macfarlan Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Punter posted this link on another thread, i think for different reasons, but it made me want to ask a question I've been thinking about. Link shows Jim Rogers talking about fannie and freddie, and how the tax payer bailout is outrageous. Interesting link in itself but the English guy Ross (4min 30s), suggests that this crisis is similar to the 80's debt crises. I don't know anything about this, and want to brush the comment off as an establishment mouthpiece comment, but it makes me wonder; What are the differences between now and then, if the internet was about then, would we be saying the same things about then as we are now? Or is it just a stupid TV show regular type thing to say? Please don't flame me cos I don't know, but I was hoping that some of the more informed poster on here (and there are plenty) might be able to point out the main differences. In the meantime I'll see what info i can find out but I have a job interview thursday and need to spend my spare time getting ready for it tomorrow. I'll post anything of interest i find Friday if there's any interest in this subject. Linky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timil Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 In a word, Speed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Scale? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macfarlan Posted July 15, 2008 Author Share Posted July 15, 2008 I mean apart from speed and scale. Not really. Can you elaborate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobby9983 Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 (edited) Have a look at this wikipedia explanation of money supply From that you'll see that since 1995 approx the brakes were severed on money and particularly bank credit supply. That bubble has just started to burst. The 80's i.e national savings and loans, LCTM etc by comparison were small and localised in comparison. This time its global. Edited July 15, 2008 by bobby9983 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 (edited) Every other crisis has been beaten back by either changing the rules (not paying the gold back and making certificates legal tender for example) or growing the way out of it. Neither is an option here and so the whole edifice will collapse and die. This crisis has been on the cards since 1929. In fact it's the same one. Everything that has been done to avoid that bankrupcy has lead us here. Edited July 15, 2008 by Injin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macfarlan Posted July 15, 2008 Author Share Posted July 15, 2008 Have a look at this wikipedia explanation of money supply From that you'll see that since 1995 approx the brakes were severed on money and particularly bank credit supply. That bubble has just started to burst. The 80's i.e national savings and loans, LCTM etc by comparison were small and localised in comparison. This time its global. Thanks bobby9983, I know I need to read these kinds of things, I've not been thorough enough when it comes to the research. At first glance tho, I cant help thinking that in comparison the 80's looks small, but back then, it would have been the biggest thing around. I go from being astounded by the things I learn to thinking 'maybe it's always been like this, what do I know'. I need to understand the 'small and localised in comparison' to get a proper grasp on this. and the speed and the scale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobby9983 Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Thanks bobby9983, I know I need to read these kinds of things, I've not been thorough enough when it comes to the research. At first glance tho, I cant help thinking that in comparison the 80's looks small, but back then, it would have been the biggest thing around. I go from being astounded by the things I learn to thinking 'maybe it's always been like this, what do I know'. I need to understand the 'small and localised in comparison' to get a proper grasp on this.and the speed and the scale. have a look at this http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse. it's a really good high level view in laymans terms (which is good if you're like me). the theory of compounding and exponential growth really hits it home. once you reach the tipping point into exponential growth the only way is straight back down. the only thing the people in control can do is extend the inevitable and the author is right when he says that the "next 20 years will be completely different from the last". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 My fav graph atm: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobby9983 Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 it's a good one. if only greenspan had stuck to his roots and kept the fed rate pegged to gold in 1995 we might have avoided two stock market crashes (1st being dotcom, second being whats happening right now) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macfarlan Posted July 15, 2008 Author Share Posted July 15, 2008 have a look at this http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse. it's a really good high level view in laymans terms (which is good if you're like me).the theory of compounding and exponential growth really hits it home. once you reach the tipping point into exponential growth the only way is straight back down. the only thing the people in control can do is extend the inevitable and the author is right when he says that the "next 20 years will be completely different from the last". Thanks again, will have to look at this later, but any info is appreciated. P.S. On 2nd glance at the wikipedia link, M3 looks exponential in Australia and India for starters, and stops of that around 2005 for US (I understand they stopped calculating it) so looks pretty serious. I was reading recently about TMS, and how the guy (maybe Schiff?) was putting the case for TMS as a more accurate way of assessing money in circulation, but that looked just as bad. Either way it doesn't look good. I'm really starting to believe that TSHTF scenario, right now. And i thought i already did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobby9983 Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Thanks again, will have to look at this later, but any info is appreciated.P.S. On 2nd glance at the wikipedia link, M3 looks exponential in Australia and India for starters, and stops of that around 2005 for US (I understand they stopped calculating it) so looks pretty serious. I was reading recently about TMS, and how the guy (maybe Schiff?) was putting the case for TMS as a more accurate way of assessing money in circulation, but that looked just as bad. Either way it doesn't look good. I'm really starting to believe that TSHTF scenario, right now. And i thought i already did. I also found this when I was looking at a Dow Chart and wondering why it went mental in 1995 and was shortly followed by a predicted equity bubble in the Dot Com and then Asset bubble in todays global property bubble. It's all Greenspans fault - Apparently http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=292 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammo Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 We now have far better music Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobby9983 Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 We now have far better music No way man what about Human League? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1929crash Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Firstly, the scale is different - the amount of debt and dubious financial intsruments such as Credit Default Swaps (the invention of an obviously sick mind) is way beyond anything that we have seen before. Plus we are being hit by a global energy crisis caused by the end of cheap and easy to get oil and natural gas, which is impacting transport, food, petrochemicals etc. Plus we are being hit by the early symptoms of global warming. Converging catastrophes indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huw Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Firstly, the scale is different - the amount of debt and dubious financial intsruments such as Credit Default Swaps (the invention of an obviously sick mind) is way beyond anything that we have seen before.Plus we are being hit by a global energy crisis caused by the end of cheap and easy to get oil and natural gas, which is impacting transport, food, petrochemicals etc. Plus we are being hit by the early symptoms of global warming. Converging catastrophes indeed. Agreed on the above. Also in the 1980s the world was split into nice neat categories like the First World, the Second World, and the Third World, and the others knew their places and refrained from competing for too many of the resources that rightfully belonged to us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
right_freds_dead Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 No way man what about Human League? rubbish. what about hawkwind ? or marillion ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scuuzeme Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 because it's different this time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Try this: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2...rassimir+petrov Its part 4 but relates to the BUST section of the business cycle. Lasts about an hour, but describes what is happening just about to a tee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Mr Parry Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 My fav graph atm: InternationalRockSuperstar is bang on with this one. This graph tells it better than any other IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve99 Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Whats different this time is the scale of it all. The 'System' ie the banks, big business and governments have colluded to do what they want and how they want to do it, this has gone on for a very long time without anyone or anything stopping them, ' The new paradigm' as far as they are concerned, lending and borrowing at no interest with an infinite payback time, across all countries without boundaries or limits. It has got to the point that all capitalism is concerned about is the wheeling and dealing in money and all its abstracts and have completely missed the point that the concept of money from a banking and government point of view was to keep the real world running smoothly, ie looking after the means of production and infrastructure not just speculation, usury and financial trickery. The freedom handed out to these people was far more than they were grown up enough to handle, Thatcher/Reagan was completely wrong back in the 80's re freedom of the banking system and todays government were too stupid to change it on account of short term popularity issues, mind you the public would vote out anyone suggesting restricted credit. Now these w*nkers have not only got enough rope to hang us all but for a change, maybe themselves as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrGUID Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 I think this is more like the 70's crisis. A 1971 banking crisis got married to a 1973 oil crisis, inflation soared in 1974 and the stockmarket crashed. Like the 1970's, it happened suddenly. 1972 was actually a very good year (5.1% growth). Like the 1970's the markets think the UK will do worse than the US. However, this time around we have weak unions, and unemployment is starting from a very low base (especially as we can just export migrant workers this time around). It's unlikely we would see 3 day working weeks this time. Oh well at least inflation will shrink my mortgage . 1970's stock market crash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.