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Wigler

How Quickly Will Things Deteriorate?

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I know that we could (or already have?) reach a tipping point where things get exponentially worse, rising cost of living, people losing jobs etc.

But how quickly do you think things will change?

I'm renting at the moment and have the option of moving out at in 4 months, or sitting out the whole contract.

I want to move to Asia, 4 months away could be too soon and 10 months from now might be too far in the future.

What do you guys think?

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I know that we could (or already have?) reach a tipping point where things get exponentially worse, rising cost of living, people losing jobs etc.

But how quickly do you think things will change?

I'm renting at the moment and have the option of moving out at in 4 months, or sitting out the whole contract.

I want to move to Asia, 4 months away could be too soon and 10 months from now might be too far in the future.

What do you guys think?

You can run but you can't hide. From what I've been reading I think the general consensus amongst respected bears like Peter Schiff, John Williams, Jim Puplava, etc.. is that America is currently in a recession and will be in a depression by 2010. It's hard to see how this won't have a knock-on effect globally, but with varying orders of magnitude in different world regions. The global economy is so vastly complex and interlinked that it's almost impossible to make a 'best' choice in what is effectively a chaotic system that is contained somewhat within orderly frameworks imposed by local government. An economic collapse of the US could unleash global economic chaos. Not something to look forward to, but a distinct possibility.

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You can run but you can't hide. From what I've been reading I think the general consensus amongst respected bears like Peter Schiff, John Williams, Jim Puplava, etc.. is that America is currently in a recession and will be in a depression by 2010. It's hard to see how this won't have a knock-on effect globally, but with varying orders of magnitude in different world regions. The global economy is so vastly complex and interlinked that it's almost impossible to make a 'best' choice in what is effectively a chaotic system that is contained somewhat within orderly frameworks imposed by local government. An economic collapse of the US could unleash global economic chaos. Not something to look forward to, but a distinct possibility.

I know Asia can be volatile, and foreigners are the first to be thrown into camps etc.

My rationale is that the my purchasing power and standard of living will drop if I stay in the UK. In Asia I might get more purchasing power locally (and eventually globally when the currencies such as the Yuan appreciate against the other currencies. Peter Schiff and Jim Rogers are moving all their wealth to Asia, yes we're all going to suffer but Asia will have the cash to make it a bit easier.

Worst scenario is that I have to come back to Europe and that I've had an interesting experience.

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Worst scenario is that I have to come back to Europe and that I've had an interesting experience.

Answered your own question. I'm envious I wish I had the freedoms to up and leave.

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It will take a long time for things to become bad. In the last recession things started going wrong in 1990, but it wasn't until 1992 that the job market hit rock bottom (I was at Uni, but there was no summer job for me that year :( ).

There are leading indicators (the stock market) and lagging indicators (unemployment, house prices).

Go off to Asia - if you've not been before the civilised society is a revelation. I've been to both Hong Kong and Tokyo, and both were dazzling. I'd be off to work there in a flash if I could figure out the languages (spoken Japanese is easier than Chinese, but that's not saying much!!!). Oddly enough, stuff in Japan is cheaper than London, and I could afford to eat out every night. In Hong Kong I felt like a millionaire, and it's not even considered cheap compared to Thailand etc.

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I am afraid that it will get worse very quickly. I do not think a comparison with the last recession is appropriate (sorry), so you should work on an assumption that the speed of the economic collapse is going to be extremely fast. The problem is that the UK economy is actually structurally bankrupt.

I am aware that this is a dramatic statement. However, I would suggest a long read through here. In particular there is a long essay that explains why here (the section on the house market will present arguments familiar to those who view this site). The second link takes you to a fairly long essay, but it should be worth the read.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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