Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Realistbear

Oil Drops $17 -- Anyone Notice Drop At The Pumps?

Recommended Posts

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080718/oil_prices.html

AP
Oil rises above $130 a barrel in Asia
Friday July 18, 3:10 am ET
By Alex Kennedy, Associated Press Writer
Oil rises above $130 a barrel in Asia on Nigeria news after 3 days of steep losses

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/18072008/140/heat-...ce-warning.html

Friday July 18, 07:30 AM
Heat Is On: Gas Price Warning
By Sky News
| | |
Gas prices could rise by almost 70%, with the average bill hitting £1,000 a year, it is being warned.

Can't say that I have seen any drops around here and $17 less a barrell is quite large in % terms. At least house prices are dropping like stones to offset everything else that is not contributing to Gordon's CPI very much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree that the price at the pumps seems to go up quite shortly after oil price rises and slow to drop but give them a chance. The fuel at the pumps was refined weeks ago and with a lot of hoildays starting this w/e, demand is high.

A bit of 'keeping prices up' at the pumps will be common for a few weeks. There are swings of 6p a litre in some stations less than 1 mile apart round here.

Its usually the supermarkets that lead the competition in fuel prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I always thought having a nice warm house through the winter was a luxary that would not last, can't say I look forward to the days of leaving the comfort of the heated living room to make my way to a cold bathroom and cold bedroom...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I always thought having a nice warm house through the winter was a luxary that would not last, can't say I look forward to the days of leaving the comfort of the heated living room to make my way to a cold bathroom and cold bedroom...

You probably live in a poorly built, poorly insulated and poorly heated property although that is probably not your fault.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I currently live in a six year old slave box which to be fair is cheap to heat, I was harking back to my childhood in a 1920's Semi with money saving parents in the 1970's.

I've been traveling to Austria for many years and their building standards put us to shame, when they build a house, they seriously build a house for life, large with a large cellar, utility room, hobby room, large bedrooms, wood burning efficient stove, underfloor gas powered heating, concrete frame and floors with airbrick, 5 inches of exterior insulation, solar panels and computer controlled venting systems...

You probably live in a poorly built, poorly insulated and poorly heated property although that is probably not your fault.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There have definately been reductions round this way. Diesel and Petrol were up to abround 135p and 118p a couple of weeks ago, now I'm seeing about 130 and 115, or thereabouts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
$40 a barrel soon. Now THAT's brave.

Probably a VI with a Hummer ;)

Speaking of which - aren't the swines now speculating on refined fuel futures and driving those up separately from the crude price? :angry:

Edited by lethal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apparently there is a lag between futures price and pump price of around 6 weeks.

So the $145/$147 a barrel should be hitting soon - If the drop holds then that should work through late August. Maybe Gordon can have his 2p's worth again.

I'm keeping my WTIC shorts on for the time-being.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I gotta hand it to you RB, your ~$140 peak oil prediction is looking reasonably accurate at the moment.

Now, for purely selfish reasons, I'm also hoping your sterling v. dollar prediction will hold up. ;)

Edited by DementedTuna

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I gotta hand it to you RB, your ~$140 peak oil prediction is looking reasonably accurate at the moment.

Now, for purely selfish reasons, I'm also hoping your sterling v. dollar prediction will hold up. ;)

GAS and oil are price-linked, are they not?

Most pumps I use are 120p a litre for petrol/gasoline. Occasionally get lucky at 118p.

As for oil prices by the barrel, if it's indeed speculator driven then sometimes they all panic when the price drops enough and they take profits and drive the price down even lower - until new optimistic speculators come in. But if the take profits brigade outnumber the new speculators then the bubble bursts and down it'll go. Lots of ifs though, I haven't a clue how it'll pan out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gas lags oil price, according to last night's Channel 4 news.

Also gas prices may uncouple from oil as more countries are building LNG gas terminals but are being outbid on the price so the ships don't come and visit (this has been going on a lot in the UK and Australia).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even Cramer is saying it's over (for now):

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25722926

Strange. Last week he said there's only been 1% demand destruction in the states, so oil has much further to go.

Personally, I don't think the world can run on $150 oil at the moment. But give it a year or two of changed habits...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I currently live in a six year old slave box which to be fair is cheap to heat, I was harking back to my childhood in a 1920's Semi with money saving parents in the 1970's.

I've been traveling to Austria for many years and their building standards put us to shame, when they build a house, they seriously build a house for life, large with a large cellar, utility room, hobby room, large bedrooms, wood burning efficient stove, underfloor gas powered heating, concrete frame and floors with airbrick, 5 inches of exterior insulation, solar panels and computer controlled venting systems...

Chickens coming home to roost.

In the Uk we are applying building standards that the Germans and Scandinavians were applying in the 1970's

Thats what happens when your MP's are all sitting in the back pocket of the 'Cost Minimised' British Construction Industry

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Probably a VI with a Hummer ;)

Speaking of which - aren't the swines now speculating on refined fuel futures and driving those up separately from the crude price? :angry:

Diesel has rocketed - partly driven by increasing demand in the 3rd world as diesel is the preferred fuel for standby generators.

Something like 30% of countries now face regular electricity shortages. If you are a factory - you need backup to keep running even if it costs an arm and a leg.

Wellandpower might provide some inside as I believe he works for a big supplier of stationary gensets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've been traveling to Austria for many years and their building standards put us to shame, when they build a house, they seriously build a house for life, large with a large cellar, utility room, hobby room, large bedrooms, wood burning efficient stove, underfloor gas powered heating, concrete frame and floors with airbrick, 5 inches of exterior insulation, solar panels and computer controlled venting systems...

Without criticising the wonderful Austrian and German housing stock I think you can get the energy efficiency much more cheaply. I'm told by an American insultation specialist that a timber clad building (aka shed) can be made virtually self heating with a good layer of injected foam insulaiton - say 20-30cm. With modern rot inhibitors these kind of structures could be quite long lasting (in Boston you see wood houses which are over 100 yrs old)

Cellars are good though - why not a concrete base with cellar/garage and timber house on top clear of the ground?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Without criticising the wonderful Austrian and German housing stock I think you can get the energy efficiency much more cheaply. I'm told by an American insultation specialist that a timber clad building (aka shed) can be made virtually self heating with a good layer of injected foam insulaiton - say 20-30cm. With modern rot inhibitors these kind of structures could be quite long lasting (in Boston you see wood houses which are over 100 yrs old)

Cellars are good though - why not a concrete base with cellar/garage and timber house on top clear of the ground?

You can have a timber frame with 6-9 inches of insulation and an outerbrick skin. Alternatively put 4-6 inches between inner blocks and outer bricks.

Triple glazing not a major cost over double once production levels up.

An extra 200mm of loft insulation - £200 tops

Its not a major cost issue - its down to:

THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

He says in Eric Pebble Mode :lol:

Edited by Kurt Barlow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Petrol hasn't really gone up lately. Here, diesel was 129p a litre when oil was $120, and 134p when it was $147, so I'm not sure $130 does much. Takes us back to 132p assuming no lag.

That said, I'm not seeing much inflation so far this month, so MoM CPI for July will be interesting. In August, we're expecting the hit from energy bills, but in the meantime, the clothes shops all have sales on, food prices are high but stable, so, dunno...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

%70 of the price of petrol is taxes, so a %15 drop in the price of oil isn't likely to have all that much effect on the price at the pump.

even if the total decline in oil prices was translated into price declines at your local station, you are only looking at a 4-5 p drop at most.

there is that much difference in the range in prices just between the different stations, you might not even notice it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Without criticising the wonderful Austrian and German housing stock I think you can get the energy efficiency much more cheaply. I'm told by an American insultation specialist that a timber clad building (aka shed) can be made virtually self heating with a good layer of injected foam insulaiton - say 20-30cm. With modern rot inhibitors these kind of structures could be quite long lasting (in Boston you see wood houses which are over 100 yrs old)

I think I've mentioned before that our house warms up on sunny days in the winter when the temperature is 20C inside and -10C outside. Wooden walls with insulation seem to work very well for maintaining heat, even if they may not last as long as brick walls do in British weather (I'm told that brick houses don't last long here due to the expansion/contraction cycle of the cold winters and warm summers).

The downside is that the house also stays warm in the summer, so the money you save on gas in the winter you probably spend on air conditioning in the summer; unless you're cheapskates like us and go down to the basement or sit in the garden if the rest of the house gets too hot :).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.