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cartimandua51

Has Joe Public Cottoned On Yet?

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It occurred to me as I was reading the Sunday dose of doom and gloom that I'm a bit insulated against what the Joe Average actually thinks. Everyone at HPC knows that Armageddon is nigh (whether that is defined as a 20% fall in house prices at one end, or total social collapse and cave-living at the other); business news editors are pretty gloomy and downbeat, but what about the conversations in the local pub/wine bar/ greasy spoon / workplace canteen? Having retired a year or so ago, and being a non-drinker, I no longer get to earwig conversations the way I used to.

Anybody got a feeling for the zeitgeist that they'd like to contribute?

Edited by cartimandua51

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It occurred to me as I was reading the Sunday dose of doom and gloom that I'm a bit insulated against what the Joe Average actually thinks. Everyone at HPC knows that Armageddon is nigh (whether that is defined as a 20% fall in house prices at one end, or total social collapse and cave-living at the other); business news editors are pretty gloomy and downbeat, but what about the conversations in the local pub/wine bar/ greasy spoon / workplace canteen? Having retired a year or so ago, and being a non-drinker, I no longer get to earwig conversations the way I used to.

Anybody got a feeling for the zeitgeist that they'd like to contribute?

The consensus seems to be amongst friends, colleagues etc :

1) It's not a good time to move house

2) No one I know has raised concerns about negative equity (some hadn't thought about it until I mentioned it to them)

3) One of my friends commented that she might be able to move to a bigger house if things keep falling

I have one colleague with his own little BTL empire, that is just coming out of the denial stage and is now saying "it's a long term investment", which I have seen quoted in one of the lifecycle of a bubble type graphs (not the one here)

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The consensus seems to be amongst friends, colleagues etc :

1) It's not a good time to move house

2) No one I know has raised concerns about negative equity (some hadn't thought about it until I mentioned it to them)

3) One of my friends commented that she might be able to move to a bigger house if things keep falling

I have one colleague with his own little BTL empire, that is just coming out of the denial stage and is now saying "it's a long term investment", which I have seen quoted in one of the lifecycle of a bubble type graphs (not the one here)

The people from the pub I know with BTL properties (no big portfilios) seem to be happy to admit that prices have fallen. One takes the view that he won't sell and as long as rents stay ok there is no issue, the other is bit more concerned as is older and was looking at selling up to set aside moneys for retirement.

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AS far as I can read into the minds and opinions of others there is much denial going on.

Take my daughter ~ lives in a grand house worth she reckons about £600K ~ Will not credit her old dad with anything like a reasonable analysis when he points out that a correction is currently happening and a crash just around the corner ~ not just for houses but for the UK way of life.

She would prefer to think that the equity in her house is increasing when so obviously to me anyway the bubble has burst.

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AS far as I can read into the minds and opinions of others there is much denial going on.

Welcome (Newbie) and thx for the honesty regarding your offspring. There may be trouble ahead...

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If we do end up with 'total collapse and cave-dwelling', how many of us HPCers would cope well? Very few. Who'll be doing shardenfroyder then? (I'm too lazy to look up the proper German spelling)

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At work vague rumblings of less exotic holidays this year ( I'm laughed at for having holidays in Herefordshire), house price drops are happening to other people but won't affect them. But apart from that as nothing is mentioned in Hello magazine, Heat, Corrie St, Eastenders, Nuts etc it can't be that serious. Even the price of petrol is not commented on yet!

I work with people who would represent your average Brit so there is still a lot of pain to come yet. I shall await the first sqwark when they try to remortgage...

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My pub observations (and yes, I do so like to spend time there!) are that falling house prices are not a significant worry for the population in general at the moment. Yes, there is talk and anecdotal evidence of cancelled building plots illustrating the state of the economy. The most pressing chat seems to be of potential redundancy/ work drying up - many people in the building trade are very concerned.

Redundancy (or mortgage resets) leads directly to non-payment of mortgage, or less spare cash available, hence fewer visits to the pub and thus fewer conversations about house prices. Maybe falling house prices will never significantly reach pubs!

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The consensus seems to be amongst friends, colleagues etc :

1) It's not a good time to move house

2) No one I know has raised concerns about negative equity (some hadn't thought about it until I mentioned it to them)

3) One of my friends commented that she might be able to move to a bigger house if things keep falling

I have one colleague with his own little BTL empire, that is just coming out of the denial stage and is now saying "it's a long term investment", which I have seen quoted in one of the lifecycle of a bubble type graphs (not the one here)

Where I am located I hear about:

bankru

  • pcies and repossessions

  • people having to choose between the car and the food

  • people finally recognising that the housing market is falling

  • building sites stop construction

  • as I was turning a slow corner with the window down the other day I heard some people exchanging banter about not driving and not buying houses!

This doesn't come from HPC. Its real its happening and it already hurting and pinching. Eric's video should tell us why and who is to blame (thanks Eric)

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Yet again at work I heard "just bought, got a good deal, hope to make money in a couple of years, good fixtures and fittings left in etc etc" I have stopped responding. They know by my look what I think. People seem to be absorbing that things are bad GLOBALLY, but they can`t seem to relate the coming pain to themselves somehow? I think younger people have no concept what is around the corner, many older ones see the 70`s style problems appearing, but maybe somehow think that in the modern age there is a patch on the internet or something to fix everything? Noticed a housing story-line on Coronation St. The brainwashing is so overt that I`m afraid the sheeple deserve all they get for accepting it.

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Out with 6 friends last night (1 STR'd late 2005). All have changed their tune and accept a correction is here. One of them who is a credit control manager for a large international firm said "things are the worst I have ever known" and agrees this time the 1990's will seem like a picnic. She described the current conditions as "just horrible!!" but didn't want to go into detail, when I asked for the meat on the bones. 6 months ago she told me I was talking crap and that HP would simply stagnate :lol::rolleyes:

Edited by Buffer Bear

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In the pub last night the three men I was drinking with all understood that the market was falling hard. One was a renter, one a debt free owner and the third has a mortgage smaller than most car loans. None of them has a dog in the fight so they can all take a clear view unclouded by greed or emotion.

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At work vague rumblings of less exotic holidays this year ( I'm laughed at for having holidays in Herefordshire), house price drops are happening to other people but won't affect them. But apart from that as nothing is mentioned in Hello magazine, Heat, Corrie St, Eastenders, Nuts etc it can't be that serious. Even the price of petrol is not commented on yet!

I work with people who would represent your average Brit so there is still a lot of pain to come yet. I shall await the first sqwark when they try to remortgage...

At the Kings Cross fire in 1987 some people ran from the station telling others there was a fire. Many people who saw no flames continued to head for the down escalators. We know what happened next. :(

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I love bringing this subject up at work (and have been since last June). Everyone thought i was raving mad until New Year when the first seeds of doubt were sown about falling prices. Now everyone accepts house prices are falling but are still in TOTAL denial about just how far they will go. Its very difficult not to get angry when people who should know better are saying "it'll bounce back", "its just a blip" etc etc.

Its like seeing a hurricane heading for your island and someone saying "yes, but we'll have a lovely summer again".

YES, WE KNOW THAT, BUT HOW MUCH OF THE ISLAND WILL BE LEFT TO ENJOY THAT SUMMER, DUMBO.

Its also shocking how many of my friends and collegues are BTL's as well... either professional (have been doing it successfully for 15+ years), or amateur (just started a few years ago with one property MEW'd to buy the next one they now live in - because "you can't fail with property...".)

As said before on these forums though, it is becoming less and less acceptable to bring the subject up as you don't know how many people are already feeling the burn...

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I love bringing this subject up at work (and have been since last June). Everyone thought i was raving mad until New Year when the first seeds of doubt were sown about falling prices. Now everyone accepts house prices are falling but are still in TOTAL denial about just how far they will go. Its very difficult not to get angry when people who should know better are saying "it'll bounce back", "its just a blip" etc etc.

Its like seeing a hurricane heading for your island and someone saying "yes, but we'll have a lovely summer again".

YES, WE KNOW THAT, BUT HOW MUCH OF THE ISLAND WILL BE LEFT TO ENJOY THAT SUMMER, DUMBO.

Its also shocking how many of my friends and collegues are BTL's as well... either professional (have been doing it successfully for 15+ years), or amateur (just started a few years ago with one property MEW'd to buy the next one they now live in - because "you can't fail with property...".)

As said before on these forums though, it is becoming less and less acceptable to bring the subject up as you don't know how many people are already feeling the burn...

Yes, you never know who you are going to piss off because so many have been affected by the brainwashing ray. One thing is for sure though, big dangerous events are happening at lightening speed. We will not have to wait long to see where things are going, a lot of the denial will be gone by winter.

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People are waking up at long last but more to increased mortgage repayments, petrol and food - think house prices will be 30-40% down before they have even realised what's going on

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Nope not at all. I have a friend about to buy a newbuild 4 bedroomed house and they are getting a free mini with it. Pointed out to them that they a) don't need the mini. B) would be better off asking for a £11k cash discount. c) If they are so desperate to sell it that they are offering free cars see what else they will give you.

I suggested that they went back and said keep your car, here's a 25% less offer on the asking price. The reponse ? "Ooooh I wouldn't have the cheek, that's totally taking the piss".

Some people cannot be saved from themselves but it seems the message is taking some time to drip into the general public.

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I live in an island which is 70% dependent on British visitors for its income - word amongst my associates is generally that this is the quietest year anyone can remember, quiter even than the year following 9/11. It's going to be ugly....local property prices have stagnated and are starting to fall. So, UK HPC ripples are global (in other islands which depend almost entirely on USA visitors to make a living, similar things are being said due to USA HPC, so much so that governments are starting to panic)

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Remarkably bearish in the pub at the moment, general view that prices are totally insane (well, it's London, they are), and a surprising acceptance of the fact that they are only going one way - down.

Work rather more "it just cannot happen, London is special" in spite of the fact that one guy has "sold" his flat 3 times since January, only to find that the would be purchasers cannot actually get a mortgage on it.

One of my ex colleagues vastly amused me the other night by sitting in the pub and loudly declaring "My flat cannot lose any value because it's protected by some sort of special anti house price crash forcefield".

Literally! He was taking the p1ss, of course, I think he's pretty certain that his tiny one bedder in Old Kent Road on an I/O mortgage may not have been the smartest move he made in 2006.

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A place of work that I visit used to treat me like the village idiot thats because one of the young girls told me she was going to look at a flat to buy 4 months ago I told her not to, the boss told her not to listen to me houses always go up etc, now the poor wee bitch can't look at me in the eye saddled with 100k plus mortgage on a flat thats crashing in value. Funnily enough the boss is avoiding eye contact as well the rest think I'm a financial guru. :lol:

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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