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Three Way Split On Rate Decision

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

Can't we just replace Blanchflower with a tape recording saying 'cut'?

In fact, can't we just replace most Americans with a moronic algorithm?

It's not as if they really make a convincing effort of posing as humans.

Edited by DissipatedYouthIsValuable

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Can't we just replace Blanchflower with a tape recording saying 'cut'?

In fact, can't we just replace most Americans with a moronic algorithm?

It's not as if they really make a convincing effort of posing as humans.

Get on your horse (or donkey) and drink your milk.

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Isn't Besley voting for a hike big news? Ok, availability of mortgages and tightening of criteria is what is really going to bring on the crash, but it's nice to know that some on the MPC still believing in targeting inflation.

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Can't we just replace Blanchflower with a tape recording saying 'cut'?

In fact, can't we just replace most Americans with a moronic algorithm?

It's not as if they really make a convincing effort of posing as humans.

Born and brought up here in Brighton, I'm afraid.

Interesting divorce snippets. Made legal history!

Musings on the origin of the name: "The name probably originated as a nickname, or was used pejoratively to refer to a male with female characteristics."

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
Born and brought up here in Brighton, I'm afraid.

Interesting divorce snippets. Made legal history!

Musings on the origin of the name: "The name probably originated as a nickname, or was used pejoratively to refer to a male with female characteristics."

Christ. After that divorce history you'd expect the man not to talk loudly about having anything cut.

*Wiggles little finger*

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Isn't Besley voting for a hike big news? Ok, availability of mortgages and tightening of criteria is what is really going to bring on the crash, but it's nice to know that some on the MPC still believing in targeting inflation.

It is huge news because it was thought if anything all dissent would have come the other way with possibly 2 members voting for a cut. It must be said however that it is not very encouraging as the Bank of England's hawkish stance is merely reactionary and they offer very little insight into how the economy may be dug out of the present hole. This MPC has always been biased to the hawkish side and it really is not a huge surprise that they should dither in the way they have. Headline inflation in the UK is imported and there is little the BoE can do about it, so threatening to raise rates to combat something they cannot confront displays a real lack of creativity, in my view. The UK economy is in a far worse state than the Bank of England seem to believe and their redundant stance makes it look like 1) they hope inflation will just disappear or 2) they are praying for some upside surprises in economic activity over the next month which might help justify an unwarranted rate hike in August.

I have said it before about Governor King - he is the Central Bank Head of least influence over his Monetary Policy Committee. He lacks the decisive touch. Trichet and Bernanke maybe on opposite roads to Damascus, but at least each has a sense of conviction about what they are doing. King appears to be in limbo and is inclined to sway in the direction of the wind.

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Timothy Besley - give that man a medal. He has balls. Shows all the others up.

Are we sure Blonchflower has a pulse still? Or is it a corpse with response of a twitch everytime someone says "shall we have a rate cut"

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It is huge news because it was thought if anything all dissent would have come the other way with possibly 2 members voting for a cut. It must be said however that it is not very encouraging as the Bank of England's hawkish stance is merely reactionary and they offer very little insight into how the economy may be dug out of the present hole. This MPC has always been biased to the hawkish side and it really is not a huge surprise that they should dither in the way they have. Headline inflation in the UK is imported and there is little the BoE can do about it, so threatening to raise rates to combat something they cannot confront displays a real lack of creativity, in my view. The UK economy is in a far worse state than the Bank of England seem to believe and their redundant stance makes it look like 1) they hope inflation will just disappear or 2) they are praying for some upside surprises in economic activity over the next month which might help justify an unwarranted rate hike in August.

I have said it before about Governor King - he is the Central Bank Head of least influence over his Monetary Policy Committee. He lacks the decisive touch. Trichet and Bernanke maybe on opposite roads to Damascus, but at least each has a sense of conviction about what they are doing. King appears to be in limbo and is inclined to sway in the direction of the wind.

Have to disagree the BOE can affect imported inflation by stopping printing money and devaluing sterling even further. We

are in the same situation with money as Zimbabwe just by a much lower multiple, the costs of their imports are going up by a

huge amount of inflation but that isn't the fault of the suppliers of those goods its due to their monetary policy.

Banks that have lent unwisely should be left to their fate, when they are made to feel the pain then maybe they will learn.

The base rate at this time is irrelevant for lending as lending rates have disconnected, the base rate is only hurting savers.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
It is huge news because it was thought if anything all dissent would have come the other way with possibly 2 members voting for a cut. It must be said however that it is not very encouraging as the Bank of England's hawkish stance is merely reactionary and they offer very little insight into how the economy may be dug out of the present hole. This MPC has always been biased to the hawkish side and it really is not a huge surprise that they should dither in the way they have. Headline inflation in the UK is imported and there is little the BoE can do about it, so threatening to raise rates to combat something they cannot confront displays a real lack of creativity, in my view. The UK economy is in a far worse state than the Bank of England seem to believe and their redundant stance makes it look like 1) they hope inflation will just disappear or 2) they are praying for some upside surprises in economic activity over the next month which might help justify an unwarranted rate hike in August.

I have said it before about Governor King - he is the Central Bank Head of least influence over his Monetary Policy Committee. He lacks the decisive touch. Trichet and Bernanke maybe on opposite roads to Damascus, but at least each has a sense of conviction about what they are doing. King appears to be in limbo and is inclined to sway in the direction of the wind.

Quite an interesting sociological experiment - USA, down. UK, stick. EU, up.

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Have to disagree the BOE can affect imported inflation by stopping printing money and devaluing sterling even further. We

are in the same situation with money as Zimbabwe just by a much lower multiple, the costs of their imports are going up by a

huge amount of inflation but that isn't the fault of the suppliers of those goods its due to their monetary policy.

Banks that have lent unwisely should be left to their fate, when they are made to feel the pain then maybe they will learn.

The base rate at this time is irrelevant for lending as lending rates have disconnected, the base rate is only hurting savers.

Money supply to the private sector has been slowing significantly in recent months, even with lower interest rates. It is public borrowing by the Government that made the numbers shoot up in June. As the Govt owns the Bank of England and essentially it prints its own money, it won't be persuaded by borrowing rates.

Raising rates in a falling economy will only devalue sterling in the long run. While initially sterling may get a jolt from market speculators, if the Bank of England raise rates when the economy is slowing sharply, sterling is going to fall big time. The currency rose massively today, probably by the greatest amount this year, but those who have rolled into sterling for this short sprint won't actually last the distance.

A base rate of 5% is significantly more than that on offer in most other major economies (4.25% in euro and 2% in US) and UK inflation at 3.8% happens to be lower than that in the euro area (4.0%) and in the US (5.0%).

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Isn't Besley voting for a hike big news? Ok, availability of mortgages and tightening of criteria is what is really going to bring on the crash, but it's nice to know that some on the MPC still believing in targeting inflation.

I assume thats why the £/€ rate has strengthened

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Money supply to the private sector has been slowing significantly in recent months

Do you have inside information from the BOE, I thought the details of who is now borrowing are secret.

I personally think more banks have had funds from the BOE, I don't know as I have no info one way or the other (this comment is included so that the police don't come knocking at my door for endangering the robust economy of the UK).

I do agree that government borrowing isn't going to help.

I hope that sterlings rise is going to last but given the above do you really think so.

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Do you have inside information from the BOE, I thought the details of who is now borrowing are secret.

I personally think more banks have had funds from the BOE, I don't know as I have no info one way or the other (this comment is included so that the police don't come knocking at my door for endangering the robust economy of the UK).

I do agree that government borrowing isn't going to help.

I hope that sterlings rise is going to last but given the above do you really think so.

You can get money supply figures from the Bank of England web site. Separately, public sector net borriwng figures are released on a per month basis, so you can look at the two and gauge what is happening. June's figures are striking and show the government massively stepped up its borrowing the previous month, which is a very worrying sign and suggests the government is desperately seeking to plug holes in the economy.

Sterling's run will not last. In fact sterling's rise over the past month beggars belief when one looks at the economic fundamentals that have been printed out of the UK. The pound has been aided in the short run by a more hawkish sounding BoE, rather illiquid markets for the summer, a thirst for yield owing to the recent demise in equities and euro short covering with many investors worried the euro economy could fall very sharply in the coming months. Sterling is at a highly inflated level against the dollar and it could fall spectacularly. It could experience a very sharp fall from grace. I don't see sterling depreciating too much more against the euro, as both economies are facing similar problems in the quarters ahead and the euro itself has been way over-valued against the dollar all year.

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It is huge news because it was thought if anything all dissent would have come the other way with possibly 2 members voting for a cut. It must be said however that it is not very encouraging as the Bank of England's hawkish stance is merely reactionary and they offer very little insight into how the economy may be dug out of the present hole. This MPC has always been biased to the hawkish side and it really is not a huge surprise that they should dither in the way they have. Headline inflation in the UK is imported and there is little the BoE can do about it, so threatening to raise rates to combat something they cannot confront displays a real lack of creativity, in my view. The UK economy is in a far worse state than the Bank of England seem to believe and their redundant stance makes it look like 1) they hope inflation will just disappear or 2) they are praying for some upside surprises in economic activity over the next month which might help justify an unwarranted rate hike in August.

I have said it before about Governor King - he is the Central Bank Head of least influence over his Monetary Policy Committee. He lacks the decisive touch. Trichet and Bernanke maybe on opposite roads to Damascus, but at least each has a sense of conviction about what they are doing. King appears to be in limbo and is inclined to sway in the direction of the wind.

I have to say I agree with this. I read the Minutes of the last meeting and they do appear to be in 'reactive' mode. I would not be surprised if they cut in the next month or so as a reaction to the deteriorating economy, surprising the market and sending the pound down

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I assume thats why the £/€ rate has strengthened

That and the fact there are major market fears about euro data due for release on Thursday. Lots of traders have closed out in advance.

Of course UK retail sales are also due for release, which are expected to be bad, yet it has not had any adverse effect on sterling today. The currency has grown immune to bad news of late.

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I have to say I agree with this. I read the Minutes of the last meeting and they do appear to be in 'reactive' mode. I would not be surprised if they cut in the next month or so as a reaction to the deteriorating economy, surprising the market and sending the pound down

Much will depend on the retail sales figures tomorrow and the economic activity indices due out at the start of August. It will probably take a combination of real shockers, or the imminent collapse of another Bank, to have them even consider a cut in rates. Despite the contractions evidenced in all sectors of the economy in June, the BoE did not even discuss the possibility of a rate cut at the July meeting, casting aside Mr Blanchflowers opinions.

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  • 401 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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