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gruffydd

Sanity From The Times...

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"The faster house prices fall, the faster they will reach a bottom and the faster the level of transactions, which is so important for the broader economy, can return to normal. Of course, there are risks of an overshoot and serious collateral damage. But such a short, sharp shock would also help to get inflation back in its box. "

Yes please ;)

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"The faster house prices fall, the faster they will reach a bottom and the faster the level of transactions, which is so important for the broader economy, can return to normal. Of course, there are risks of an overshoot and serious collateral damage. But such a short, sharp shock would also help to get inflation back in its box. "

Yes please ;)

Can someone forward it to the two tw@ts who live down downing street?

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Guest Shedfish
Can someone forward it to the two tw@ts who live down downing street?

if you can cofirm their email address stan&ollie@downingstreet.gov.uk

i'm happy to pass it on

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I have been saying this for months on this site. Can I sue The Times or at least get them to send some super models round my place to make me some bacon, sausage and eggs for tea? Or something like that.

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the sooner the sooner the sooner we can all go to B&Q and buy kitchens, ovens, furniture, cars, clothes, garden sheds, employ building contractors, save for pensions, holidays, toys, treats and train set layouts as big as a spare room.

at the moment they expect all this money to be handed to some slime ball btl investor or property club, spendaholic MEW addict or cynical village nimby protectorate.

the population has said no. enough is enough.

i would rather sit through a meaty recession that for this madness and wealth transfer to continue to go to the most parasitic members of society.

the banks simply bet on the wrong team.

and they should go the way of the dinosaur - because thats what modern banks are. dinosaurs. relics.

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"The faster house prices fall, the faster they will reach a bottom and the faster the level of transactions, which is so important for the broader economy, can return to normal. Of course, there are risks of an overshoot and serious collateral damage. But such a short, sharp shock would also help to get inflation back in its box. "

Yes please ;)

So no banks then?

No pension?

No job?

But at least we'll have the positive of house prices being affordable.

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Maybe this 'leading economist' should have a chat with his colleague:

No house price crash on cards says leading economist.

The bit about FTB`s relying on the `Bank of Mum and Dad ` was interesting - especially where he said it`s accentuating social inequality- seems to be a bit of a theme developing there ...

The first speaker was just giving his public what they wanted to hear though I suspect ...

Edited by Wires 74

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I think this is the first mainstream acknowledgement that it's not a case of the market running out of mortgages, but a case of the market running out of @rseholes willing to sell themselves into debt slavery for the rest of their puffs!

Happy day!

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and they should go the way of the dinosaur - because thats what modern banks are. dinosaurs. relics.

I agree with this one hundred percent. The banks have behaved in a most appalling manner over the last decade in particular.

Edited by tentcity

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Maybe this 'leading economist' should have a chat with his colleague:

No house price crash on cards says leading economist.

"Chartered Institute of Housing"? WTF qualification does one need to have to be a member of that?

The day David Smith of the Times gets bearish is the day I get back into the market. Whichever market.

At least he's consistently deluded, unlike Anatole Kaletsky who seems to flit like a butterfly through the spectrum of opinions.

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"Chartered Institute of Housing"? WTF qualification does one need to have to be a member of that?

Yuck:

The Chartered Institute of Housing (CIH) is the professional body for people involved in housing and communities. We are a registered charity and not-for-profit organisation. We have a diverse and growing membership of over 21,000 people – both in the public and private sectors – living and working in over 20 countries on five continents across the world. We exist to maximise the contribution that housing professionals make to the wellbeing of communities.

In other words it's a gravy train.

Edited by thecrashingisles

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"The faster house prices fall, the faster they will reach a bottom and the faster the level of transactions, which is so important for the broader economy, can return to normal. Of course, there are risks of an overshoot and serious collateral damage. But such a short, sharp shock would also help to get inflation back in its box. "

Yes please ;)

Why would it put inflation back in the box. This inflation is external not internal. A house price crash will lead to economic depression. They pay these guys so much money for writing drivel they really do.

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This is spectacular hypocracy from the Times which until it turned its coat was in the vanguard of property ramping. This is blatant band wagon climbing and no I'm sorry, it's NOT enough that the Times now sees sense. It, and all the other VI papers partly created the boom that it is now saying is due for correction. But, AS EVER, people have VERY SHORT MEMORY SPANS.

VP

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if you can cofirm their email address stan&ollie@downingstreet.gov.uk

i'm happy to pass it on

That is genius...can't believe it's the first time I've seen this analogy as is it's so blindingly obvious. Fat pompous twit who thinks he's the boss, skinny idiot with spikey hair who is has the common sense of peanut. You need to patent it to the cartoon writers!

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Yuck:

In other words it's a gravy train.

And it's an old boys network to boot. You can't climb the ladder in housing without being a member of this particular gravy train. They make their members do the equivalent of a degree to get the most pointless "qualification" going.

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There is increasing evidence that house buyers are now being put off as much by the prospect of falling prices as the lack of mortgage finance.

This to me, is the crucial line in an interesting piece.

I've heard and read a lot of guff recently about how the current situation is due simply to a lack of mortgage lending, anad that as soon as the banks start lending again the housing market will get 'back on track'.

NO!! :o

This totally disregards sentiment, on the part of both prospective first-time buyers and the banks.

Even if mortgage finance became readily available again overnight, (which it won't) potential first time buyers in general are not going to buy in the forseeable future. They've seen prices falling for a year and even the most basic research or enquiry will reveal the probability that they will continue to fall for another few years. Their parents, who seem to have been sufferring from collective amnesia reagarding the housing market, are suddenly regaining their memories about the events of the early 1990's, and advising their kids to wait and save up!

Without first-time buyers, and without BTLers, the market will collapse.

The banks know this too. Even if unlimited funds for mortgage lending became available overnight, (which they won't) the banks wouldn't lend it at high LTV ratios as their security is beign eroded by the day as house values fall. Without high LTV loans there are no first-time buyers. Catch 22.

It's all academic, anyway. There's no bloody money!

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Guest KingCharles1st

This article is a minefield of good calls and bad calls, and the reader's comments are no less confusing- with one guy even saying it is housing volume that drops away in a slump, not prices.. :blink:

I think that with the Times and the Torygraph, there are definitely shades of, the Bowls club members all scoffing at the poor people , while the Pikeychavs are outside nicking their motors and burgling their houses, but in this case they don't realise it's actually the people they look up to that have done, and will in the future, be doing exactly this.

A short sharp correction would be fantastic for certain parts of the population, the less well off, and unfortunately, the very well off. Let's face it No. 10 haven't a fukking clue, and nor do these people who write these stupid columns. In fact I'm starting to wonder why we all meet up here everyday just to confirm these facts.. We could be out there doing some cool scamming of some sort - like- dare I say it- the occupants of 10 & 11 Downing Street.

Edited by KingCharles1st

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I have been saying this for months on this site. Can I sue The Times or at least get them to send some super models round my place to make me some bacon, sausage and eggs for tea? Or something like that.

I've just had a sensational breakfast which I went and made after reading your post, so thanks very much :P

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This is spectacular hypocracy from the Times which until it turned its coat was in the vanguard of property ramping. This is blatant band wagon climbing and no I'm sorry, it's NOT enough that the Times now sees sense. It, and all the other VI papers partly created the boom that it is now saying is due for correction. But, AS EVER, people have VERY SHORT MEMORY SPANS.

VP

Still better to have them inside the tent pissing out, than outside the tent pissing in.

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Guest happy?

I'm surprised at you lot. You all moan about how CPI is fixed because it doesn't include house price inflation. The berk who wrote this article has missed one obvious point - house prices could halve tomorrow - it would make not one jot of different to CPI as it's excluded from the calculation.

Most deflationary pressure in the UK economy for the last ten years or so has been imported from China and India in the form of manufactured goods, both these economies now have runaway inflation and the UK is stuffed to the eyeballs with cheap electrical items in any event.

Poor Mervyn's stuck with rising inflation whether he likes it or not - which would only serve to continue the downward pressure on house prices, add to this that bank lending rates are now completely detached from bank interest rates and the increasing number of mortgage repossession the downturn is well embedded. Autumn will see the next stage of the fall and by Spring 2009 the housing landscape will look very different.

It's perfectly possible that we will this time see a massively accelerated decline in house prices with a return to their historic norm by this time next year - whether they stabilise at that point is anyone's guess.

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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