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AvidFan

The Downturn Cometh. Morgan Stanley Confirms...

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http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.asxx?clip...p;RND=010079767

Basic points are:

1. Earnings visibility much reduced, which will destabilise the markets. Reduction in visibility caused by government intervention such as ongoing fuel subsidies to paint a good picture, particularly in an Olympic year.

2. Stock markets overvalued. Predicts a crash of the Hang Seng by 20-30%, i.e. to around half its peak, matching the Shanghai Composite. Suggests selling into bear market rallies or shorting the market index.

3. China will come out of the downturn - it's not a downshift. Contributions to GDP in the next up cycle will be tourism, service and domestic consumption.

4. Inflation set to go higher despite recent pullback, which is a cyclical anomaly.

Down we go. It's looking more and more like a world recession.

Edited to add point 4 and expand point 2.

Edited by AvidFan

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

I'd like to thank the Chinese for swapping labour and resources for bits of our paper, and for giving back the bits of paper for us to borrow again and swap for labour and resources.

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Yeah, disaster for China. Growth of 10.1% against a target of 8%. They actually want their growth to slow to take the pressure off of prices and currency.

Retail sales rose 23 percent in June from a year earlier, the fastest pace since at least 1999.

"They can keep the economy growing at 10 percent even if there is a sharp slowdown elsewhere in the world,'' said Julian Jessop, an economist with Capital Economics Ltd. in London, citing the government's ability to boost spending.

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Just been to the Brunel graduation day and been stunned by the beauty and intelligence of Chinese girls. How depressing to see the fat, sullen slags that England produces, we have no chance at all.

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Just been to the Brunel graduation day and been stunned by the beauty and intelligence of Chinese girls. How depressing to see the fat, sullen slags that England produces, we have no chance at all.

They don't bite, you should ask one out on a date, you won't regret it.

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Yeah, disaster for China. Growth of 10.1% against a target of 8%. They actually want their growth to slow to take the pressure off of prices and currency.

Retail sales rose 23 percent in June from a year earlier, the fastest pace since at least 1999.

"They can keep the economy growing at 10 percent even if there is a sharp slowdown elsewhere in the world,'' said Julian Jessop, an economist with Capital Economics Ltd. in London, citing the government's ability to boost spending.

Exactly Rettah. People don't seem to realise that when the RMB appreciates meaninfully that per capita spending will increase. The RMB has increased by 20% against the USD. I think it will increase 500% eventually against the USD, which will fuel domestic demand. China is already running current account deficits with some of the Asean countries...showing increasing demand at home..

To quote JP Morgans research this year...

"Exports to the United States fell 5 percent in February to $16.4 billion, while imports of American goods jumped 33 percent to $6.1 billion."

Import growth from the US is faster than export declines to the US. For me this shows the weakening of the US economy,more than the weakenong of the Chinese.

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Er...they do occasionally bite but not necessarily in a bad way.

Thats my experience. Love the Asian girls, especially the Half Thai, half Chinese, from the Chiang Mai area of Thailand or the Bangkok ones-definition of feminity,IMHO.

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Just been to the Brunel graduation day and been stunned by the beauty and intelligence of Chinese girls. How depressing to see the fat, sullen slags that England produces, we have no chance at all.
Britain doesn't have the monopoly on fat sullen slags, China actually has a lot more than we do, and what do you think the burqa was invented for . :P

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Britain doesn't have the monopoly on fat sullen slags, China actually has a lot more than we do, and what do you think the burqa was invented for . :P

Having lived in Thailand and seeing many foreign tourists there with their wife, I always got the impression or they had the look in their eyes, that said, "I 'll not becoming with my wife to here again" :lol:

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http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/05/business...ml?ref=business

HONG KONG — Many Chinese have been expecting a post-Olympics economic slowdown, but it has already started and the Games have not even begun.

Chinese factories reported a plunge in new orders last month. Exports are barely growing. The real estate market is weakening, with apartment prices sinking in southeastern China, the region hardest hit by economic troubles.

The trends, which actually have little to do with the Olympics (the Games themselves, which open Friday, are small compared with the size of the economy), are being felt worldwide.

China’s slowing growth is one reason that gasoline prices have fallen in the United States, for example. Similarly, world prices for metals like copper, tin, zinc and aluminum have tumbled in the last several weeks, as voracious Chinese factories have closed, or cut back their consumption.

But while China’s difficulties may reduce inflationary pressures around the world, they threaten to slow further the already tenuous global economic growth.

“China has slowed down a lot already, but it’s going to slow down more,” said Hong Liang, the senior China economist at Goldman Sachs.

Economists expect growth to slip from its recent pace of 11 percent or more annually to as low as 9 or 9.5 percent over the coming year.

Most nations would envy that rate. But 9 percent growth will make it much harder to supply jobs to the millions of Chinese moving to cities from rural areas in search of work. And any slower growth could prove a shock to workers who have been receiving double-digit pay increases each year, as companies struggle to find enough labor to keep factories open.

Will the property elite in China see a housing crash of their own?

It's not looking good anywhere on the planet at the moment.

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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