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I Reckon We're Past The Bull Trap. Here's Why....

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I reckon we're past the bull trap stage. I'd guess we're between In Denial and Fear stage.

Look at the two graphs attached and they match each other. We're heading for the fear stage according to the graphs.

crash_comparison2.gif

psychology_of_house_price_bubble.jpg

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post-7628-1216468808_thumb.jpg

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I reckon we're past the bull trap stage. I'd guess we're between In Denial and Fear stage.

Look at the two graphs attached and they match each other. We're heading for the fear stage according to the graphs.

Don't be so pessimistic. I think the bull trap will come next spring when we're 25%+ off the peak, in time for "green shoots of recovery" comments. Only then will we hit the fear stage, and a complete free fall.

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Don't be so pessimistic. I think the bull trap will come next spring when we're 25%+ off the peak, in time for "green shoots of recovery" comments. Only then will we hit the fear stage, and a complete free fall.

I totally agree, I have told several people that the first quarter of next year will be the calm before the storm, shares and the property market are going to hell in a hand basket next summer - that's what my models show and they haven't let me down so far!

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Don't be so pessimistic. I think the bull trap will come next spring when we're 25%+ off the peak, in time for "green shoots of recovery" comments. Only then will we hit the fear stage, and a complete free fall.

The "green shoots" will have nothing to feed on. ;)

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Look at the two graphs attached and they match each other. We're heading for the fear stage according to the graphs.

The Telegraph graph should be on the front page. This bust is a scorcher.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

I have seen a wiggly line that looks a bit like a wiggly line I've seen before.

I avoid thinking about scaling and resolution. If it has a wiggle up then a wiggle down it must be the same.

I am a chartist.

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The "green shoots" will have nothing to feed on. ;)

Quick, let's manufacture a substitute......something that feeds on itself :rolleyes:

Whilst DYIV quotes the rare, unpublished, post burn-out Chaucer :(

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The Telegraph graph should be on the front page. This bust is a scorcher.

we track the US financially,and politically(probably because both central banks are owned by the same people)

One only needs to look to our sister market in California to see the magnitude of what is coming.We saw that the 1970's was full of inflation and rampant commodity speculation,and in the 1980's it was primarily germany and japan that called the shots financially.

we find ourselves in a similar predicament today.This time around the amplitude is greater.We can look forward to the German-centric EU and china being the world drivers.

I can't yet figure out if what we are in is a carbon-copy of 1973,or 1978 in terms of the cycle,but I do find it highly amusing that the mainstream media have already plastered lots of 70's style programmes on telly.

....pop idol=new faces etc.

britain's got talent.....royal variety at the astoria.

dr who is back

ray mears.....the good life??(this one could be quite telling,are they telling us this bust is on steroids??)

on the bright side,we will get good music and good comedy(eventually)

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we track the US financially,and politically(probably because both central banks are owned by the same people)

One only needs to look to our sister market in California to see the magnitude of what is coming.We saw that the 1970's was full of inflation and rampant commodity speculation,and in the 1980's it was primarily germany and japan that called the shots financially.

we find ourselves in a similar predicament today.This time around the amplitude is greater.We can look forward to the German-centric EU and china being the world drivers.

I can't yet figure out if what we are in is a carbon-copy of 1973,or 1978 in terms of the cycle,but I do find it highly amusing that the mainstream media have already plastered lots of 70's style programmes on telly.

....pop idol=new faces etc.

britain's got talent.....royal variety at the astoria.

dr who is back

ray mears.....the good life??(this one could be quite telling,are they telling us this bust is on steroids??)

on the bright side,we will get good music and good comedy(eventually)

Who will be the new Gary Glitter I wonder :huh:

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Who will be the new Gary Glitter I wonder :huh:

Such a shame about Gary. When I was 8 we really used to bop our sox off to his 'do you wanna touch me' song. Course we had no idea what that mean't or that we would have been in with a big chance! (we thought we had no hope because he liked big girls with bouncing bosums)

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When do we get to 'laughing hysterically and pimping your wife and 18 year old daughter on the Internet' stage?

How about 'packing my bags, leaving you and I am taking the Audi car keys' stage?

Or the 'blowing my brains out' stage? which inevitably leads to 'Done a runner and sitting on a Thai beach surround by gorgeous women... I hope they are women' stage?

Just asking.

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That first graph, comapring the late 1980s with now is stunning. I wonder if the steepness of the downward blue curve has to do with the fact that we have a number of catastrophic events converging on each other at the moment - credit bubble collapse and energy crunch for instance.

Edited by 1929crash

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That first graph, comapring the late 1980s with now is stunning. I wonder if the steepness of the downward blue curve has to do with the fact that we have a number of catastrophic events converging on each other at the moment - credit bubble collapse and energy crunch for instance.

Hold on a sec - the graphs are absolute values not inflation adjusted. Inflation in 1990 was higher, so it's not QUITE as bad as it looks. Peak to trough falls in cash terms were only 13% IIRC

Doesn't change the main point though, which is that this one is a biggie.

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  • 401 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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