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Major - "official Inflation Figures Could Not Be Trusted."

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Sir John poured scorn on the Prime Minister's claim that Britain was uniquely well-placed to weather the storm, claiming the public finances had been so badly mismanaged that there was no room for tax cuts or spending increases to jump-start the economy.I think we're going to be very close to recession, if not technically in recession, two quarters of negative growth,' he said,

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10...al-figures.html

CPI predictions for next week?

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CPI predictions for next week?
Major was quite good on the Marr programme, I thought. Funny to think history might view him much more kindly than either Blair or Brown given his dull & incompetent countenance as lampooned by Spitting Image etc.

I'm no expert, but I'd have to predict inflation has to be up, up, up. May 2007's CPI was 2.8 down from April's 2.5 on the back of weakening food, clothing, gas and electricity prices. So, assuming it works by losing the May 07 adjustments, I'd have to guess 3.6 for CPI and 4.6 for RPI for this month. What a difference a year makes. :o

edit: typo

Edited by Avon

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Major was quite good on the Marr programme, I thought. Funny to think history might view him much more kindly than either Blair or Brown given his dull & incompetent countenance as lampooned by Spitting Image etc.

I'm no expert, but I'd have to predict inflation has to be up, up, up. May 2007's CPI was 2.8 down from April's 2.5 on the back of weakening food, clothing, gas and electricity prices. So, assuming it works by losing the May 07 adjustments, I'd have to guess 3.6 for CPI and 4.6 for RPI for this month. What a difference a year makes. :o

edit: typo

Still haunted by visions of Major knocking off Edwina Currie..

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i'm on 3.7%

consensus is 3.6% but petrol was up 5% and british retail consortium survey said that yoy rate of food price inflation jumped another 1%...

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Help! Retraction of above guess as it was based on the absurd focus on the May-07 figures falling away. CPI for June 2007 was up again from 2.5 to 2.7. So I'd say the 12 months until end of June CPI would be more like 3.5. Still think RPI could be 4.6, but I guess it depends how they calculate mortgage costs. Can you emigrate to Noddy-land?

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http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article....mp;in_page_id=2

Inflation is running at its highest rate for 16 years as a result of soaring food and fuel prices, official figures for June will show this week.

Despite last week's decision by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee not to change the base rate - taken with advance knowledge of this week's data - the rise in the cost of living seems certain to have continued last month. In the 12 months to May, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.3%, compared with a rise of three% in the year to April, both well above the Government's target of 2%.

Forecasts are for another rise in the rate for the year to June. 'I am looking for 3.6%,' said Howard Archer of independent forecasting group Global Insight. Inflation, as measured by the CPI, was last at 3.6% in July 1992.

'By the fourth quarter it will be near four%,' said David Kern, economic adviser to the British Chambers of Commerce. 'Our view is that there is nothing that can be done about it.'

Peter Dixon, strategist at Commerzbank, said: 'We are looking for the CPI to have hit 3.5% in the year to June. It is going in the direction of four%. Mervyn King, Bank Governor, said it would breach 4% later in the year.'

Other factors pushing up the CPI, which is reported on Tuesday, include higher prices for books and foreign holidays.

The other main inflation measure, the Retail Prices Index (RPI), is higher still, rising at 4.3% in the year to May, from 4.2% in the year to April. Though the RPI is used as the benchmark for pay negotiations, figures on Wednesday are expected to show the increase in average earnings is failing to keep pace.

In February, March and April this year, the annual rate of earnings growth excluding bonuses was 3.9%, or 3.8% once bonuses were included.

'Immigration coupled with higher unemployment is keeping the lid on pay claims,' said Archer. Earnings growth in the public sector is running at 4.1% or 3.8% with bonuses included. In the private sector, earnings are rising at 3.8%.

In manufacturing the rise is 3.2% or 3.5% including bonuses, with rises running at 4.2% in service businesses. The relative fall in pay is putting pressure on living standards. In the first quarter of this year, real household disposable income --what is left after inflation, taxes and 'social contributions' such as pensions - fell one% on the previous quarter.

This is a marked change to previous years. Real household disposable income for the whole of 2007 rose 1.8% on the figure for 2006. Perhaps as a result, the number of people with a second job rose by 2.4% to 1.1m in the three months from February to April 2008 compared with the same period last year.

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To say it is out of touch implies that it is accidental. I would say it is deliberately misleading. How they can think it is a fair assessment of inflation to exclude food and gas is ridiculous. It is all just done to create a false sense of security. If they started running the real numbers on inflation, it would only fuel more panic in wall street and the economy would spiral even further out of control. Sadly, we have created a system that pretty much forces us to lie to stay afloat.

It is kind of like setting your alarm clock ahead 10 minutes. You know it isn't really 5:30, but you need to lie to yourself to be on time. ;)

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Major was quite good on the Marr programme, I thought. Funny to think history might view him much more kindly than either Blair or Brown given his dull & incompetent countenance as lampooned by Spitting Image etc.

I'm no expert, but I'd have to predict inflation has to be up, up, up. May 2007's CPI was 2.8 down from April's 2.5 on the back of weakening food, clothing, gas and electricity prices. So, assuming it works by losing the May 07 adjustments, I'd have to guess 3.6 for CPI and 4.6 for RPI for this month. What a difference a year makes. :o

edit: typo

I agree.

Its amazing how interesting some politicians can be when they can speak freely. Its good someone 'major' has finally said the CPI is nonsense. This is a big step toward getting to the root cause of the "bubble after bubble" economics we've had for 30 or 40 years. The expansion of the money supply.

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A big reason for falsifying the inflation figure is that many benefit payments are linked to it.

Can you imagine what would happen to Jobseekers' allowance - fifty something pounds a week - if the real cost of living showed that no one on benefits could afford to catch a train to an interview. (Rail fares up 11%.)

Then there's 'pension credit' - introduced to kick the over 60's off the unemployment statistics. You're washed up on £124 a week, despite a lifetime of working and paying taxes. (It's known as Labour's New Deal.)

These millions live below the official poverty line (£150 a week before housing costs) and the gap to survival is widening every day.

With such manipulation, this Labour Government has re-invented the Poverty Trap. Expect a renewed interest in Charles Dickens novels.

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the cpi and rpi will be whatever they want it to be.

until the people measure it, this won't be different.

it is possible that a website could be set up to measure it, but it'd rely on user involvement, and maybe now it's too late - one because the shit has alreadt started and two because the internet will soon be controlled (this forum may go for a start within 3-5 yrs).

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Still haunted by visions of Major knocking off Edwina Currie..

I can't remember now if that was spitting image or real life. I actualy liked major- he always looked to me like an accountant who had accidently taken a job working for the mafia- "come along now lads, we really must stop all this argy bargy with the machine guns- it's bad for business."

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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