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Lucky Spain

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Lucky Spain. The bankruptcy of the giant Spanish property developer Martinsa-Fadesa, will release a £4bn flood of apartments, building land, hotels, and commercial properties onto the market. Consequently the Spanish property market will be able to re-calibrate itself very quickly. Without endless political tinkering and sticking plaster non-solutions, they'll find bottom faster than us, and will be able to start making progress again sooner than us.

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They have a lot further to go than prices do here... House prices need to fall about 80% in real terms from their highs to be cheap again.

Exactly, it's all about affordability and when it comes to Spain we need to look at what an average Spanish worker can afford, not what the Brits will pay as they are not a big enough influence on the Spanish market. New Zealand will also be interesting – they need at least a 60% drop before any form of affordability returns.

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They need to clean their act up as well. Otherwise foreign investor confidence will never come back.

The act cleaning process began some time ago with Operación Malaya. I think that will take a very long time before confidence of any sort returns to Spanish real estate thoguh, and foreign investor confidence is not that big a deal right now in comparison...

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Spain is ahead in many ways. I worked on the Costa del Sol in real estate for 5 years until July 06 and as of now ALL the the estate agents of any note have either ceased trading altogether or downsized to a table in a local bar.

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Exactly, it's all about affordability and when it comes to Spain we need to look at what an average Spanish worker can afford, not what the Brits will pay as they are not a big enough influence on the Spanish market.

The Brits can afford about 50p in the current climate.

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as of now ALL the estate agents of any note have either ceased trading altogether or downsized to a table in a local bar.

The Brit equivalent of that could be a suggestion thread all of its own :)

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Exactly, it's all about affordability and when it comes to Spain we need to look at what an average Spanish worker can afford, not what the Brits will pay as they are not a big enough influence on the Spanish market. New Zealand will also be interesting – they need at least a 60% drop before any form of affordability returns.

Brits are not the only overseas buyers in Spain. You're forgetting all the buyers from the many other north European countries where the sun rarely shines, e.g. Denmark, Germany, Norway etc. They account for a sizeable chunk of the Costa property market. Not sure whether HPC has reached Scandinavia?

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IIRC the average Spanish (hosehold?) income is about £16,500 so an average home price of about £50,000 may seem reasonable.

There is plenty of property for sale at less than £50k .

Brits are not the only overseas buyers in Spain. You're forgetting all the buyers from the many other north European countries where the sun rarely shines, e.g. Denmark, Germany, Norway etc. They account for a sizeable chunk of the Costa property market. Not sure whether HPC has reached Scandinavia?

Like the 70's the new customers with the readies. ;)

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Spain is ahead in many ways. I worked on the Costa del Sol in real estate for 5 years until July 06 and as of now ALL the the estate agents of any note have either ceased trading altogether or downsized to a table in a local bar.

Scratch cards outside the bars? ;)

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Where is the sub 50k property?

The last time I checked we were still looking at €100k floor.

Spanish median household income will be closer to 13k I'd say. 43% of workers earn less than €1000 a month. Many people borrowed 15xsalary over 40-50 years at the top of the boom, and the properties are in a terrible state in many cases.

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Where is the sub 50k property?

The last time I checked we were still looking at €100k floor.

Spanish median household income will be closer to 13k I'd say. 43% of workers earn less than €1000 a month. Many people borrowed 15xsalary over 40-50 years at the top of the boom, and the properties are in a terrible state in many cases.

One link, one of many...but not everyones cup of tea, depends how much you want to 'get away from it all'. ;)

http://www.kyero.com/browse/cheap-andaluci...gn55531slt0srt4

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I think you have to realise that investors entered the Spanish market between 2002 and 2005. Before this point, and after, the buyers of coastal property were, and are primarily, retired North Europeans. This demographic are historically cash rich and don't need mortgages and frankly unaffected in any major way by the house price crash. There numbers are also ever increasing.

The ripple effect meant that property close to these coastal areas and near to major cities (Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla) increased in value but don't be fooled unlike England as soon as you go out of these regions property in Spain is still extremely cheap. You can buy 3 Bedroom houses for £65000 and apartments for £40000.

Just like the UK, developers in Spain became greedy and started building matchbox flats in areas that were once desert for silly prices to investors looking to "flip" for quick bucks. Dont be fooled by this, although these flats and the nightmare town of Torrevieja are destined for armageddon my belief is that Spain is unlikely to head into freefall in coastal or City areas.

I've just spent a good week with my folks who are in their 60's and out of 15 of their friends I would say around 6 or 7 are looking at Spanish Property. They of course need to sell their UK homes first which may take ages but there is no doubt they are all heading for the sunshine as soon as they can. Funnily enough none of them were interested in these stupid golf resorts that are rip offs and miles inland. They are all looking at houses within walking distance of the beach. I imagine with the Summer we have had so far they wont be alone in that desire.

Edited by Einstein71

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With respect Einstein, I don't think you could be more wrong if you were stood outside a junior school with your pants round your ankles.

There is a chronic over supply of flats, even in Barcelona. The problem is they are left empty. Now finance is unavailable for Spaniards, city prices will have to crash. Coastal prices are crashing because of a combination of forced sale and investor panic and nobody can get a mortgage for love nor money.

Salary multiples were ridiculously high, people were taking 50 year mortgages. Nobody is buying.

The Spanish crash will be worse than the British one because of the phenomena of multiple flat ownership, many peoèple have 3 or 4 flats, of which one is used, one under occupied and 1 or 2 empty. With prices falling, there is a panic to liquidate 3 and 4. When jobs are lost 1 and 2 will be repossessed. It's a nightmare.

Winkie: that's impressive, I reckon I'll buy up Ronda some time round 2010.

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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