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Buffer Bear

Market Oracle - Hpc Summer 2008

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The latest UK house price data as released by Rightmove shows that the UK housing market crash continues to accelerate by registering a fall of 1.8% for July 08. The rate of decent on an annualised basis now extends to -11% and on a quarterly basis to -6.7%, far above the originally forecast crash rate of 5% per quarter as per analysis of November 2007 for the quarter April to June 08, which came in at -5.8%. The housing market is in full panic selling mode, as property owners slashing prices are met with silence from potential home buyers.
Edited by Buffer Bear

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`On a slightly positive side, the quarterly rate of decent of -6.7% is unsustainable as that would imply a 12 month fall of 26.8%, far beyond anything that Britain has experienced in recorded house price history. Therefore this implies that the rate of decent will start to moderate by the release of September 2008 house price data in October1`

Granted I`m a bit slow but I don`t understand the presumption here...

Edited by Wires 74

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The market on a headline figure could show notional falls of 26% in one year. The issue with this crash compared to last was that the last was caused by high prices and unemployment with people being forced sellers. This crash is caused by hih prices and then the withdrawl of credit hence the transactions this time are so low compared to last. If the only sales going through are auctions i.e the normal mortgage market completly drys up and non distressed sellers and buyers just canot move because of no credit you could see headline falls in excess of 26%.

I am not saying this is going to happen but in and credit crunch armageddon scenario it would.

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A strange article I thought. Is it just me or are those graphs a little odd?

Not too sure about the flood of BTL's hitting the market either. No sign of it here in Brum. If anything the direct opposite appears to be true. Places with little or no interest that are for sale are being put on also To Let. Neither seems to genearte interest. ;)

Don't get me wrong I like what the Oracle has to say from time time to time. The thing is, the author (does he post here?) may have to suggest they'll be a pause in drops as the original prediction now looks bullish :blink:

Maybe i'm too bearish now but the last six weeks feels like the calm before a very harsh storm for housing.

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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