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Kurt Barlow

Centrica Report - Gas Prices To Rise 70%

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I think that unless there is some extensive subsidy offered to those at the bottom end of the social scale - and according to the report that could be as much as a third of the population, then we are heading for riots in the streets.

Greater energy efficency is a good thing in principle, because energy is obtained from finite resources, but the scale of change is going to be too rapid to allow people to adapt without too much pain.

And these rises are going to occur against a background of rising unemployment and falling real wages.

I don't think that Brown and the people around him are imaginative enough to come up with a practical solution, but neither is Cameron and his crowd.

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It was mentioned that only a recession can correct gas prices.

Why?

Demand destruction - primarily in the industrial sector. Gas is not only a heating fuel its used extensively for electrical generation, fertilisers, chemicals, plastics etc etc

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It was mentioned that only a recession can correct gas prices.

Why?

Presumably because there will be less demand for energy if factories and offices are closing, and consumers have less money to spend.

I suppose that in theory you can have demand destruction without a recession if people can be persuaded to conserve energy, but they haven't done that over the last 20 years, and in any case, the point is moot. We are in a recession.

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I think that unless there is some extensive subsidy offered to those at the bottom end of the social scale - and according to the report that could be as much as a third of the population, then we are heading for riots in the streets.

Greater energy efficency is a good thing in principle, because energy is obtained from finite resources, but the scale of change is going to be too rapid to allow people to adapt without too much pain.

And these rises are going to occur against a background of rising unemployment and falling real wages.

I don't think that Brown and the people around him are imaginative enough to come up with a practical solution, but neither is Cameron and his crowd.

I already have a 20 tube solar panel - Im seriously thinking about adding another 20 tubes. You can pick up 20 tube panels for £350. Pay for iteself pretty quickly if 70% price increase on the cards

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And what if the UK goes into recession, but the rest of the world doesn't?

Prices and demand would remain high, but the UK would be unable to keep up.

A worst case scenario perhaps?

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I think that unless there is some extensive subsidy offered to those at the bottom end of the social scale - and according to the report that could be as much as a third of the population, then we are heading for riots in the streets.

Greater energy efficency is a good thing in principle, because energy is obtained from finite resources, but the scale of change is going to be too rapid to allow people to adapt without too much pain.

And these rises are going to occur against a background of rising unemployment and falling real wages.

I don't think that Brown and the people around him are imaginative enough to come up with a practical solution, but neither is Cameron and his crowd.

Bad isn't it - most the solutions to this problem are low tech.

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And what if the UK goes into recession, but the rest of the world doesn't?

Prices and demand would remain high, but the UK would be unable to keep up.

A worst case scenario perhaps?

The world is going into recession no doubt.

However oil and gas production has been fairly static too. Indeed falls in production are predicted.

I have heard it said before here and elsewhere

Every petroleum engineer / geologist they know has invested in a wood stove in the last few years

Mind you once the gas goes up so will wood :ph34r:

Edited by Kurt Barlow

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My parents are pensioners and only heat the room they are in as it is. I bought them all night electric blankets recently in the hope that at least they wouldn't freeze in bed.

If others don't have family to help then things could get very tricky for the old.

I know a few of my mums' mates that go out 'shopping' at indoor shopping centres all day in the winter, they don't buy anything, it's just to keep warm and dry.

Maybe the days of central heating are over, will we go back to the one room being heated? This would have a few odd effects as families would have to interact with each other more, teens not in bedrooms being mindmelted by the playstation.

Edit - missing ?

Edited by eightiesgirly

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My parents are pensioners and only heat the room they are in as it is. I bought them all night electric blankets recently in the hope that at least they wouldn't freeze in bed.

If others don't have family to help then things could get very tricky for the old.

I know a few of my mums' mates that go out 'shopping' at indoor shopping centres all day in the winter, they don't buy anything, it's just to keep warm and dry.

Maybe the days of central heating are over, will we go back to the one room being heated? This would have a few odd effects as families would have to interact with each other more, teens not in bedrooms being mindmelted by the playstation.

Edit - missing ?

I suspect in the coming years you will see households growing - elderly parents living with children to capture some of that diminished retirement income, letting of rooms.

Bro in law on the couch syndrome - Oildrum favourite

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Bad isn't it - most the solutions to this problem are low tech.

I agree but once you say that to anybody you tend to give the impresssion of being some kind of Earth goddess worshipping new ager divorced from the "reality" of modern consumer society.

I think it's going to be real challenge to bring what seem now to be utopian solutions (low tech, low energy, conservationist) into the main stream.

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Maybe the days of central heating are over, will we go back to the one room being heated? This would have a few odd effects as families would have to interact with each other more, teens not in bedrooms being mindmelted by the playstation.

The thought of winter without central heating is horrendous, but must it be as bad as it was in the 1960s & 1970s when I was growing up? After all, we have loft insulation and double glazing nowadays.

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I agree but once you say that to anybody you tend to give the impresssion of being some kind of Earth goddess worshipping new ager divorced from the "reality" of modern consumer society.

I think it's going to be real challenge to bring what seem now to be utopian solutions (low tech, low energy, conservationist) into the main stream.

I always add on the end :

I live in a 4 bed detatched - the combined gas and electric is £49 a month

And thats reality :P

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The thought of winter without central heating is horrendous, but must it be as bad as it was in the 1960s & 1970s when I was growing up? After all, we have loft insulation and double glazing nowadays.

Not really i did a test last winter, no central heating, just hot water it was fine. Your body will get used too it after a few months, adjust to the cold.

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The thought of winter without central heating is horrendous, but must it be as bad as it was in the 1960s & 1970s when I was growing up? After all, we have loft insulation and double glazing nowadays.

As an experiement tried it in my house last winter for 3 days and it is not pleasant.

Turned off gas and electric friday morning and went to work.

Relied on a meths stove, oil lamp, candles and electric lantern until Monday night.

Now I have CWI, 500mm loft insulation, double glazing and the internal temperature dropped to 13 degrees by Monday morning. Washing was a nightmare - heating enough water to have a decent wash as shower out of the question.

I am now thinking of investing in 400w of PV and a few deep cycle batteries so that the solar water heating can keep going. I can also use some of the power to keep 1 fridge going in an emergency (turn to lowest consumption setting and wrap in spare duvets)

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The thought of winter without central heating is horrendous, but must it be as bad as it was in the 1960s & 1970s when I was growing up? After all, we have loft insulation and double glazing nowadays.

No I don't think it will be as bad, we do have better technology. However we have lived so very high on the hog these last few decades I think it may seem worse.

As Mr Barlow very astutely pointed out to me once though, how many people have invested in better technology during the good financial years? How much harder will it be to obtain solar, loft insulation, wood burners and other things you can do at the same time as paying high fuel bills?

Edited by eightiesgirly

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No I don't think it will be as bad, we do have better technology. However we have lived so very high on the hog these last few decades I think it may seem worse.

As Mr Barlow very astutely pointed out to me once though, how many people have invested in better technology during the good financial years? How much harder will it be to obtain solar, loft insulation, wood burners and other things you can do at the same time as paying high fuel bills?

In times of peace prepare for war!

Sir Jackie Fisher - Admiral of the Fleet - 1905

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As an experiement tried it in my house last winter for 3 days and it is not pleasant.

Turned off gas and electric friday morning and went to work.

Relied on a meths stove, oil lamp, candles and electric lantern until Monday night.

Now I have CWI, 500mm loft insulation, double glazing and the internal temperature dropped to 13 degrees by Monday morning. Washing was a nightmare - heating enough water to have a decent wash as shower out of the question.

I am now thinking of investing in 400w of PV and a few deep cycle batteries so that the solar water heating can keep going. I can also use some of the power to keep 1 fridge going in an emergency (turn to lowest consumption setting and wrap in spare duvets)

My wife has been diabetic since childhood. If her blood sugar goes low, then she becomes warm (I don't know why!). But this is really handy if it's a cold winter night. Time to cut back on the food, I think. :unsure:

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In times of peace prepare for war!

Sir Jackie Fisher - Admiral of the Fleet - 1905

Last year the central heating broke down in the coldest week of the year, typical!. My kids thought that the angel of death had arrived. Yes, they would think it was war :lol:

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I am now thinking of investing in 400w of PV and a few deep cycle batteries so that the solar water heating can keep going. I can also use some of the power to keep 1 fridge going in an emergency (turn to lowest consumption setting and wrap in spare duvets)

Cold winter + no power = you can nominate any room you like for a fridge :lol:

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Guest Steve Cook
70% rise in energy prices wow it will kill the economy, food stuffs will rise around 40%.

yes

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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