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AteMoose

The Way Out

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Keep it simple folks there are only two options, do you believe that the exit is via the deflationary door, or the inflationary door? If you believe in another path choose the option that is the best fit.

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Guest The_Oldie

I expect short term inflation followed by long term deflation, so have not voted in the poll.

Edit: The above relates to the general economy (RPI), not house prices.

For house prices, I expect short and long term deflation.

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Guest Mr Parry

Deflation in everything either bought on credit or not really necessary - houses, cars, big stuff

Inflation in all human needs - food, energy etc

Deflation in wages

Inflation in misery

Edited by Mr Parry

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We're 7/8 years into a commodity bull run that should last another 8-10 years so I don't see how we will get deflation.

Just out of interest, how do you know it should last another 8-10 years?

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Just out of interest, how do you know it should last another 8-10 years?

House gold oil commodity prices only ever go up!

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Guest Steve Cook
House gold oil commodity prices only ever go up!

on this occasssion, injin, i am afraid they do

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Just out of interest, how do you know it should last another 8-10 years?

I think it could last another 8-12 years. In 200 years of capitalism commodity bull markets have lasted between 14 and 22 years, without fails. All the fundamentals and monetary policy would indicate that it is not going to be any different this time...

The other point to remember that in past commodity bull markets it is quite normal to get 50% corrections...

Inflation adjusted terms this is the cheapest commodities have been in 200 years...

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I expect short term inflation followed by long term deflation, so have not voted in the poll.

Edit: The above relates to the general economy (RPI), not house prices.

For house prices, I expect short and long term deflation.

if you believe in long term deflation, IMHO your in the deflation camp....

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I expect short term inflation followed by long term deflation, so have not voted in the poll.

Edit: The above relates to the general economy (RPI), not house prices.

For house prices, I expect short and long term deflation.

Pretty much wot The Oldie sed, with an added "but don't expect much wage inflation in the inflationary bit".

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Deflation in everything either bought on credit or not really necessary - houses, cars, big stuff

Inflation in all human needs - food, energy etc

Deflation in wages

Inflation in misery

yes agreed plus , interest rates will fall in the next few years.

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How anyone can think we aren;t going to see hyperinflation by now I don't know.

The US doubled their national debt over the weekend!

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How anyone can think we aren;t going to see hyperinflation by now I don't know.

The US doubled their national debt over the weekend!

If you believe Jim Rogers who by the way runs his own commodity index AND is short all banks!

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If you believe Jim Rogers who by the way runs his own commodity index AND is short all banks!

I think he just added $5trillion to $5 trillion.

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whatever he said he's got a massive VI in hyperinflation

Sure he does.

They still doiubled the national debt over the weekend and have no means other thna printing to pay it back. Every time theres been a dodgy moment, they have bailed out. it's not difficult to see where this is going, surely?

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One thing the likes of Rogers and Roubini have got bang on the money today is that the Fed should never have bailed out the GSE's.

Roubini called it "the mother of all moral hazards".

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Sure he does.

They still doiubled the national debt over the weekend and have no means other thna printing to pay it back. Every time theres been a dodgy moment, they have bailed out. it's not difficult to see where this is going, surely?

exactly and people wonder why the price oil (and everything else) is rising when its priced in magic money

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I'd rather have a job and pay more than no job and pay less, although the choices in life are not that simple. There should have been a third option - suicide.

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There will be deflation of the money supply but inflation in the prices of goods.

Initially, the above may not make sense but the solution to the paradox is a rapid fall in the standard of living.

VMR.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
The US doubled their national debt over the weekend!

According to the Debt Clock, the U.S. national debt stands at $9,500,840,217,543.21.

So a few days ago it was approx. $4,750,420,108,251.11?

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Guest Bart of Darkness
Shame that doesn't auto-refresh

Aye. My figures are already out of date. :(

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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