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VeryMeanReversion

Digging Up Earliest Hpc Posts

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In a bored moment, I wondered what the earliest useful post was and found number #9. (RJG18 post from 2004)

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=9

Post summary was:

"This will now only return prices back to a level of affordability (i.e. where an average worker can afford an average worker property), which is about 30% below current prices, but the negative sentiment and aversion to property purchase that the massive and rapid price falls will have caused will actually cause an undershoot and prices will fall below their lonterm trend for a period. This will take total falls in prices to around 50% (national average) below current peak prices. All this time, lending on property becomes an increasingly high risk to the banks, who will continue to further restrict the amount of money they will lends on property, causing further downward pressure."

What I found interesting was that the magnitude of the predicted falls was around the same as now i.e. Expect 30%, undershoot to 50%. However, this post was predicting it from 2004 prices.

Maybe bears always think prices should go down 30%-50% ? Have we been boiling with the other frogs?

The Economist was predicting 30-35% price drops in 2003. Maybe this is as far as any forecaster can say without appearing to be a complete nutter. Anyone else notice the predictions in the press are moving as a herd, very few are prepared to stand out.

Makes you wonder if this time is going to be bigger than 50%, as eventually an average worker should be able to buy the average house.

I guess it's all psychology if you think about it ;)

VMR.

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This forum goes back to well before 2004, doesn't it? I thought it started in 2002 when the FT forum closed...

The OP in the link mentions the new forum and that this was a re-post.

Maybe everything before then is lost.

Just as well really, I wouldn't want to read posts about STRing in '02.

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The OP in the link mentions the new forum and that this was a re-post.

Maybe everything before then is lost.

Just as well really, I wouldn't want to read posts about STRing in '02.

What, was this forum re-started or something at some stage?

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Yes, it was an old style forum which was totally overhauled to the new type (which is this). I'm not sure if you can view the old forum anymore...

Edit to add: The old forum was hosted by a hosting company.

Edited by Jason

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Yikes doesn't time fly!

Not so many bulls around these days :lol:

Expensive property prices were the reason this site started. How long ago was that!

Its hard to believe its taken so long to get the turnaround we always believed would happen.

Mr Joe.

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In a bored moment, I wondered what the earliest useful post was and found number #9. (RJG18 post from 2004)

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=9

Post summary was:

"This will now only return prices back to a level of affordability (i.e. where an average worker can afford an average worker property), which is about 30% below current prices, but the negative sentiment and aversion to property purchase that the massive and rapid price falls will have caused will actually cause an undershoot and prices will fall below their lonterm trend for a period. This will take total falls in prices to around 50% (national average) below current peak prices. All this time, lending on property becomes an increasingly high risk to the banks, who will continue to further restrict the amount of money they will lends on property, causing further downward pressure."

What I found interesting was that the magnitude of the predicted falls was around the same as now i.e. Expect 30%, undershoot to 50%. However, this post was predicting it from 2004 prices.

Maybe bears always think prices should go down 30%-50% ? Have we been boiling with the other frogs?

The Economist was predicting 30-35% price drops in 2003. Maybe this is as far as any forecaster can say without appearing to be a complete nutter. Anyone else notice the predictions in the press are moving as a herd, very few are prepared to stand out.

Makes you wonder if this time is going to be bigger than 50%, as eventually an average worker should be able to buy the average house.

I guess it's all psychology if you think about it ;)

VMR.

This makes the most sense to me the more I think about it, especially with 3 times multipliers and average interest rates of 6%. Then average incomes.

I think houses were overpriced 2003/2004 and then it just jumped - so we have to get back to that plateau and then go down again. The trouble is we are so far into the realms of mew and therefore normal people in negative equity that I think it is a bit scary to think about.

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Yes, it was an old style forum which was totally overhauled to the new type (which is this). I'm not sure if you can view the old forum anymore...

Edit to add: The old forum was hosted by a hosting company.

Ahhh - this explains why I had to re-register last year...

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I think we shouldnt put too much time on the timing of these things. In any debt fuelled asset bubble the price can deviate for a very longtime from the fundamentals. The fundamentals were deteriorating for a longtime,however, the actual change in sentiment and the bursting of a bubble can take a longtime. While we all know that it will burst, knowing when or trying to predict when is difficult...The best thing is let price or the market tell you when the bubble is popped. The Asian tigers from 1994 were in bubble territory but didnt burst until 1997, 3 years after...So i think it is best to wait and see by a change in price trend perhaps with a moving average of price...however, many bubbles also end with some "large events",like bank failures, fraud scandals,accountacny scandals, like the ones from the rSG rogue traders...I think that with the onset of the events last summer, and two Bear Stearn hedge funds going belly up in July, and the NR we knew that the housing bubble had burst, or the credit bubble....Rather than trying to put a date on a collapse better to wait until price changes direction, some marked event and sentiment..

Edited by VedantaTrader

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I think houses were overpriced 2003/2004 and then it just jumped - so we have to get back to that plateau and then go down again. The trouble is we are so far into the realms of mew and therefore normal people in negative equity that I think it is a bit scary to think about.

Any rational thought about the situation seems to generate (apparently) impossible answers.

Any Zen masters out there? Does a house price bear defaecating in the woods make any sound if no-one is listening? Do sellers exist when there are no buyers?

VMR.

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I just started my rightmove(property bee) search in the £400k mark to see what I can get9(coz it will be sub £200k soonish). o look I can get what I had 11 years ago :).

Also to note is that the cars on the drives are all ordinary people cars. i.e. either they are not status driven or they cant afford(properly afford) a better one. i.e. they wouldnt have a hope in hell of doing the job they do now and buying the house they have now.

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I just started my rightmove(property bee) search in the £400k mark to see what I can get9(coz it will be sub £200k soonish). o look I can get what I had 11 years ago :).

Also to note is that the cars on the drives are all ordinary people cars. i.e. either they are not status driven or they cant afford(properly afford) a better one. i.e. they wouldnt have a hope in hell of doing the job they do now and buying the house they have now.

London and Northern Ireland are the only areas that have seen noticeable rises since 04.... The rest of the country has been boring at best only slight above the 04 price, and no change or down on 04 prices adjusted for inflation:

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/odpm_regional/

As you can see 30% off the 04 price, is no different to saying 30% off the 08 price adjusted for inflation (if you live north of london and dont live in Northern Ireland) Oh and Northern Ireland/London/South skews the nationwide stats ;p

odpm_regional.php.png

post-552-1216726312_thumb.png

Edited by moosetea

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Makes you wonder if this time is going to be bigger than 50%, as eventually an average worker should be able to buy the average house.

I guess it's all psychology if you think about it ;)

VMR.

We're looking at 60-70% drops by the end of this coming recession imho........

Edited by eric pebble

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London and Northern Ireland are the only areas that have seen noticeable rises since 04.... The rest of the country has been boring at best only slight above the 04 price, and no change or down on 04 prices adjusted for inflation:

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/odpm_regional/

As you can see 30% off the 04 price, is no different to saying 30% off the 08 price adjusted for inflation (if you live north of london and dont live in Northern Ireland)

I am in the Brighton sort of area. So it did go up after 2004 and I guess my goggles are south of the M25 :)

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Any rational thought about the situation seems to generate (apparently) impossible answers.

Any Zen masters out there? Does a house price bear defaecating in the woods make any sound if no-one is listening? Do sellers exist when there are no buyers?

VMR.

If you understand, things are just as they are. If you don't understand, things are just as they are.

:rolleyes:

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I wouldn't want to read posts about STRing in '02.

:lol:

"My two bed flat in Fulham has just sold for £150k!! Can you believe it!? At this rate we will be in a global depression by 2005. Iain Duncan Smith is going to have his hands full sorting this mess out."

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London and Northern Ireland are the only areas that have seen noticeable rises since 04.... The rest of the country has been boring at best only slight above the 04 price, and no change or down on 04 prices adjusted for inflation:

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/odpm_regional/

As you can see 30% off the 04 price, is no different to saying 30% off the 08 price adjusted for inflation (if you live north of london and dont live in Northern Ireland) Oh and Northern Ireland/London/South skews the nationwide stats ;p

Totally agree 2004 was the inflation adjusted peak for most of the non-Celtic and non-London regions.So as far as most of the Country was concerned HPC got its timing spot on.Just makes you want to see red when you get London centric posts about timing being wrong.Nevertheless,despite four years of stagnation,I believe even the flatliners are now tanking eg..Sheffield -17% YOY.

Edited by crashmonitor

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:lol:

"My two bed flat in Fulham has just sold for £150k!! Can you believe it!? At this rate we will be in a global depression by 2005. Iain Duncan Smith is going to have his hands full sorting this mess out."

:lol::lol::lol:

'God I can't wait to get rid of Blair, we can only hope and pray that the prudent Gordon Brown will bring some much needed sensible stewardship to the top job'.

I dread to think what my early posts were about, I'll bet it was some ranting about the ludicrous price of flats in central Manchester. If I knew then what I know now......(i.e. that I was going to move back to Scotland and that said flats would become virtually worthless within 12-18 months from now).

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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