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macfarlan

Estate Agents Closing

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I had to share this story with you folks before I burst.

Driving to a chip shop tonight in Chorlton Manchester, I was telling Mrs macfarlan about a topic I'd read here this week, where FP had been on Channel 4 doing an update of an appearance 3 months earlier. The topic included a link to the 3 month old news story, which included news from Experian showing their 4 negative equity hotspots, one of which was Chorlton. We both agreed that prices had gone crazy there recently so this would make sense. Yadda yadda yadda.

So we're sitting in the chip shop waiting for our order, and I notice an empty shop over the road with whitewashed windows, I'd not noticed it before and thought it was a bit odd as the area is reasonably affluent. Mrs macfarlan thought it may have been an estate agents, but wasn't sure, so when our order was ready I asked the guy behind the counter. His reply almost floored me. He said that it was Halifax estate agents, closed days ago, and pointed out 3 others had closed within 9 days of that one, and all within 30 yards of each other. He also said his girlfriend (an estate agent) was made redundant during the same period and told me that make no mistake, the shit was about to hit the fan in a big way, (I kind of know this being a regular on this forum), and started talking about the recession we're in.

I'm hugely bearish on property but this shocked me. It's the first real evidence I've seen around here of the crash.

As an aside, I was looking at buying property in this area about 18 months ago, and had walked into a recently opened EA who told me they'd opened because it was one of the hottest property spots in the country. I didn't buy, and am soooo glad.

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The chip shop on Beech Road? Lovely to hear of the essential truth of an asset price deflation being played out over a deep fat fryer.

Chorlton has large numbers of young professionals mortgaged up to their t*ts. Some decent pubs, decent restaurants, bit of a villagy feel, pretty close into city centre manchester, so ripe territory for a bubble over the last few years.

If the story is right, then it is a symptom of a squealing and screeching grinding to a halt of transaction levels and a forerunner of a big lurch down in about a year's time when those who could do with selling realise the slide won't stop. I reckon Chorlton is a good example of an area where it will take a little while longer for prices to drop, because so many bought at such big prices, the period of denial will last longer. Contrast this with "out of town" apartment blocks in sh*tholes like Sportcity, Ardwick and the rest which will be worth about 2 bob in a couple of months as what few buyers there are realise they can get one of the decent city centre apartments on or off Deansgate for less than the Sportcity box (view over a road, a council estate or Man City stadium carpark) cost 10 months ago.

There were so many estate agents, because as you say, it was a seen as one of the places to buy. Plenty of nice young couples in their late 20s will have large dollops of negative equity hanging round them like an albatross. Pity, but their choice.

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Not on Beech Road, think it's called Barlow Moor road, near the four banks.

I think you're right tho, there'll be a long drawn out period of denial there, and some serious pain for many after that.

and the story is true, but as with any anecdotal, it is difficult to prove. Anyone in the area though can go see for themselves.

Chorlton has seen a frenzy of price rises, but as with many other areas, not any more.

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Yeah I think Manchesters going to get Crunched hard...every cabbie I spoke to over the weekend was wingeing over how quiet things had been..same with my hairdresser...evryone in work is talking about it and a number of commercial agents I know are shitting bricks. so you told I.

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Yeah I think Manchesters going to get Crunched hard...every cabbie I spoke to over the weekend was wingeing over how quiet things had been..same with my hairdresser...evryone in work is talking about it and a number of commercial agents I know are shitting bricks. so you told I.

I'd like to think it's a good thing. Property prices will drop, but I'm convinced that the resulting economic problems will be harsh. Lot's of people are worried.

I'm surprised at the lack of replies to this topic, but again, that could be down to the fact that people are more worried about inflation/delation, where to store money, Fannie and Freddie, where to buy a bunker etc.

It's just not about houses any more.

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I'd like to think it's a good thing. Property prices will drop, but I'm convinced that the resulting economic problems will be harsh. Lot's of people are worried.

I'm surprised at the lack of replies to this topic, but again, that could be down to the fact that people are more worried about inflation/delation, where to store money, Fannie and Freddie, where to buy a bunker etc.

It's just not about houses any more.

Friday of last week I went into town (It's not very often I do this during tourist season) and on my travels I walked past four estate agents.

They were all empty, members of staff sitting around doing nothing, talking amongst themselves.

Nobody looking at the ads in the windows either.

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Interesting.. yes. Local Anecdote that is being played out everywhere. I tend to look at the Northampton area and it means so much more when I know the area / estate agents myself. Don't take it too hard, so much bear food at moment (salmon, nah, bored of salmon - been catching them for a fortnight).

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Yeah I think Manchesters going to get Crunched hard...every cabbie I spoke to over the weekend was wingeing over how quiet things had been..

Cabbies - after the world's oldest profession they are the first to feel the effect of a drop in discretionary spending.

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The chippy may sound worried, but I think chip shops will be OK.

People still need to eat, and a bag of chips will be a real treat for many.

Probably one of the most ressession proof small businesses to own out there at this moment in time.

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A noticed on the weekend quite a big swish office in Cheltenham has just gone... Bath Rd right near the High St.

"It won't affect Cheltenham"..... errr yeah, right.

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Cabbies - after the world's oldest profession they are the first to feel the effect of a drop in discretionary spending.

So for most boys an increase in RSI cases?

Which will increase the NHS load ........ sorry :rolleyes:

________________________________--

When all the loon asking prices are whitewashed over, where will the Halliwide figs come from?

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Probably one of the most ressession proof small businesses to own out there at this moment in time.

I'm not hard up, by any means.

I went into a chippy the other night and for the first time in a while actually looked at the prices. £1.35 for a small bag of chips, £1.85 for a large bag.

I instinctively thought 'wow, that's a lot'. I don't eat fish so usually my purchase is a few bags of chips and maybe mushy peas.

I often watch other people in the queue handing over £20 for a few portions of fish and chips.

When times get tight chippies will suffer. Pawnbroking is recession proof. Can't think of much else. £1 shops?

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Cabbies - after the world's oldest profession they are the first to feel the effect of a drop in discretionary spending.

aye - for the former there is always shanks' pony.

and for the latter there is mrs. thumb and her four lovely daughters.

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I had to share this story with you folks before I burst.

Driving to a chip shop tonight in Chorlton Manchester, I was telling Mrs macfarlan about a topic I'd read here this week, where FP had been on Channel 4 doing an update of an appearance 3 months earlier. The topic included a link to the 3 month old news story, which included news from Experian showing their 4 negative equity hotspots, one of which was Chorlton. We both agreed that prices had gone crazy there recently so this would make sense. Yadda yadda yadda.

So we're sitting in the chip shop waiting for our order, and I notice an empty shop over the road with whitewashed windows, I'd not noticed it before and thought it was a bit odd as the area is reasonably affluent. Mrs macfarlan thought it may have been an estate agents, but wasn't sure, so when our order was ready I asked the guy behind the counter. His reply almost floored me. He said that it was Halifax estate agents, closed days ago, and pointed out 3 others had closed within 9 days of that one, and all within 30 yards of each other.

The chip shop on Beech Road? Lovely to hear of the essential truth of an asset price deflation being played out over a deep fat fryer.

Chorlton has large numbers of young professionals mortgaged up to their t*ts. Some decent pubs, decent restaurants, bit of a villagy feel, pretty close into city centre manchester, so ripe territory for a bubble over the last few years.

If the story is right, then it is a symptom of a squealing and screeching grinding to a halt of transaction levels and a forerunner of a big lurch down in about a year's time when those who could do with selling realise the slide won't stop. I reckon Chorlton is a good example of an area where it will take a little while longer for prices to drop, because so many bought at such big prices, the period of denial will last longer. Contrast this with "out of town" apartment blocks in sh*tholes like Sportcity, Ardwick and the rest which will be worth about 2 bob in a couple of months as what few buyers there are realise they can get one of the decent city centre apartments on or off Deansgate for less than the Sportcity box (view over a road, a council estate or Man City stadium carpark) cost 10 months ago.

There were so many estate agents, because as you say, it was a seen as one of the places to buy. Plenty of nice young couples in their late 20s will have large dollops of negative equity hanging round them like an albatross. Pity, but their choice.

Being a 'young professional' living in Chorlton who bought 6 years ago I agree with a lot of these comments (thankfully we never moved or MEW'd so are sitting on lots of fake equity), but Halifax estate agencies closures are rife everywhere and negative equity is only a problem if you haven't got a job and need to sell your house.

It is true that you can't sell a house for love nor money here though, but most that I know who are trying to don't need to move yet and for every over-indebted young professional there is a unemcumbered old couple so I don't quite know where Equifax get their info.

I think that Manchester is pretty well placed to ride things out. There is job creation everywhere. 15,000 media jobs. £3 billion public transport investment coming. Bank of New York buying all the office space in the city centre and rumours of JP Morgan coming.

Not to mention that Manchester is the capital of the UK's debt management industry, a large litigation centre and big on telecoms and IT all of which wuill ontinue to do well in a recession so I don't quite know where these 'Manchester is going to get badly crunched' comments come from.

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A funny thing has recently happened in my local town.

An EA closed down in Feb / March maybe?

The three remaining EAs have been struggling, and the empty shop that the closed EA vacated has remained closed, with the whitewash windows...acting as a visible sign of the property crash.

However, last week one of the remaining EA's has moved into the closed down EA office (literally moving 3 doors down).

They are in the local rag saying the move is down to a better location leading to an increas in passing trade! It's literally 3/4 doors down!!

Their old office is now closed, with signs in the window saying "we've moved 3 doors down".

Quite a clever trick, as closed EAs are bad for general business....but a sign of the times and of their desperation etc.

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but Halifax estate agencies closures are rife everywhere

Franchises are they not?

So they will have been handing over a good sum each month for the 'priviledge' of the badge & thus their model would have gone phut earlier than average

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Franchises are they not?

So they will have been handing over a good sum each month for the 'priviledge' of the badge & thus their model would have gone phut earlier than average

I think the Chorlton one is actually a Halifax owned branch and HBOS haven't liked their estate agencies for a long time so any excuse to shut them down is a good one.

They've even got a branch about 50 yards up the same street. You would be correct about the franchise scenario too.

I am not saying that Chorlton doesn't have a massive oversupply of estate agents. It could probably get by on a quarter of the number it has now.

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Being a 'young professional' living in Chorlton who bought 6 years ago I agree with a lot of these comments (thankfully we never moved or MEW'd so are sitting on lots of fake equity), but Halifax estate agencies closures are rife everywhere and negative equity is only a problem if you haven't got a job and need to sell your house.

It is true that you can't sell a house for love nor money here though, but most that I know who are trying to don't need to move yet and for every over-indebted young professional there is a unemcumbered old couple so I don't quite know where Equifax get their info.

I think that Manchester is pretty well placed to ride things out. There is job creation everywhere. 15,000 media jobs. £3 billion public transport investment coming. Bank of New York buying all the office space in the city centre and rumours of JP Morgan coming.

Not to mention that Manchester is the capital of the UK's debt management industry, a large litigation centre and big on telecoms and IT all of which wuill ontinue to do well in a recession so I don't quite know where these 'Manchester is going to get badly crunched' comments come from.

bobby, you seem to be quite well informed about the situation in Manchester, so forgive me for my uneducated sentiment,. The thing about Chorlton for me is that it's been such a sought after area recently, it's my guess that a lot of property that has changed hands in the last few years, has been bought by people who would be more likely to stretch to afford to buy there, because of the lure of the place. I'm guessing that this is the kind of thing Experian would look at.

They say it's the places that have seen the biggest rises, that see the biggest falls. Chorlton has seen rampant property inflation recently.

Edit to add: and for every young professional in Manchester, there seems to be an average joe getting in as much debt as possible to keep up appearances.

Edited by macfarlan

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Guest Mr Parry
Being a 'young professional' living in Chorlton who bought 6 years ago I agree with a lot of these comments (thankfully we never moved or MEW'd so are sitting on lots of fake equity), but Halifax estate agencies closures are rife everywhere and negative equity is only a problem if you haven't got a job and need to sell your house.

It is true that you can't sell a house for love nor money here though, but most that I know who are trying to don't need to move yet and for every over-indebted young professional there is a unemcumbered old couple so I don't quite know where Equifax get their info.

I think that Manchester is pretty well placed to ride things out. There is job creation everywhere. 15,000 media jobs. £3 billion public transport investment coming. Bank of New York buying all the office space in the city centre and rumours of JP Morgan coming.

Not to mention that Manchester is the capital of the UK's debt management industry, a large litigation centre and big on telecoms and IT all of which wuill ontinue to do well in a recession so I don't quite know where these 'Manchester is going to get badly crunched' comments come from.

Trouble is these jobs were planned during the boom times. Unlikely many will see light of day now.

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News from South Wales from the front line. I am an estate agent and I would like to clarify the situation in the Port Talbot area.

The market here is stagnent with very few buyers, but you all knew that <_<, However new listings are also stagnent and the few sellers on the market ARE reducing prices by up to 20 % with NO EFFECT.

Most potential sellers moving to other areas to change jobs are renting to rent. It seems to me prices are crashing, but the fear of recession is now taking a more active role in the market.

What will happen when the reposessions start to incease drastically, as they surely will, may well have no effect on the market as I cannot see any demand for these properties either.

IMO whats coming is going to be far worse than a HPC and Oil Price rises at current levels may even result in a war.

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bobby, you seem to be quite well informed about the situation in Manchester, so forgive me for my uneducated sentiment,. The thing about Chorlton for me is that it's been such a sought after area recently, that it's my guess that a lot of property that has changed hands in the last few years, has been bought by people who would be more likely to stretch to afford to buy there, because of the lure of the place. I'm guessing that this is the kind of thing Experian would look at.

They say it's the places that have seen the biggest rises, that see the biggest falls. Chorlton has seen rampant property inflation recently.

I stopped looking at the price of my house in 2004, I have no idea what it is now. If it's the same or slightly less than it was then I'm still well in the black and in the last 6 years I've paid probably £30,000 off my loan.

I would be more worried though if I had bought recently. But again, if I've got a repayment mortgage, my job is in a secure-ish industry. Then why have I got to worry about negative equity? I know loads of older people who were underwater massively in the last crash and interest rates were at 15%!!

There will always be a lure in Chorlton because it's the only decent place to live inside the M60.

Trouble is these jobs were planned during the boom times. Unlikely many will see light of day now.

Well that's simply not true Mr Parry, all of what I mentioned is happening or has already happened.

Why pay a bank clerk £45k per annum in the City of London and £90 per square foot office space when you can halve that on a young scrote in Manchester spend £20k training them and save £60 per square foot on your offices to boot?

Same with the BBC and any other industry that needs to save money for that matter.

Edited by bobby9983

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Chorlton has large numbers of young professionals mortgaged up to their t*ts. Some decent pubs, decent restaurants, bit of a villagy feel, pretty close into city centre manchester, so ripe territory for a bubble over the last few years.

The "high" streets in Chorlton, Barlow Moor Road and Wilbraham Road have degenerated horribly in the last 10 years. If you were to strip out the "lifestyle" wine bars, cafes and estate agents there would be little left.

The staggering rise in property prices in this area is incredible given how much more beaten up and scruffy the place is now compared with 1960s.

Difficult to articulate but Chorlton has become Britain in microcosm. More ethnic, more lifestyle/youth orientated, more superficial, way more expensive.

urban hym

(Chorlton born and raised)

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The "high" streets in Chorlton, Barlow Moor Road and Wilbraham Road have degenerated horribly in the last 10 years. If you were to strip out the "lifestyle" wine bars, cafes and estate agents there would be little left.

The staggering rise in property prices in this area is incredible given how much more beaten up and scruffy the place is now compared with 1960s.

Difficult to articulate but Chorlton has become Britain in microcosm. More ethnic, more lifestyle/youth orientated, more superficial, way more expensive.

urban hym

(Chorlton born and raised)

Have to agree my older neighbours can't believe what they've done to the place, but it's still a hell of a lot better than anywhere else round here, and I'm young and I like bars and restaurants on my doorstep.

The older locals call it Chorlton-scum-Hardy.

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Guest Mr Parry
I stopped looking at the price of my house in 2004, I have no idea what it is now. If it's the same or slightly less than it was then I'm still well in the black and in the last 6 years I've paid probably £30,000 off my loan.

I would be more worried though if I had bought recently. But again, if I've got a repayment mortgage, my job is in a secure-ish industry. Then why have I got to worry about negative equity? I know loads of older people who were underwater massively in the last crash and interest rates were at 15%!!

There will always be a lure in Chorlton because it's the only decent place to live inside the M60.

Well that's simply not true Mr Parry, all of what I mentioned is happening or has already happened.

Why pay a bank clerk £45k per annum in the City of London and £90 per square foot office space when you can halve that on a young scrote in Manchester spend £20k training them and save £60 per square foot on your offices to boot?

Same with the BBC and any other industry that needs to save money for that matter.

So it can't all be bad news then.

Why London has always been the centre of the world I do not know. About time it was spread about a bit!

This could be the way Britain finds efficiency again?

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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