Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Neitherland

London To Only Fall 10%.......

Recommended Posts

Of course it's just one prediction from one obscure think tank called "Ernst & Young ITEM Club", even though the journo in question added the obligatory "influential"

The ITEM club have got it so wrong the past, that it should no longer be news worthy.

In fact, I couldn't be bothered to click the link....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The ITEM club have got it so wrong the past, that it should no longer be news worthy.

In fact, I couldn't be bothered to click the link....

I think the reason that they are often claimed to be influential is that they are supposed to "use the same economic model as the Treasury" - whatever that's suppsoed to mean (Tresaury forecasts are always accurate)

In fact, doesn't that just mean their too useless to come up with their own model?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"ITEM chief economist Peter Spencer said the London property market had not surged as spectacularly as other parts of the country in the run-up to the property slump."

Now that I've read the report and can appreciate the importance of it ...ha ha ha ha

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
but it's fallen more than 10% already!

Yeah, I thought it should read London has only fallen ten percent as well. I'm sure if you shopped around now, you'd be able to get a place for ten percent less than comparable were going for last year. Of course there are people sticking on comparable at 2 percent more than last year, but then you don't go and buy that one do you? It just sits there on rightmove and clutters things up. Just as the competitively priced ones seem to be doing too!

I feel a smiley coming on.

:P

There, that's better.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
but it's fallen more than 10% already!

If you imagine the experts predictions last year were for a 2% rise which had now manifested into a 35% CRASH, 10% prediction would equate to 47% drop in reality. :lol::lol::lol::lol:

Looking forward to the flood of excuses e.g Soft Landing, Interest Rates have dropped 0.01% etc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If you imagine the experts predictions last year were for a 2% rise which had now manifested into a 35% CRASH, 10% prediction would equate to 47% drop in reality. :lol::lol::lol::lol:

Looking forward to the flood of excuses e.g Soft Landing, Interest Rates have dropped 0.01% etc

Ernst and Young ITEM club is nothing more than a bogus Think Tank full of vested interest wannabee economists who have as much clout in the financial world as a three-chord, root position, new age folk guitarist at an international Segovia convention. It claims a data and analysis system "uniquely modelled" to reveal truths that other Think Tanks can only dream about. The absurdity of this claim is quickly revealed by ITEM club's front page current news where it states:

Core inflation is only 1.6%, so the CPI should be back in its 1%‑3% target range by the end of next year, allowing interest rates to fall to 4%.

How anyone can take this total nonsense seriously is beyond me. It would be hilarious except for the fact that newspapers and financial journalists actually do seem to be taking them seriously. What a load of old vested interest cobblers.

VP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

london will be the hardest hit, for sure

i remember locations people wouldnt enter if you paid them!, like N1 which is where they shot 40 days later its that much of a dump. now a 3bed house will set you back 800k?

hhahahhaah

MR & MRS average earning a combined £50k in london sitting in their "800k house" are in for a shock when its down to 250k!

these people should have cashed in and moved to spain or where ever, never need to work again. that alone tells you how overvalued they got. not to mention in decent areas of london you can get 3 bed homes for 250k why would you pay 500k more 3miles down the road??

the positive feedback went into overdrive in london.

definitly going to be the hardest hit!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ernst and Young ITEM club is nothing more than a bogus Think Tank full of vested interest wannabee economists who have as much clout in the financial world as a three-chord, root position, new age folk guitarist at an international Segovia convention. It claims a data and analysis system "uniquely modelled" to reveal truths that other Think Tanks can only dream about. The absurdity of this claim is quickly revealed by ITEM club's front page current news where it states:

Core inflation is only 1.6%, so the CPI should be back in its 1%‑3% target range by the end of next year, allowing interest rates to fall to 4%.

How anyone can take this total nonsense seriously is beyond me. It would be hilarious except for the fact that newspapers and financial journalists actually do seem to be taking them seriously. What a load of old vested interest cobblers.

VP

How is it that so many "economists" seem to miss the fact that the fastest growing parts of the global economy all have their currencies tied directly to the dollar and that current dollar interest rates are set at 2%. When an economy has fixed exchange rates, then it must follow the same interest rate policies of the currency it is tied to. This means that in China, Russia, India and the Middle East, where inflation is running at around 10% or more, interest rates are all effectively set at 2%. In other words, the banks are paying you around 8% just to borrow as much cash as possible and buy and build as much stuff to sell as you possibly can whether it makes economic sense or not to actually be building the stuff. Given that sort of environment, why would you possibly expect the price of any internationally traded commodity to come down?

Edited by RichC

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let's not forget that a short time ago, the Item club were suggesting that the problem with the inflation figures is that it included things that were going up a lot and therefore these whould be taken out, allowing inflation to fall and IRs to be cut.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Let's not forget that a short time ago, the Item club were suggesting that the problem with the inflation figures is that it included things that were going up a lot and therefore these whould be taken out, allowing inflation to fall and IRs to be cut.

UBELIEVABLE.

Petrol is costing me too much so lets not use it. So what the f88k am I going use - urine?

ITEM is now on my ignore and filter list.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"ITEM chief economist Peter Spencer said the London property market had not surged as spectacularly as other parts of the country in the run-up to the property slump."

Now that I've read the report and can appreciate the importance of it ...ha ha ha ha

WTF? Are they serious? Berkley homes are trying to sell one bedroom flats in Forest Hill for £250,000, and that's with no balcony or roof terrace. A QUARTER OF A MILLION POUNDS!!!! And they're saying it hasn't gone over the top?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If London property has only fallen 2% then why do I know people that have just accepted an offer on their Kensington property that's over 16% less than its valuation in April last year and are just praying the sale doesn't fall through?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Winnie

The Item Club is a phoney set-up of pseudo-experts (ie bluffers)

It publishes hugely biased reports at times when the MPC is meeting or Gordon has nudged them. (Note that the minites of the MPC are due today and will probably be bearish - so up pops E&Y with some bull.)

They work for a) NewLiebor and B) Big Business

Think David Smith multiplied into a committee and allowed to run riot via its Media Relations team........................................ also i suspect that the E&Y Partners all have horrific London mortgages..................yes?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.