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Fthp Index Out Friday 11th July - Still My Favourite -0.6%

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http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/FTHPI%20Pres...20June%2008.pdf

still my favourite (even though the lag) as it uses all LR data and revises previous months.

Slightly wound me up this month though with a bit of spin. They have added their comaprison of annual house price change graphs to try to suggest that Halifax and NAtionwide are out of step with the other indices. The other indices being the 3 that lag the Nationwide and Halifax data. If you shift the graph by the 3 month approx lag in data, they are a pretty good fit.

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Slightly wound me up this month though with a bit of spin.

Don't understand why it's your fave Crown. Peter Williams is a D...head. This month his cr4p includes 'This is despite the strong fundamentals that underpin the market.'

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Don't understand why it's your fave Crown. Peter Williams is a D...head. This month his cr4p includes 'This is despite the strong fundamentals that underpin the market.'

The index is my favourite, not the commentary. I like the index becuse it is revised historically as new data comes in (this month I think march and may were revised downwards) and it includes all transactions from LR.

But the commentary is woeful.

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http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/FTHPI%20Pres...20June%2008.pdf

still my favourite (even though the lag) as it uses all LR data and revises previous months.

Slightly wound me up this month though with a bit of spin. They have added their comaprison of annual house price change graphs to try to suggest that Halifax and NAtionwide are out of step with the other indices. The other indices being the 3 that lag the Nationwide and Halifax data. If you shift the graph by the 3 month approx lag in data, they are a pretty good fit.

The great thing about this index is that it covers all sales. They have also fallen into the Halifax 3 month rolling average trick (or trap) to make the figures look better now. This means they'll also look worse for longer later :)

It seems that most regions peaked in Oct/Nov 2007 i.e. about 3 months after many of our brethren here called the top (based on mortgage approvals, not completions). Only with the London lag has the national average styed high. If London is now falling consistently then the national averages are going to tumble.

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Seems the FT can't decide which index to use either.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4e088f04-4fb5-11...?nclick_check=1

Differing house price data concern economists

By Chris Giles, Economics Editor

Published: July 12 2008 03:00 | Last updated: July 12 2008 03:00

House prices have fallen for the past four months, according to the FT house price index for June, but contrary to recent data from mortgage lenders the survey showed valuations remained 1.8 per cent higher than in June 2007...

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Well, the FT-HPI is basically a blended index, i.e. it uses the LR data as and when it becomes available but it’s designed to sidestep the inevitable lagginess by grafting on a forecast for the most recent months. The forecast it is based on wider data including other indices.

But I agree that the Halifax and Nationwide indices do appear to be diverging below FT-HPI, LR-HPI, and CLG-MA by a bit more than can be accounted for by simply looking at the lag.

One explanation … we know that surveyors are down-valuing at the approval stage, and, interestingly, and Haliwide methodology seems to suggest that they include approval stage valuations irrespective of whether the approval/application actually leads to a sale/completion. If this is the case, then the valuation data pretty much reflects what the surveyors think it should be, rather than what the buyer/sellers have initially agreed. Given that the surveyors currently feel that prices should be lower, this introduces a down bias, and the bias is likely to be exaggerated when the number of actual sales has collapsed.

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Not so Mr Spline, apparently both Halifax and Nationwide use the price agreed between buyer and seller, NOT the surveyors valuation price, so (provided the surveyor downvaluing doesn't actually stop the mortgage getting approved i.e. the LTV is still good enough) surveyors downvaluing should not affect the indices.

Thanks to Tom for the above info... muchus respectus. :D

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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