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Today I valued my first repossession this time around. Took me straight back to the early 1990s. Why do so many repos have some childrens toys left in them? Its a gutty buisness.

The EA who held the keys was a pleasant chap who clearly knew his buisness and he made a few comments.

''First of many I suppose, just like last time''

''We keep reducing the asking prices trying to find the new market level but we havent found it yet.''

''I go out doing valuations and I know what peoples aspirations are but I dont know at what price houses are going to start selling again''

This man had been in the buisness in the last recession.

Estate agent are among natures optimists but the ones I have met lately are as bearish as an HPC poster covered in brown fur digging a latrine in the woods.

Here we go again. Clench your buttocks tight this is going to be a big one.

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Today I valued my first repossession this time around. Took me straight back to the early 1990s. Why do so many repos have some childrens toys left in them? Its a gutty buisness.

The EA who held the keys was a pleasant chap who clearly knew his buisness and he made a few comments.

''First of many I suppose, just like last time''

''We keep reducing the asking prices trying to find the new market level but we havent found it yet.''

''I go out doing valuations and I know what peoples aspirations are but I dont know at what price houses are going to start selling again''

This man had been in the buisness in the last recession.

Estate agent are among natures optimists but the ones I have met lately are as bearish as an HPC poster covered in brown fur digging a latrine in the woods.

Here we go again. Clench your buttocks tight this is going to be a big one.

For all our vitriol about EAs, I daresay the survivors are a decent bunch. Best of luck to them too... they will have been the managers that stashed away serious cash, sacked half to 3/4 of the staff at the start of the downturn and now looking to batten down the hatches. If I owned an EA, I would not bother working. Shut up shop and live like a hermit for 3 years. At least that way, you will survive and prosper from the next boom.

Its the lazy foxtons types I despise....

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Here we go again. Clench your buttocks tight this is going to be a big one.

Great post - clearly its different this time.

A new market will be found based at a level where indebted FTBers can enter the market. Not forgetting they are ideally employed in industries not connected to housing, retail and finance. Plus the higher cost of fuel and food must also be allowed for.

Theres a long way to fall.

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Took me straight back to the early 1990s. Why do so many repos have some childrens toys left in them? Its a gutty buisness.

Always interesting to read from those at the front line - thanks Freeholder.

However, the above quote isn't nice. Sadly alot will get hurt by this mess.

Alot of people I speak seem to think the market may have "bottomed".

I've been told twice in three days to make sure I don't "miss the turning point".

I think there is some way to go yet before we reach that stage. I don't think panic selling has really started in earnest yet.

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SE london/NW Kent

Sorry cant be specific. I need my job.

thanks for that, the upside is that lenders are doing more than last time to stave of repossession, (perhaps the v. quick turnaround in prices has caused a re-think) hopefully we won't see a massive spike in homeowner repos. If there is a spike IMHO it'll come from jingle mail BTLers.

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thanks for that, the upside is that lenders are doing more than last time to stave of repossession,

Is that really true. I saw a quote on the 'deperately seeking mortgage' programe saying the lenders were being more trigger happy than in the 90's crash- the notion being that they wanted shot of the poor risk lenders quickly.

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lenders are doing more than last time to stave of repossession, (perhaps the v. quick turnaround in prices has caused a re-think) hopefully we won't see a massive spike in homeowner repos. If there is a spike IMHO it'll come from jingle mail BTLers.

I'm a bit surprised by that. I'd have thought lenders would be keen to repossess asap before prices fall any furhter

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in answer to the last 2 posts I wonder if the availability of far more market intelligence will help slow the desire for repos this time. Agents bemoaning inventory, auctions not selling, house prices falling from YoY positive 15% to negative 6% inside 12 months...etc. will help concentrate their minds. Also various govt mandarins may be leaning on lenders to help lubricate matters. Having said that repos are a lagging indicator and in the last downturn you got help from the govt to pay the mortgage immediately, now unless the mortgage is pre 1995 (iirc) you get nada... Repos will rise, hope it's not in the 'exponential' manner that prices are falling, Uk plc does not have the infrastructure to cope with mass family evictions....other than those massive amounts of unsold, unfinished empty high rise apartments, maybe if you fall on hard times you'll have to scrub off the graffitti in the shared corridors, before you get your dole chq, before you can move in..... :blink: Sounds like a 'Gordo plan'....

Edited by Converted Lurker

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thanks for that, the upside is that lenders are doing more than last time to stave of repossession, (perhaps the v. quick turnaround in prices has caused a re-think) hopefully we won't see a massive spike in homeowner repos. If there is a spike IMHO it'll come from jingle mail BTLers.

Perhaps the more thoughtfull amongst them remember the hit they took last time when repos were sold very cheap. I have it anecdotally that they are paying a lot more attention to how the marketing is conducted and what price is obtained this time.

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in answer to the last 2 posts I wonder if the availability of far more market intelligence will help slow the desire for repos this time. Agents bemoaning inventory, auctions not selling, house prices falling from YoY positive 15% to negative 6% inside 12 months...etc. will help concentrate their minds. Also various govt mandarins may be leaning on lenders to help lubricate matters. Having said that repos are a lagging indicator and in the last downturn you got help from the govt to pay the mortgage immediately, now unless the mortgage is pre 1995 (iirc) you get nada... Repos will rise, hope it's not in the 'exponential' manner that prices are falling, Uk plc does not have the infrastructure to cope with mass family evictions....other than those massive amounts of unsold, unfinished empty high rise apartments, maybe if you fall on hard times you'll have to scrub off the graffitti in the shared corridors, before you get your dole chq, before you can move in..... :blink: Sounds like a 'Gordo plan'....

sort of related question

do lenders still take out mortgage indemnity guarantees to cover them if they lose out due to negative equity following repossession?

these were v common in the last crash - not heard of them for years but then neg eq has not been a problem for years

edit: typos

Edited by newdman

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Today I valued my first repossession this time around.

How do you value property these days. If you can say how much would the property have been last year and what was your valuation.

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sort of related question

do lenders still take out mortgage indemnity guarantees to cover them if they lose out due to negative equity following repossession?

these were v common in the last crash - not heard of them for years but then neg eq has not been a problem for years

edit: typos

d'ya know I was thinking of this the other day whilst musing on the monoline subject, which appears to have fallen off the radar <_< ....not sure is my answer, it was always something you had to pay (for the lender) to get them to give you a mortgage wasnt it. However, I reckon they became more popular early 90's, as opposed to mid late eighties, horse > gate > bolted etc....Perhaps its' a contrarian indicator, when these are re-introduced we've hit bottom?

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d'ya know I was thinking of this the other day whilst musing on the monoline subject, which appears to have fallen off the radar <_< ....not sure is my answer, it was always something you had to pay (for the lender) to get them to give you a mortgage wasnt it. However, I reckon they became more popular early 90's, as opposed to mid late eighties, horse > gate > bolted etc....Perhaps its' a contrarian indicator, when these are re-introduced we've hit bottom?

I think the "Higher Lending Fee" was used to pay for the policy - but you don't see Higher Lending Fees much these days

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I think the "Higher Lending Fee" was used to pay for the policy - but you don't see Higher Lending Fees much these days

nope, it was a mortgage indemnity fee. Nice eh... "please pay our insurance in case you default, but that's just to cover any loss at disposal honest....shhhh.....we couldn't possibly let the plebs know it's to cover all losses could we... :ph34r:

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thanks for that, the upside is that lenders are doing more than last time to stave of repossession, (perhaps the v. quick turnaround in prices has caused a re-think) hopefully we won't see a massive spike in homeowner repos. If there is a spike IMHO it'll come from jingle mail BTLers.

Dunno, if I had shares in a bank I'd want them to be repossessing and auctioning properties in default before the value of the collateral collapses further. But then I don't think that values/prosperity are going to bounce back, enabling all this to be magicked away...

Edit: and where the mortgage has been securitised, the terms of the bond will presumably specify what happens in the event of default (unlikely to be 'let borrowers stay in properties', I would have thought). Similarly, where a mortgage has been funded with short-term borrowed money, the bank may be under extreme pressure to recover whatever it can to meet its own obligations.

Edited by huw

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nope, it was a mortgage indemnity fee. Nice eh... "please pay our insurance in case you default, but that's just to cover any loss at disposal honest....shhhh.....we couldn't possibly let the plebs know it's to cover all losses could we... :ph34r:

yep, you're right, the MIG fee - you don't see these either anymore AFAIK - so maybe they stopped taking them out (big mistake) - or it could just be factored into the price another way

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Dunno, if I had shares in a bank I'd want them to be repossessing and auctioning properties in default before the value of the collateral collapses further. But then I don't think that values/prosperity are going to bounce back, enabling all this to be magicked away...

atm I reckon it's all 'computer modelled', will that change with more direct intervention by decision makers as things worsen? Even a 25% drop in prices and the losses will be massive - industry wide, I'm not sure they can afford these losses and as plenty of folk have intimated, lenders do not want to take the losses on board atm, otherwise their figures look even more disastrous... :blink:

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atm I reckon it's all 'computer modelled', will that change with more direct intervention by decision makers as things worsen? Even a 25% drop in prices and the losses will be massive - industry wide, I'm not sure they can afford these losses and as plenty of folk have intimated, lenders do not want to take the losses on board atm, otherwise their figures look even more disastrous... :blink:

In which case we end up with 'zombie banks' as I understand happened in Japan, where they are technically bust but just won't admit to it :unsure:

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atm I reckon it's all 'computer modelled', will that change with more direct intervention by decision makers as things worsen? Even a 25% drop in prices and the losses will be massive - industry wide, I'm not sure they can afford these losses and as plenty of folk have intimated, lenders do not want to take the losses on board atm, otherwise their figures look even more disastrous... :blink:

sort of linkign a coiuple of bits together here

would a MIG still work with SIVs and CDOs - who would be insured?- is this what you were thinking about with yuor musings on monoline insurers?

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lenders do not want to take the losses on board atm, otherwise their figures look even more disastrous...
In which case we end up with 'zombie banks' as I understand happened in Japan, where they are technically bust but just won't admit to it

Better to come up with a State-owned "Bad Bank" to take on unperforming debt like the Nordics did in the early 90s? Wait they've got a very naughty one already - Northern Rock!

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Perhaps the more thoughtfull amongst them remember the hit they took last time when repos were sold very cheap. I have it anecdotally that they are paying a lot more attention to how the marketing is conducted and what price is obtained this time.

That's interesting, because they have no reason at all to care this time around, when they will have sold the mortgages on to other people and mortgage indemnity policies are no longer relevant.

They must be more worried about getting sued this time.

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That's interesting, because they have no reason at all to care this time around, when they will have sold the mortgages on to other people and mortgage indemnity policies are no longer relevant.

They must be more worried about getting sued this time.

Yes, they are more worried about being sued. They also have big problems with PPI (Personal Protection Insurance), and charges applied to mortgage accounts including extortionate legal fees and agents fees. If they repo'd all of the properties they wanted to, they would be sitting on an enormous amount of depreciating assets. Best to hold off, and let the debtor take the hit.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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