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From Bbc: Un-effin-believable

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This article on the beeb. It's today too.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7513563.stm

1. HOUSE PRICES ARE UP

Believe it or not, they're still going up in places and still higher than a year ago almost everywhere. It was roundly ignored last week in favour of more gloomy surveys but, according to the house price index compiled by the Department of Communities and Local Government, using data on all completed sales (and so more comprehensive than the partial surveys by the Halifax and Nationwide), in most areas house prices are still up on a year ago. Only in Northern Ireland do they show a fall. In London, the annual rate of house price rises actually went up - from 7.5% in April to 7.8% in May.

2. EMPLOYMENT RATE IS HIGH

Despite the evident woes of the building trade, more of those who want jobs have had them in the first half of this year than at any time since Harold Wilson was prime minister. Incredible, but true. The employment rate for the working-age population is about 75%, the highest rate in our recent history - and one of the highest in the OECD. Unemployment has taken a so-far small turn in the wrong direction only in the very latest figures (and will probably continue that way) but, on a longer perspective, it's not since Tom Baker was Dr Who that jobs were as plentiful as for most of 2008.

3. INFLATION HAS FALLEN

The Retail Price Index - the old way of measuring prices before the government changed things to produce a lower rate, known as the Consumer Price Index - has actually fallen from where it was just over a year ago.

And since the RPI, unlike the CPI, takes account of mortgage interest payments and the level of house prices, there will be downward pressure on this index as last year's interest rate increases drop out of the calculation and we see the effect of slowing house price inflation. This will help counteract rising energy and food costs. Although these are going up fast, clothing and footwear costs have been plummeting with heavy discounting. Alcohol has also been falling in price. So even if you're still unimpressed, at least drinking away your sorrows has seldom been cheaper.

4. LOWER EARNINGS ARE GOOD

Bestruck by gloom? No, Mervyn King's just shading his eyes from the sun at Wimbledon

Swallow hard (see 3 above), but squeezed incomes are good - for now. How come? The rising oil price has made us poorer. The Bank of England Governor Mervyn King's big fear is that we will all try to compensate with higher pay, and this will feed into even higher prices and an inflationary spiral, forcing him to raise interest rates.

So data this week showing that income growth is down a smidgen - from 3.9% a year in April to 3.8% in May - will have Mervyn sighing with relief. Yes, it means we all face a lower standard of living as prices outstrip earnings. But if we bite that bullet rather than trying to match inflation, inflation will soon plummet and recovery will be quicker. If we try to avoid the pain, the Governor will feel no choice but to make us pay, perhaps more heavily in the end. A little medicine now, or a lot later? That's right, even bad news on pay could be good news really.

5. WE'RE LIVING LONGER

Feeling better? No? Then finally, if the economy still depresses you, try this: living longer, working longer, and staying healthy longer all go hand in hand according to data this week from massive and continuing research known as ELSA (The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing). And more of us are doing all three. The study confirms previous evidence from National Statistics that we are, men in particular, putting on extra lifespan faster than ever before, becoming more prosperous in older age than previous generations, and staying healthy with it.

Though you have to ask, if life is as miserable as they say, who wants more?

As Noel Coward put it:

"We're going to unpack our troubles from our old kit bag

And wait until we drop down dead."

Alas, now even that takes longer.

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Guest KingCharles1st

I think the pain of reading that shite would be easier to express by getting a large overcoat, strapping on loads of High explosive, and suicide bomber-ing up yourself by running live onto Declan's Monday morning 8am BBC slot, embracing him while pulling the pin....

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I think the pain of reading that shite would be easier to express by getting a large overcoat, strapping on loads of High explosive, and suicide bomber-ing up yourself by running live onto Declan's Monday morning 8am BBC slot, embracing him while pulling the pin....

Sad news i'm afraid, Declan is soon to move to working lunch and I think that annoying Aussie guy is taking his place.

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It's just a different opinion, what's wrong with that? :huh:

We should all go and throw rocks at the BBC

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This article on the beeb. It's today too.

Yeah i made a comment which almost certainly won't get published. Cretinous commentary from a spotty faced muppet whose job and pension are protected as long as they lick the government's @rse

:angry: :angry:

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Building societies are lying!

Reductions on Property Bee revealed to be fabricated!

The Bank of England put out the awful inflation figures as a joke!

Northern Rock open for sub-prime business again!

Builders' share prices revealed to have a zero missing from the end!

Hammer large pieces of crooked wood over the doors - the crash has been cancelled!

:lol:

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We have just been discussing this in the office. Would I be correct in thinking that the YOY that the DCLG statistics refer to is roughly beginning of 2007 to end of 2007 (assuming 3 months from offer to completion plus 3 months from completion to actually registering with the Land Registry)?

Peter.

Edit for spppelin

Edited by Blue Peter

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3. & 4.

@The Retail Price Index - the old way of measuring prices before the government changed things to produce a lower rate, known as the Consumer Price Index - has actually fallen from where it was just over a year ago. @

RPI all items was

CZBH All items Percentage change over 12 months

2007 May 4.3

2007 Jun 4.4

2008 May 4.3

2008 Jun 4.6

The others are

CHAW All items Index: January 13 1987=100

CZBH All items Percentage change over 12 months

CHMK All items excluding mortgage interest payments Index: January 13 1987=100

CDKQ All items excluding mortgage interest payments Percentage change over 12 months

CBZW All items excluding mortgage interest payments and indirect taxes Index: January 13 1987=100

CBZX All items excluding mortgage interest payments and indirect taxes Percentage change over 12 months

CHAZ All items excluding housing Index: January 13 1987=100

CZBI All items excluding housing Percentage change over 12 months

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/tsdt...1.asp?vlnk=mm23

So that is wrong

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and in what way would that help?

You really don't get it do you....

it is not the fact that it is a different opinion, it is the fact that it is a blatant mis-representation of the current situation... and on top of that it is being put out by the state funded media, paid for by our taxes... It is exactly this type of misrepresentation that has contributed so greatly to the problems we now face... who are the BBC working for? the tax payer or the Banks/Pwoperdie developers? :angry:

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You really don't get it do you....

it is not the fact that it is a different opinion, it is the fact that it is a blatant mis-representation of the current situation... and on top of that it is being put out by the state funded media, paid for by our taxes... It is exactly this type of misrepresentation that has contributed so greatly to the problems we now face... who are the BBC working for? the tax payer or the Banks/Pwoperdie developers? :angry:

I do get it and was being provocative a little. I agree that the article is not very balanced.

However, I read this pages (the forum I mean) a bit and I find that balance is not always present in the comments posted. This is not a criticism to anyone just an observation that being excessively unilateral in opinions never really helps.

Not sure I am making much sense. I mean, the IMF report yesterday was totally rubbushed also on these pages. That is not right either, would you agree?

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This is my reply that won't get posted:

Item 1 is straw-clutchingly painful to read. Anyone who has half an ounce of sense knows that house prices aren't rising, they are falling and falling fast. The DCLG figures are a lagging index by about 6 months ago, whereas all the other important indicators are savagely down.

It is ironic that authors of a book about misrepresentation of statistics are doing exactly that.

How does it go? "If you want to make a cherry pie, you have to pick cherries"

Ironic is not the half of it.

Here is a link to the authors' book

Here is a comment about the book on amazon:

An excellent book. Not dull and boring maths but is full of interesting examples of how numbers (statistics, averages, risks, etc.) can be made to look important or frightening by politicians and journalists that, in fact, aren't. The authors give some simple guidelines as to how to think about the flood of numbers that hit us every day in the media to see if they make sense and thus whether or not we should be as concerned or as comforted as we are told that we should be.

Oh dear oh dear oh dear.

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So, one survey says house prices are up, but on the HPC homepage all indexes are down from their peak. Really research on the BBCs part there.

They reported the other indices too - but that was days ago, old news long forgotten.

You need to understand - they're media, 95% of the media doesn't bother with research.

A PR lady taught me this a decade ago. You work like this.

1. You write up something and call it a report.

2. In the executive summary you say its the govts fault (even in the facts in the body of the report say different)

3. You put the stuff the media want to write about (i.e. its the govts fault) into the press release about the report

4. They print it (without bothering to read your report!)

AND

5. A few days later a govt PR dept quotes your report saying it wasn't thier fault. (The civil servants do read your report.)

Two lots of press for the one report, great value.

With the slight change of being a little more honest I've used this to get good PR on a report for the last decade. Got to the stage we refused to give interviews to TV, radio, or local press. We only wanted broadsheet press.

Once you've seen that you get cynical. I don't get excited when I hear Today discussing a 'report'. I know that if I go and read the report and take time to understand the background the odds are I'll spot the same trick has happened. So if the topic is important to me I do background reading. Simply reading the report means I've done more research than the media.

Media nedes to fill their time/pages. They ask do we have a full interesting programme. They don't ask is it news, or if its accurate. You only need a report that is topical, perhaps with a different slant. Which explains why an upbeat house price story is good stuff in media terms today. Its different. Even better they get another "new" story tomorrow about prices crashing.

Edited by Jadoube

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How convenient that the RPI has fallen, all the better for lower returns for NS&I Index-Linked accounts....

You couldn't make it up.

Or have they?

It's all becoming clearer...

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- The article comes under the 'Magazine' section. Yes - thats right - the gossip section full of pointless 'entertainment' articles.

- The beginning of the article even states that it's a counterweight to all the 'end of the woooooorld' articles we're seeing everywhere else.

- They said they 'challenged' statisticians to spin the bad news into good - basically admitting they're using stats to tell the story they want.

- Look at the writing style: "With more bad news on the economy this week, is there no comfort, no end to pessimism? Yes!" - Clearly not a 'serious' attempt at journalism.

If anyone, after noting all the above, took anything within that column seriously, then they should probably be banned from the internet for their safety and that of those around them.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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