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VedantaTrader

Us Markets Drop, Fannie+freddie Drop After Bailout

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DOW down 76 points at 11,024 and S+P down 1%. Freddie and Fannie down dropping again. It seems that this maybe not give the desired bounce back after the Bear Stearns debacle...

I do think there will be some buying back. However, as some traders pointed out earlier, the little bounce in Fannie and Freddi was nothing more than short covering. It wasnt buying pressure. It was shorts covering positions who were knew of the bailout. This in anyway, does not make FReddie and Fannie an attractive stock to own...

Why all this pretending they are not insolvent. Surely anyone who thinks buying these two is wrong in the head. Paulson has already shoed himself to be a blantant liar in the words of MISH...

Mike Mish, Paulson blatant Liar

EDIT to say that DOW now dipped below 11,000 mark.

Edited by VedantaTrader

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pfft ....Paulson should have got Banco Santander to buy out F&F...these yanks are blooming amateurs! :lol:

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Weren't people predicting rally following these bits of news about banks going on life-support?

Re Banco Santander - how safe are they?

Edited by blankster

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there was a whole load of positive propaganda all over the press today ... but ultimatly its another BLOODBATH watching it in realtime... (refreshes every minute) ;)

mind you im seein a bit more green on the screen recently

Edited by jonpo

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Depends which way you look at it I suppose.

What would have happened had Paulson NOT said they will loan/inject capital as needed?

Bank index huge drop today

BKX1407.png

Volatility index still rising - Even closer to a blow off

vix140708.png

Financials sector "bullish" indicator flat on its back - When these shorts close and people start buying it will be explosive I think. Question is "when"

bpfina1407.png

post-9973-1216057010_thumb.png

post-9973-1216057026_thumb.png

post-9973-1216057044_thumb.png

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How does that work then jonpo, looking at it makes me feel cool lol

Edited by FortuneFTB

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Financials sector "bullish" indicator flat on its back - When these shorts close and people start buying it will be explosive I think. Question is "when"

Aye but err what price do you wanna put on

WM

FHN

NCC

and

ZION

any of em could be insolvent ? !

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Depends which way you look at it I suppose.

What would have happened had Paulson NOT said they will loan/inject capital as needed?

Bank index huge drop today

BKX1407.png

Volatility index still rising - Even closer to a blow off

vix140708.png

Financials sector "bullish" indicator flat on its back - When these shorts close and people start buying it will be explosive I think. Question is "when"

bpfina1407.png

I certainly wouldnt rule out a rally at some point, however, remember that complete capitualtion can still happen when markets are "oversold". Just maybe when you think a bottom is in due to the VIX reaching previous levels, the VIX could give one huge spike above previous levels. A look back at some charts from history show this. Look at the GBP/USD in 1992, that sell off came when all indicators like MACD, RSI were well below the oversold. Its those blow off spikes when prices can drop another 10-20%. That would go beyond any sensible risk mangement.

Of course it depends on the method you use to enter the market.

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How does that work then jonpo, looking at it makes me feel cool lol

Its hooked up to a free realtime market data source... I just got peed off that there wasn't a site out there where I could just look and see what the whole market is doing at once on one screen in real time... the only other intersting one is

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorit...Y]&disp=SXA

but its not realtime and not sexy enough...

I built it because I have a use for it.. if other people find it useful too then thats good :)

ohh look at all the green coming out now... everyones buying back the stocks they sold how nice... ;)

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I certainly wouldnt rule out a rally at some point, however, remember that complete capitualtion can still happen when markets are "oversold". Just maybe when you think a bottom is in due to the VIX reaching previous levels, the VIX could give one huge spike above previous levels. A look back at some charts from history show this. Look at the GBP/USD in 1992, that sell off came when all indicators like MACD, RSI were well below the oversold. Its those blow off spikes when prices can drop another 10-20%. That would go beyond any sensible risk mangement.

Of course it depends on the method you use to enter the market.

Indeed. I'm not interested in any financials full stop. But I can't see how the market can turn up without them leading it. 10-20% would put the S&P around 1000 and the DOW around 9,000 which I guess could happen. If we did see a massive capitulation like that then it could be a relatively low risk entry point - Every one will be hiding under the desk with their eyes screwed shut and their fingers in their ears I would imagine.

Edited by Red Kharma

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Of course it depends on the method you use to enter the market.

yep I guess Im a momentum trader... e.g in this kind of market (a bear one) Im only ever interested in selling short at new lows..

I wanna be selling for the lowest price ever... the sort of lowball not worth $hit prices.. that will strike fear into every 401K holder ;)

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Indeed. I'm not interested in any financials full stop. But I can't see how the market can turn up without them leading it. 10-20% would put the S&P around 1000 and the DOW around 9,000 which I guess could happen. If we did see a massive capitulation like that then it could be a relatively low risk entry point - Every one will be hiding under the desk with their eyes screwed shut and their fingers in their ears I would imagine.

I think it was inevitible Paulson or the Fed was going to weigh in last night, especially after the collapse of the Californian Bank on Friday night. The US Administration is clearly worried by the negative sentiment that is eroding consumers wealth, on a near-daily basis. I have never witnessed such negative sentiment towards financials in my life and I think the bottom could still be a long way off. Economic activity in the US will remain sluggish for ther foreseeable future and the only way we will see a meaningful rally in US stocks is if we get clear evidence of dollar strengthening or significant retracements in commodity prices, though one will likely trigger the other. If commodity prices were to fall, investors in these markets will switch to equities or the dollar, while a strengthening in the dollar itself would attract greater foreign capital and restore some confidence in the US economy. It might take a large negative somewhere else, like the collapse of a European Bank, China's lifting of energy subsidies or political back-stabbing over ECB monetary policy, to force a US rebound. Don't rule out direct currency market intervention, which is now getting closer by the day I would think than at any time during this whole crisis.

Sebastian

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Aye but err what price do you wanna put on

WM

FHN

NCC

and

ZION

any of em could be insolvent ? !

OK looks like the end of WM !! wow that was quick... see the WM backrun thread !!

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I think it was inevitible Paulson or the Fed was going to weigh in last night, especially after the collapse of the Californian Bank on Friday night. The US Administration is clearly worried by the negative sentiment that is eroding consumers wealth, on a near-daily basis. I have never witnessed such negative sentiment towards financials in my life and I think the bottom could still be a long way off. Economic activity in the US will remain sluggish for ther foreseeable future and the only way we will see a meaningful rally in US stocks is if we get clear evidence of dollar strengthening or significant retracements in commodity prices, though one will likely trigger the other. If commodity prices were to fall, investors in these markets will switch to equities or the dollar, while a strengthening in the dollar itself would attract greater foreign capital and restore some confidence in the US economy. It might take a large negative somewhere else, like the collapse of a European Bank, China's lifting of energy subsidies or political back-stabbing over ECB monetary policy, to force a US rebound. Don't rule out direct currency market intervention, which is now getting closer by the day I would think than at any time during this whole crisis.

Sebastian

Agree entirely yep. The focus is naturally enough on the US at the moment, but if things start coming unstuck in Europe it could change rapidly.

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Agree entirely yep. The focus is naturally enough on the US at the moment, but if things start coming unstuck in Europe it could change rapidly.

I work in the currency markets and it is quite extraordinary to see how the rather woeful economic data out of the UK and the euro area has been ignored by the markets over the past month. Evidence is growing that the slowdown in the UK and the euro area is accelerating at a faster pace than that in the US, but the focus has been exclusively on the deterioration in the US, particularly in the banking/mortgage sector. When the worm turns, it could be just as brutal on the other side, i.e. curtains for the euro and the pound and the wider band of European currencies, which have been getting away with murder. GDP in the euro area probably contracted in the second quarter and the euro area could be in a technical recession by the end of September, yet the ECB keep telling us the economic fundamentals in the euro area are 'sound'.

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Its hooked up to a free realtime market data source... I just got peed off that there wasn't a site out there where I could just look and see what the whole market is doing at once on one screen in real time...

It is worth noting that viewing this in firefox is a real no no. I was wondering what it was all about until I opened it in IE.

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It is worth noting that viewing this in firefox is a real no no. I was wondering what it was all about until I opened it in IE.

yeah sorry FF is not working becuase it doesn't support the tags I'll rewrite a non animated one for FF users at another time...

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yeah sorry FF is not working becuase it doesn't support the tags I'll rewrite a non animated one for FF users at another time...

Looks cool mate ;)

What markets does it feed from, just American or UK as well?

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Looks cool mate ;)

What markets does it feed from, just American or UK as well?

yeah just US (the s and P 500) at the moment the only decent up to date data I can find is from BATStrading they are trying to make the market data market more liberal as for too long there has been a cozy bloomberg/reuters duoploly...

battrading europe is due to open soon though ... :) should give the LSE a run for its money...

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http://stockcharts.com/charts/carpet.html

This is sometimes interesting. Look at the financials sector today and the leading fallers in the table on the right.

Thats a nice little tool, cheers. It could be a good one to choose quick reversal trades in a particular sector. Sure does look like only a recovery from the financials will lead any move higher.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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