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VedantaTrader

I Recommend Listening To This..very Insightful

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I have closely followed Marc Fabers work for a while now. I think there is no one better today at reading the world economy. His knowledge is second to none...he has a long history of getting it right, right back to the time when he told investors to sell a week before the 1987 crash, he bought gold in 1999, and has been bullish on commodities and China, and Asia in general in the same time...

For anyone who is interested in gold, and commodities and the inflationary/deflationary debate these vdos are mandatory listening...

The first vdo is a link to an interview today on Bloomberg, on their vdo link part...

Marc Faber on Bloomberg

The second is a one on one with Mike Maloney from goldsilver.com...Talks alot about gold and inflation in this and general world, geo-political outlook.

Faber Maloney interview on goldsilver.com

It doesnt link directly to the Maloney interview, it is the third one down on the left side. Maloney is the guy with red hair.

Krassimir Petrov says of Faber

"When it comes to the analysis of the world economy, whether in particular China, Argentina, Brazil, Russia, or Germany, today Marc Faber is in a league of his own. His phenomenal background in world history, in economic history, and in classical Austrian economics allows him to see the world as one integrated organism, and to identify economic and geopolitical trends well ahead of his peers. I highly recommend his book “Tomorrow’s Gold”, which in my opinion is the best investment book published in the last five years. Dr. Faber’s insightful analysis is archived on his web site www.gloomboomdoom.com, a highly recommended reading for the intelligent investor. Everyone is urged to listen to his five interviews with Jim Puplava (two of them jointly with Jim Rogers) and watch his two appearances on the “Riverside Conversations” (again with Jim Rogers). He is the only analyst who has reconciled meaningfully the still-raging inflation-deflation debate, and he elaborates it in his first interview with Jim Puplava and in his book."

Hope you find something useful in this!!!!

Edited by VedantaTrader

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That Marc Faber Interview was excellent, some very interesting info. I especially liked the comparisons between Americas old infrastructure Vs Chinas new infrastructure and the wealth destruction of the middle class in America, will we see the same in the UK? I personally think so.

Marc Faber Interview

26 min - Jan 29, 2008 - http://video.google.co.uk/videosearch?q=ma...loney&hl=en

The best advice Marc Faber seems to give is at the end of the video, getting in at the begining of a cycle. With that in mind I'm not sure if gold is such a great idea considering it's been rising for a few years now, although I suppose where gold goes in price depends on what happens in America and Marc Faber seems very very bearish on their future.

I'm non the wiser on hyperinflation or deflation, I've read good arguments for both.

Either way imo the end result will be a depression, am I being too pesimistic with this outlook? The more I read about this mess the worse it seems to look.

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VT I couldn't find the Marc Faber interview for today on Bloomberg from your link

I found a link on YouTube - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tciedtgvAgo

That's very interesting (please correct me if I'm wrong) but it sounds to me like he is saying that the FEDs low interest policy has helped keep the stock market higher than it should be and now with Equities in a bear market the money is going to flow a lot more into commodities.

Is he hinting at a stock market crash?

Edited by YoungFTB

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That's very interesting (please correct me if I'm wrong) but it sounds to me like he is saying that the FEDs low interest policy has helped keep the stock market higher than it should be and now with Equities in a bear market the money is going to flow a lot more into commodities.

Is he hinting at a stock market crash?

Yes,that is correct as flooding the markets with money is supporting stocks. A good way of looking at is to look at Zimbabwe's stock market performance this year. It is up 700% or something this year and 12,000% over the last 18 months. A steller performance by any means. However, its come at the price of the hyperinflation of the Zimbab Dollar and complete collapse of purchasing power. The reason this can happen is that when money is created, the usual way it filters into the economy is via the banking system. The banks therefor are the first point of contact for this new money. Banks then put it into stocks, and this lifts the stock market. the first people who come into contact with the new money reap the benefits of it,ie, the rich. Inflation always favours the rich, and not the poor. and this is why I think the FEdf are taking this route also...as the FED is essentially owned by the banks...back to the point however, that by the time this new money reaches the man on the street its purchasing power has been diluted and it is nof no use to the lower income people.

So what Marc Faber is saying is that of stocks and real estate are to be supported, it will come at the expense of the USD. This has already been the case. The bull run in stocks over the last few years is up in USD terms, but the S+P and the DOW measured in all other assets, including gold, wheat, euros is down by more than 50%. The FED is essentially doing what Mugabe is doing, although not on that scale. The FED pumps the markets with excess liquidity and the banks are the first point of contact, they then put the money into assets such as stocks and we have these rallies, and the money goes into hard assets. The rich benefit from this inflationary practise. It filters its way down the economy and into consumer prices makiing everyday life more difficult for middle and lower income groups. The money finds its way into stocks and there is this illusion of wealth created. Inflation always lags. However, this good feeling is short lived as the next stage is higher consumer prices as the money becomes more diluted...it is also politcially expedient to go down the inflation route. The initial effects of inflation appear to be positive, and the pain comes after. Accepting deflation means the pain is instant, but in the medium and longrun it is good. Deflation does noit favour the rich, as assets lose their value, and middle income families find their purchasing power increases. AS with most things in society things are not done for the good of thr lower income groups...Another reason, I think we are going down the inflation path.

What Faber also means is that the DOW could go to 30,000 in an inflation, but gold would also go to 30,000. And in a deflation gold could go to 2000 USD and the DOW to 2000-3000. Gold is still very cheap. In the last bullmarket gold went up by a multiple of 25 times. From 35 USD to 850 USD. Gold started this bullmarket circa 250 and is now 920 USD...a mutiple of 3.5 I personally think gold will go to between 5000-10,000 USD. Support becomes resistance in a bear market and resistance becomes support in a bull market. Gold is in a bull a market... 850 USD is the support for gold, and today we are at 920 USD. This is very early in the the bullmarket. If this bullmarket doesn't last a minimum of another 7 years,ie, 2015, and possibly until 2020-25 then it will defy 200 years of capitalism. There are some very large long term forces at work here, structural forces that cannot be changed by Ben Bernanke...infact he will assure it will last all the longer.

Edited by VedantaTrader

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Yes,that is correct as flooding the markets with money is supporting stocks. A good way of looking at is to look at Zimbabwe's stock market performance this year. It is up 700% or something this year and 12,000% over the last 18 months. A steller performance by any means. However, its come at the price of the hyperinflation of the Zimbab Dollar and complete collapse of purchasing power. The reason this can happen is that when money is created, the usual way it filters into the economy is via the banking system. The banks therefor are the first point of contact for this new money. Banks then put it into stocks, and this lifts the stock market. the first people who come into contact with the new money reap the benefits of it,ie, the rich. Inflation always favours the rich, and not the poor. and this is why I think the FEdf are taking this route also...as the FED is essentially owned by the banks...back to the point however, that by the time this new money reaches the man on the street its purchasing power has been diluted and it is nof no use to the lower income people.

So what Marc Faber is saying is that of stocks and real estate are to be supported, it will come at the expense of the USD. This has already been the case. The bull run in stocks over the last few years is up in USD terms, but the S+P and the DOW measured in all other assets, including gold, wheat, euros is down by more than 50%. The FED is essentially doing what Mugabe is doing, although not on that scale. The FED pumps the markets with excess liquidity and the banks are the first point of contact, they then put the money into assets such as stocks and we have these rallies, and the money goes into hard assets. The rich benefit from this inflationary practise. It filters its way down the economy and into consumer prices makiing everyday life more difficult for middle and lower income groups. The money finds its way into stocks and there is this illusion of wealth created. Inflation always lags. However, this good feeling is short lived as the next stage is higher consumer prices as the money becomes more diluted...it is also politcially expedient to go down the inflation route. The initial effects of inflation appear to be positive, and the pain comes after. Accepting deflation means the pain is instant, but in the medium and longrun it is good. Deflation does noit favour the rich, as assets lose their value, and middle income families find their purchasing power increases. AS with most things in society things are not done for the good of thr lower income groups...Another reason, I think we are going down the inflation path.

What Faber also means is that the DOW could go to 30,000 in an inflation, but gold would also go to 30,000. And in a deflation gold could go to 2000 USD and the DOW to 2000-3000. Gold is still very cheap. In the last bullmarket gold went up by a multiple of 25 times. From 35 USD to 850 USD. Gold started this bullmarket circa 250 and is now 920 USD...a mutiple of 3.5 I personally think gold will go to between 5000-10,000 USD. Support becomes resistance in a bear market and resistance becomes support in a bull market. Gold is in a bull a market... 850 USD is the support for gold, and today we are at 920 USD. This is very early in the the bullmarket. If this bullmarket doesn't last a minimum of another 7 years,ie, 2015, and possibly until 2020-25 then it will defy 200 years of capitalism. There are some very large long term forces at work here, structural forces that cannot be changed by Ben Bernanke...infact he will assure it will last all the longer.

Thanks for the explanation, this is all starting to make a lot of sense.

If I wanted to invest some money in gold, what percentage do you think would be a good amount to hold physically?

I've read debates on this one, I'm thinking 20 - 30% physical and the rest in an account with GoldMoney, then if the situation gets worse then add more to the physical amount.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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