Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Joey Buttafueco Jr

Bba Mortgage Approvals

Recommended Posts

Historic Qty of mortgages, SA data from 1997, its worth noting that the 21k for house house purchases has been adjusted down by 8k due to seasonal adjustment the NSA data is 29k for houseprices.

BBS_SA_Data.jpg

post-552-1216802708_thumb.jpg

Edited by moosetea

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

remortgaging doesn't seem to be affected too much at the moment. wonder why that is? I thought that the credit crunch has all but killed remortgaging :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes - that's what I thought too.

Did you note this snippet....

"However, even in this rapidly slowing market, net lending has still grown by 12% over the past year"

So when they say there is a 'shortage of credit' or a 'credit crunch' they merely mean that inflation of the money supply by credit creation is insufficient to support house prices at their current elevated level.

The same data in millions of pounds, 12% if all the lines are above 0 lending increases, when the lines drop beneath 0 net lending is decreasing due to repossession. I find it VERY interesting that other secured lending peaked in Nov 03, just before the mini crash

BAA_SA_Millions_lent.jpg

post-552-1216803012_thumb.jpg

Edited by moosetea

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Historic SA data from 1997, its worth noting that the 21k for house house purchases has been adjusted down by 8k due to seasonal adjustment the NSA data is 29k for houseprices.

Remortgaging seems to be holding to the level of the past few years.

On that graph, you can see the real death of MEWing. That's nose-dived down to 90s levels.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"However, even in this rapidly slowing market, net lending has still grown by 12% over the past year"

Could I just clarify what net lending is? Is it simply amount lent minus amount paid back?

What does the fact that net lending has increased while lending for home purchase and MEW has crashed mean? Not much is being paid back? Larger sums are being lent out?...

Peter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At least the rate of decline has decreased

And the rate of rate of decline must have decreased last month

Which means we're at the bottom

And there's never been a better time to buy than now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
remortgaging doesn't seem to be affected too much at the moment. wonder why that is? I thought that the credit crunch has all but killed remortgaging :blink:

There were a lot of resets due this year, because of all the 2 year and 3 year fixed deals taken out (also look at that graph how many new mortgages in 2005-6 were taken out, the teaser rates on these will be ending soon), as the SVR's have jumped drastically this year a lot of people had to remortage to get off this rate. Remortgaging is just moving money around from deal to deal, supplier to supplier, in fact if you remortgage onto a different deal with same provider it probably shows up in these figures, plus the provider gets an upfront fee of 1-2 grand. I think remortrgaging should have increased massively this year, the fact it has remained level is the credit crunch stopping anyone without 15% equity moving mortgage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
At least the rate of decline has decreased

And the rate of rate of decline must have decreased last month

Which means we're at the bottom

And there's never been a better time to buy than now

:blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm at work and unusually busy today but if anyone has the time to follow the links and find out the YoY figure (mysteriously missing from the press release) then I'll be your best friend.

Edit: 66%. Just found it in Durch's thread.

Edited by Selling up

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Without a lengthy explanation of the different sorts of transactions...basically 'yes' to your first question. Straight new lending is called 'gross lending'.

As we've had significant hpi over the last decade, the average ltv on all homes is 30%. The average ltv on new mortgaged purchases is about 80%. The difference is funded by increases in lending - net lending.

To maintain prices at their current levels, this increase in lending will have to continue until such time as an equilibrium is reached whereby the amount being repaid on redemption and added to monthly repayments of principal equals new mortgage lending.

Cheers, that makes sense now,

Peter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thats one in the eye for Mondays "INTEREST RATES DOWN BUYERS FLOOD IN", headlines.

and MSEs Marrtin saying on the telly on Monday.. dont worry, theres PLENTY of mortgages around.

Nah

spelling edit

Edited by Bloo Loo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We're so used to bear food that it's easy to overlook the magnitude of this:

There is ONE THIRD of the amount of credit available to buy houses this month compared to this month last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We're so used to bear food that it's easy to overlook the magnitude of this:

There is ONE THIRD of the amount of credit available to buy houses this month compared to this month last year.

or 12% more...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is plenty of money around for mortgages and remortgages. Loads of it, buckets of it.

BUT

The lenders will not let you have it if you don't have a 10% deposit or if you have bad credit or if you want to borrow 5 times income.

That is why the figures look so bad.

A year ago there was no problem. So the figures will be low for a long long time.

As house prices correct downwards the first time buyers who meet the criteria will enter the market and the house prices will stabilise.

My bet Autumn 2009 40% below peak

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Net lending is up 12% yoy. Please read thread.

Yes but just think what the implications of that are. Banks are having to find more available credit even as new loans for house purchases are down by two thirds. Imagine what net lending would be if new home loans were stable! It seems clear that there is no capacity to increase the supply of new mortgages any time soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quite.

I'm just trying to point out to people there isn't less credit...there is merely 'insufficient' additional credit. This has implications for the whole inflation/deflation gold/fiat discussions.

Where's the additional credit coming from? As I understand things, it isn't coming from MBSs; I doubt that it is coming from additional savings. So, whence?

Peter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quite.

I'm just trying to point out to people there isn't less credit...there is merely 'insufficient' additional credit. This has implications for the whole inflation/deflation gold/fiat discussions.

quite, at the moment there is only 12% more credit available each year...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.