see what we can come up with over the next few months ....

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...was at my mums and she mentioned house prices going down in relation to something else, I gave my usual flippant "No really, who would have thought that" to which she replied "Well they were always bound to go down at some point".

Hmm funny that because for the last 4 years I have been saying that and she never agreed before.

Hasn't happened to me as the first rule about HPC with me is you never talk about HPC. Reason being it is so often a no-win situation.

Can't help feeling perplexed at so many people both in media and real life that are now saying well, it was obvious wasn't it they were bound to fall some time, they couldn't go on rising forever, unsustainable, blah, blah, and as for those doom-mongers on internet blogs - even a stopped clock is right once a day.

In my memory, up until recently, the same peeps have been contemplating 100 year mortgages, folks not on " the ladder " being priced out forever, and the marvelous ATM that was BTL. No mention of the clock stopping, nor even needing winding - being driven as it was by the SEIKO Kinetic perpetual motion of limited supply and pent-up demand - on our tiny island.

Reminds me of wearing an Unknown Pleasures t-shirt with hardly anybody knowing it was Joy Division, as it had no name just the graphic of the album sleeve, thinking they were a cool band. Next thing you know Ian Curtis hangs himself and everybody is dancing to New Order Blue Monday at the rugby club, with A Flock Of Seagulls one side and Birdie Song by The Tweets on the other. :blink:

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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