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On newsnight about a week ago Paxman was saying that catholic churches were finding their congregations noticeably declining because the Polish and other migrant workers were leaving the country.

About 10 years ago your usual bar (I'm talking about London) was staffed by Aus/Kiwis/SA crowd having a laugh for 2 years, then going home.

More recently I've found the bars staffed by eastern europeans, and struggling to make a booking in a Surrey country hotel because the staff could barely speak english.

Will we need to go back to speaking Ozzie to get a pint soon?

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thanks for flagging this up

very interesting

undoubtedly bad for btl/rents as we expect

the other thing is interest rates

if the poles etc going means that british workers can push for wage increases then we are in for a longer period of high rates

personally i suspect we're going to see a sharp rise in unemployment even amongst brits and the boe will be cutting rates aggressively next year

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On newsnight about a week ago Paxman was saying that catholic churches were finding their congregations noticeably declining because the Polish and other migrant workers were leaving the country.

On the (Catholic) ground I can say that this is happening, but a bit more slowly than being reported. I also think that there may be an issue with Poles lapsing after a few weeks/months of fitful Mass attendence. However where I am there is a long established Polish Catholic community with their own Mass, etc, so we saw a smaller influx in our parish and are probably seeing a smaller decline as well.

We are still seeing large numbers of Catholic Indians coming in, though (Christians are over-represented among immigrant Indian IT workers - at least in Ipswich - due to the better levels of education), so I don't think immigration is totally dead.

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Have never read singing pig forums before... had a quick look at the "under-25's" forum to see what my wealthy counterparts are up to.

I gotta say, they're really flat-out bloody stupid, still flocking to acquire large BTL portfolios, egged on by the regulars who want to sell them theirs. :lol:

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Nearly all the extra demand for property to rent was from economic migrants or student rental with the government push for a degree for everybody that could sign their name and date the top of an examination paper.

BTL was promoted so that a controlled invasion could occur and the BTL relied on it occurring to even partially fund it.

It's over Rover. This cored out country has increasingly little to offer anybody. On top of the 10k's if not into the 100K's of empty properties that have been bought off plan with no intention other than to flip and never rent out this is shaping up to be just as big a wipe out in rents. High inflation will force occupation density up and single dwellers out of the largest and most expensive properties unless they have high income to service it or are willing to get in hock to stay.

Just like HPI it seems when the juggernaut turned all factors that pointed upwards pretty much all point downwards for the rental sector too.

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and the boe will be cutting rates aggressively next year

Why would they do that? Interest rates in the credit markets are now detached from central bank interest rates.

The drops in the States to 2% have done nothing - except unleash inflation as the currency falls and foreign goods become more expensive.

I can't see the BOE cutting rates - agressively, or otherwise, - for years.

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Where have all the tenants gone?

Laugh? I nearly kieched ma breeks!

In a little over a year on this site, I think that is probably my favourite single post.

The great rent crash that has started in the North has now hit London.

Oversupply is oversupply.

We are now going to enter an extraordinary vicious circle, as repo-ed BTL flats are put back on the market at new low rents, driving ever more BTLs into bankruptcy.

Thing is I can't actually see how there is a natural bottom to this market.

FTBs won't start buying unless;

A. prices stop falling, and

B. it is cheaper to buy than rent (or at least not much different).

So house prices will keep on going down as long as rents are going down.

And rents will keep on going down as long as house prices are going down.

So presumably in Leeds or Nottingham, rents will stabilise at approximately zero, and poky flats will have the nominal value of £30k - £50k that they always did have in the North.

I guess in London rents in say New Cross or Deptford will stabilise at a couple of hundred Naira/Lek pcm, while rents in zone 1 will stabilise at the cost of a monthly travel card from New Cross (plus a couple of hundred Naira/Lek). So that would give central London rents for a two bed flat of roughly £300-£400 pcm; so giving a price, on a 7% yield, of say £70k.

Can anybody give a coherent reason why rents, and so rabbit hutch prices, would stabilise any higher than this?

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Nearly all the extra demand for property to rent was from economic migrants or student rental with the government push for a degree for everybody that could sign their name and date the top of an examination paper.

Yes and now you need an NVQ to get a minimum wage job in the care industry. So what is left? Will the guys collecting the bins need an NVQ with an entire module devoted to 'putting bins back where you found them'?

Education in this country is a steaming pile of dog poo and mirrors (for the dogs to watch their arses as they crap)

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Can anybody give a coherent reason why rents, and so rabbit hutch prices, would stabilise any higher than this?

Hmm, I actually think they'll stabilise fairly rapidly. The way I see it, there are a good few "traditional" landlords out there, along with (though it pains me to say it) some decidedly canny BLTers, who've got very low LTVs, haven't bought recently, have chosen their properties well, and (most importantly) are in it, and always have been in it, and can stay in it, for the rental yield. These guys can and will survive, and can afford to do so by chopping rents.

The stabilising factor will come from the capital-gains quick-buck brigade, not because they'll be able to maintain high rents on their properties, but because if we do see a continued decline in rental demand, they're going to be forced out fairly quickly as they'll be utterly unable to compete with the better organised, lower geared, calculator owning types.

In short, I think the supply of rental property will contract quite rapidly in line with the demand for it, simply because "just leave it sitting there, eating money, and losing value" is a total non-runner for a good few landlords.

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Most of the eastern Europeans are going back; they have much better job opportunities than a few years ago and the exchange rates mean its not so good sending money home now.

In fact two agents have warned me against accepting any eastern Europeans now as they are upping and going mid tenancy – there’s no hope of getting unpaid rent so they’re simply advising not taking them on at all.

Thought this comment was interesting. If it's a common view, then the E. Europeans who want to stay here will find it much harder to find a flat, fuelling a further exodus.

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Thought this comment was interesting. If it's a common view, then the E. Europeans who want to stay here will find it much harder to find a flat, fuelling a further exodus.

Complete rubbish. They are seen as excellent tenants. Pay their rent on time. Respect the property. Work hard and are grateful to be here (or were!) They will be missed by landlords who will have to go back to renting to the ungrateful indiginies.

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I can't understand how anyone can be bothered with all this BTL malarky...the tenant you sign up to is more luck than judgement..there must be easier ways to make money. ;)

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Yes and now you need an NVQ to get a minimum wage job in the care industry. So what is left? Will the guys collecting the bins need an NVQ with an entire module devoted to 'putting bins back where you found them'?

Education in this country is a steaming pile of dog poo and mirrors (for the dogs to watch their arses as they crap)

I agree, no one seems to want to go out and work after finishing school. When I was university at least a third of people there didn't care at all about what they were studying for, they just wanted to loaf about and not go out to work. A further third just simply weren't bright enough for it, but as others have said you only need to be able to sign your name and write the date and you can pretty much get a third class honours degree.

It annoyed me how much I was having to pay for tuition, and how much debt i needed to acquire to support a system that essentially encourages unsuitable people into university level education, when they could be training for useful jobs.

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I keep an eye on the number of rentals on Rightmove for Bath. Just lately I have seen the numbers rising sharply. There are now over 300 adverts for rental properties on Bath. That's alot for a small city like Bath.

People will just stay at home for longer.

Also, there is still that 800,000 or empty properties across the country. Housing shortage my ****.

BTL is a broken business model.

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I keep an eye on the number of rentals on Rightmove for Bath. Just lately I have seen the numbers rising sharply. There are now over 300 adverts for rental properties on Bath. That's alot for a small city like Bath.

People will just stay at home for longer.

Also, there is still that 800,000 or empty properties across the country. Housing shortage my ****.

BTL is a broken business model.

But a lot of people haven't worked it out yet. There has never been a housing shortage if they had actually used the legislation available to them to ensure that there were no empty homes.

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Immigrants have always been ripped off with low wages and expensive poor quality accomodation but in the old days it was worse back home so they stayed long term and mostly did very well for themselves in the end.

Now they come here and as soon as they can raise the money they go back home because there is no Hitler or Communist dictator to worry about and the standard of living is not much better here with little prospect of improvement.

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Having read this, it confirms my suspicions. I have been living in London for the past 5 years, moving on average about once a year (usually so I can walk to work).

Looking to move at the moment, the majority of properties listed are 'available now'. This has never been the case before. Also tellingly, there are many properties that have been available for weeks - which can be seen when browsing ads on gumtree.com if the poster has not amended the 'available field'.

This is for previously 'hot' inner London locations as well.

My partner and I have been questioning agents as to why this is now the case though we've yet to get a straight answer from any of them.

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Guest Shedfish
Have never read singing pig forums before... had a quick look at the "under-25's" forum to see what my wealthy counterparts are up to.

I gotta say, they're really flat-out bloody stupid, still flocking to acquire large BTL portfolios, egged on by the regulars who want to sell them theirs. :lol:

that might even be why they've been given their own section

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I can't understand how anyone can be bothered with all this BTL malarky...the tenant you sign up to is more luck than judgement..there must be easier ways to make money. ;)

Freinds of mine that have been in the BTL business sold up a few years ago. Reason- can get a reasonable yield in a good deposit account without the hassle.

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Guest Shedfish
Freinds of mine that have been in the BTL business sold up a few years ago. Reason- can get a reasonable yield in a good deposit account without the hassle.

http://www.elitepropertyuk.com/

look at the 'deal of the week' - now there's a yield!

is that Bradford, or Bingley in the main pic

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http://www.elitepropertyuk.com/

look at the 'deal of the week' - now there's a yield!

is that Bradford, or Bingley in the main pic

Reading a little further into the bumph, they seem to suggest that past levels of performance in property will continue and that anyone who predicts a downturn is mistaken.

Lambs to the slaughter.

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In short, I think the supply of rental property will contract quite rapidly in line with the demand for it, simply because "just leave it sitting there, eating money, and losing value" is a total non-runner for a good few landlords.

Err, contract how exactly? It isn't as if flats wear out in the manner of say shoes.

The flats can either be rented out or sold (or possibly burnt in fraudulent insurance claims), and there ain't nobody buying at the moment.

What's more, there is a good twelve months of new stuff, started before the credit crunch began, still to arrive on the market.

As I said before, FTBs aren't going to come back into the market until house prices and rents both stop falling. If the buyers are other landlords then rents will keep going down.

The rental market doesn't have a bottom, which means the house price market doesn't have a bottom.

Edited by kagiso

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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