PhilT Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 BBC online: UK jobless level increases again This undermines one of the last remaining points the VIs use to talk up house prices - "The housing market is supported by strong fundamentals, including low unemployment, blah, blah..." Annual average earnings growth over the period eased to 3.8% in May from 3.9% in April, the ONS said. Wonder when the last time was that earnings growth was the same as or less than CPI, let alone RPI? Talk about decline in living standards... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Converted Lurker Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 BBC online:UK jobless level increases again This undermines one of the last remaining points the VIs use to talk up house prices - "The housing market is supported by strong fundamentals, including low unemployment, blah, blah..." Wonder when the last time was that earnings growth was the same as or less than CPI, let alone RPI? Talk about decline in living standards... biggest number on jobseekers on allowance since 1992 and this is post methodology 'meddling' Fukc... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papag Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 biggest number on jobseekers on allowance since 1992 and this is post methodology 'meddling' Fukc... Yes anyone know if the incapacity claimants were up as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1929crash Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 biggest number on jobseekers on allowance since 1992 and this is post methodology 'meddling' Fukc... The rate of increase is set IMO, to increase sharply. For those who can remember this really does have the feel of the summer of 1980 all over again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 biggest number on jobseekers on allowance since 1992 and this is post methodology 'meddling' Fukc... Not quite correct, it's the biggest 'jump' not total. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Converted Lurker Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Yes anyone know if the incapacity claimants were up as well link on ONS down, 'bottom line' only 75% of adults capable of work are in work. By any definition we have 25% unemployment (vis a vis comparisons with the 70's early 80's methodology) http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Converted Lurker Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 look at the 'job shrinkage' on this table in the labour market section: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/instantfigures.asp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1929crash Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 link on ONS down, 'bottom line' only 75% of adults capable of work are in work. By any definition we have 25% unemployment (vis a vis comparisons with the 70's early 80's methodology) http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=12 I agree to some extent, but in the 1970s there was not such a high proprtion of women in work, so it's all a bit complicated IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElPapasito Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 FTSE dropping fast now on 15.5k actual against 10k predicted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Converted Lurker Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Not quite correct, it's the biggest 'jump' not total. yep the rate is down on this time last year, ONS links now working: The inactivity rate for people of working age was 20.9 per cent for the three months to May 2008, unchanged over the previous quarter but down 0.3 over the year. The number of economically inactive people of working age increased by 7,000 over the quarter but fell by 60,000 over the year to reach 7.87 million . http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashConnoisseur Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 IB claimant count figures. papag #3: ...anyone know if the incapacity claimants were up as well Unlikely as the claimant count has been in slow decline for some years. the reaper #5: doesnt really matter,having gone from700k in 1997 to 2.65million now,a few thou here and tehre is irrelevant. The IB claimant count in 1997 was around 2.5 million -- about the same as today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winnie Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 IB claimant count figures.papag #3: ...anyone know if the incapacity claimants were up as well Unlikely as the claimant count has been in slow decline for some years. the reaper #5: doesnt really matter,having gone from700k in 1997 to 2.65million now,a few thou here and tehre is irrelevant. The IB claimant count in 1997 was around 2.5 million -- about the same as today. This is the last bastion of the mantra "sound fundmentals...." As George Osborne said today, the rate of inflation is now twice as high as what Labour inherited from the Tories..... IRs as we know are disgracefully low. As the chart above show beautifully Labour have fr**ged the figs blatantly - straight swap - one day you are unemployed - next day you are "incapacitated".......................and lo! Unemployment figures drop massively....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lulu Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 I agree to some extent, but in the 1970s there was not such a high proprtion of women in work, so it's all a bit complicated IMO. But, the women who were not in work back in the 1970's presumably would not have been claiming any benefits? Would that be correct? (Assuming that the reason they were not working was that they had children and a husband to support them) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detached Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 This is the last bastion of the mantra "sound fundmentals...." Indeed. The government always go on about employment levels - yes they are up but largely thanks to minimum wage earning Eastern European immigrants (true for the great majority) and non essential public workers. We should also include all the highly paid private sector management/IT consultants who have been milking the NHS and other government departments in recent years, as well as all various financiers and lawyers who have been enriching themselves on flawed PFI deals. None of the above is 'sound' IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImA20SomethingGetMeOutOfHere Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 doesnt really matter,having gone from700k in 1997 to 2.65million now,a few thou here and tehre is irrelevant. FFS is that figure real? That's about 10% of the workforce! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedgefunded Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 FFS is that figure real?That's about 10% of the workforce! About 80% as far as I can tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munro Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 (edited) This is the last bastion of the mantra "sound fundmentals...."As George Osborne said today, the rate of inflation is now twice as high as what Labour inherited from the Tories..... IRs as we know are disgracefully low. As the chart above show beautifully Labour have fr**ged the figs blatantly - straight swap - one day you are unemployed - next day you are "incapacitated".......................and lo! Unemployment figures drop massively....... As the chart above beautifully shows, most of the effect you are talking about happened under the Conservatives. Since 1997 the rate of increase for IB has flattened considerably. There was a programme recently about trends in IB in South Wales. They interviewed a civil servant who worked under the Conservative government in the early/mid 90s, who said he now thinks it was a disastrous policy - deliberate government policy - of shifting people off unemployment onto IB. Labour might be a useless bunch of phuqwits but it is disingenuous to claim the Conservatives had no part in this - they engineered the policy. As for inflation, whatever it might have been in 1997, the oil price then was a fraction of the present number. So it'd probably be little if any different if the Conservatives were in charge now. Osborne can b*llsh!t all he likes, there's precious little reason to get misty-eyed and nostalgic about the good old days of 1997. You can't get that world back because of the change in oil prices. Osborne will be as useless as Brown and Darling, only in a different way. And yes, I'd bet good money on that. edit - considerable typo Edited July 16, 2008 by munro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicholas Cage Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 (edited) IB claimant count figures.papag #3: ...anyone know if the incapacity claimants were up as well Unlikely as the claimant count has been in slow decline for some years. the reaper #5: doesnt really matter,having gone from700k in 1997 to 2.65million now,a few thou here and tehre is irrelevant. The IB claimant count in 1997 was around 2.5 million -- about the same as today. What happened to Disability Living Allowance This is the same as your graph but updated to May 2008 http://www.dwp.gov.uk/publications/dwp/200.../Fullreport.pdf Was there a massive increase in takeup of benefits, http://www.dsdni.gov.uk/incapacity_benefit http://www.dsdni.gov.uk/scb_ibsda_aug07.xls Disability Living Allowance - August 2007 Edit: Also the second graph , Incapacity benefit didn't exist until 1995-1996 , so can't be graphed. and jobseekers allowance would combine Income Support. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/Expo...heets/D3991.csv 3 Jobseeker’s Allowance introduced 7 October 1996, replacing unemployment benefit and Income Support for the unemployed. 4 A relatively small number of claims do not result in the payment of benefit but are included here because they indicate notified incapacity for work. 5 Includes overseas cases. As at end of March 6 Incapacity Benefit replaced Sickness Benefit and Invalidity Benefit from 13 April 1995. Figures are taken at the last day in February. 7 Attendance Allowance figures are based at 31 March until 1995 then at the end of May. 8 Figures are given as at May of each year. Edited July 16, 2008 by maxwell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.