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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

dead cat bounce ... or start of the retutn of the bulls....?

To me it looks volatile...

higher- than-estimated profit at Wells Fargo & Co. sparked the biggest- ever gain in financial shares

That would worry me if I were an investor... "biggest ever" anything is not good - it suggests that analysis had been incompetent... it undermines confidence. I'd want steady week-on-week gains - no surprises.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

dead cat bounce ... or start of the retutn of the bulls....?

I have money riding on a dead cat bounce.

Relief that Fannie and Freddie aren't going to be allowed to go bust anytime soon.

But it is just pain postpone.

And when the market realises this it will drop back.

At least that is what I hope/believe.

In fact, looking at FTSE futures (which is what I focus on), it looks like the market may have just about turned south again.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

dead cat bounce ... or start of the retutn of the bulls....?

IMO This bear market (the one that started this year before anyone gets all secular on my ass) will see a lower low. I base this on nothing more than a hunch and erm the fact that average bear markets tend to swipe 35% of an indexes value.

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sometimes the biggest falls follow a short rise - so a 276 rise on the day can easily trigger a seemingly large fall the next day if the rally was unjustified. could be a classic bull trap.

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Its taken a fall of 2000pts in the dow to get anything that resembles a rally. It wouldn't be surprising to see a rally of over 1000pts now really, just to work off some pessimism before it drops again.

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I'm not experienced in these matters but when I see stuff like this happening it occurs to me that there must be an awful lot of absolute suckers out there who will fall for 'market sentiment' and blatant hype.

Am I right? Or is it just a function of the way the market works with traders looking to jump upon bandwagons even if fundamentals clearly don't support them in the long term.....

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I'm not experienced in these matters but when I see stuff like this happening it occurs to me that there must be an awful lot of absolute suckers out there who will fall for 'market sentiment' and blatant hype.

Am I right? Or is it just a function of the way the market works with traders looking to jump upon bandwagons even if fundamentals clearly don't support them in the long term.....

Unless people having been shorting, people have been loosing alot of money lately.

So, they gotta jump at the chance to make some money, any sign of the market rising and it's time to jump on board. You have to make money, that's what it is all about.

The question is, are the gains actually based in real value?

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the fact that average bear markets tend to swipe 35% of an indexes value.

This is no average bear market, it is so bad they have had to manage it since March 07 when reality hit. They pumped it to the all time high to gian it as much ground as possible (While they could pump the bull mentally for all it was worth) then they have been managing it all the way down from August last year. Since Feb 07 big sell off there has not been a single panic day on the DOW with it falling more than 400 points over a whole year of horrific news and future prospect. Every time panic looks about to set it the breaks are applied and it is pumped until the fear is dissipated.

My belief is we would already be sub 8000 had they not been so active, take the last 2 weeks, this looked like the point where the market was about to fall off a cliff and go into crash mode. Given the news of the last year and especially the last 2 weeks it was almost a given. Look at the graph attached and draw your own conclusion for the recent action, I made my mind up a long while ago about how this is being managed but many still talk about support levels and technical analysis. This is a big picture market, not one to get caught up in the details.

Picture1.jpg

post-6129-1216241963_thumb.jpg

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I'm not experienced in these matters but when I see stuff like this happening it occurs to me that there must be an awful lot of absolute suckers out there who will fall for 'market sentiment' and blatant hype.

Am I right? Or is it just a function of the way the market works with traders looking to jump upon bandwagons even if fundamentals clearly don't support them in the long term.....

The trick is to spot the bottom of the market (often when it looks blackest !) and then jump back in with both feet. I remember the falls in the run up to Gulf War part 2 and with hindsight wish that I had the bottle to buy at that low ....

That said, I think it still has a way to go... down.

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I would say its pretty simple. The SEC has said you cannot short the big banks from Monday. Thus people are having to buy their stock to close out thier positions.

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The start of the rally coincided with the sharp falls in commodities. It doesn't look like market participants are really appreciating the consequences and impact of the credit crunch yet, a lot of the recent falls were due to rising oil prices, rising inflation, pressure on interest rates, etc.

If commodities were to keep falling I reckon we could see this rally continuing for a while.

My favourite is the GSE 'bailout'. All these muppets have succeeding in doing is to lower the cost of GSE debt relative to treasuries and corporate debt. Sounds like a productive recovery they are aiming at... not.

Oh, and they managed to confirm to the world they are really out of their depth, not that their job is easy, but still, it takes skill to destroy so much confidence so fast.

Rant over. :)

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If commodities were to keep falling I reckon we could see this rally continuing for a while.

I agree, there will always be rallies in the bear markets with some of them being strong on the back of the changing environment, but where their work is done is limiting the down side and capitalising on the up swings to buy back ground.

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I would say its pretty simple. The SEC has said you cannot short the big banks from Monday. Thus people are having to buy their stock to close out thier positions.

Interesting to see which companies this "Emergency Order" (sounds very serious :lol: ) applies to:

Company Ticker Symbol(s)

BNP Paribas Securities Corp.

BNPQF or BNPQY Bank of America Corporation BAC

Barclays PLC BCS

Citigroup Inc. C Credit Suisse Group CS

Daiwa Securities Group Inc. DSECY

Deutsche Bank Group AG DB Allianz SE AZ

Goldman, Sachs Group Inc GS

Royal Bank ADS RBS

HSBC Holdings PLC ADS HBC and HSI J. P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. LEH

Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. MER

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. MFG

Morgan Stanley MS UBS AG UBS

Freddie Mac FRE

Fannie Mae FNM

Who in their right mind would short HSBC? :huh:

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To me it looks volatile...

That would worry me if I were an investor... "biggest ever" anything is not good - it suggests that analysis had been incompetent... it undermines confidence. I'd want steady week-on-week gains - no surprises.

The charts predicted Wells Fargo would be having good results!!

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sometimes the biggest falls follow a short rise - so a 276 rise on the day can easily trigger a seemingly large fall the next day if the rally was unjustified. could be a classic bull trap.

What data set were you using for your analysis?

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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