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Laura

A Planner Knows Best On Mse

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I've posted the link to this MSE thread elsewhere (More Lie To Buy), but page two had this.

I started the challenge & this loon took me on :(

I know what to say to him, but the will to live is fading again. zzzzzzzz

LINK

"I've posted this elsewhere but in short there's a housing shortage. The population is not only growing but it's breaking up into smaller households. We're also likely to get more immigration, both legal and illegal, and even in an economic downturn many immigrants will probably stay for the long term.

The government has asked local authorities to allocate enough land for 3 million new homes by 2020, Even before the downturn housebuilders weren't keeping up with that demand and now housebuilding is grinding to a halt, the situation will get worse. The National Housing and Planning Advice Unit reckons even more homes are needed than the government thinks. Assuming these figures are correct, we will be facing a housing crisis in the near future and house prices will shoot up again and social housing and rented accommodation will become more important than ever. As a planner, I've no truck with this talk of prices being depressed for 20 years etc... Yes some areas will do better than others but generally prices will head up with a few years.

Let the counter arguments begin! "

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just post a link to this place.

has anyone seen a planner plan anything to a decent standard?

no, thought not.

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I've posted the link to this MSE thread elsewhere (More Lie To Buy), but page two had this.

I started the challenge & this loon took me on :(

I know what to say to him, but the will to live is fading again. zzzzzzzz

LINK

"I've posted this elsewhere but in short there's a housing shortage. The population is not only growing but it's breaking up into smaller households. We're also likely to get more immigration, both legal and illegal, and even in an economic downturn many immigrants will probably stay for the long term.

The government has asked local authorities to allocate enough land for 3 million new homes by 2020, Even before the downturn housebuilders weren't keeping up with that demand and now housebuilding is grinding to a halt, the situation will get worse. The National Housing and Planning Advice Unit reckons even more homes are needed than the government thinks. Assuming these figures are correct, we will be facing a housing crisis in the near future and house prices will shoot up again and social housing and rented accommodation will become more important than ever. As a planner, I've no truck with this talk of prices being depressed for 20 years etc... Yes some areas will do better than others but generally prices will head up with a few years.

Let the counter arguments begin! "

Just always ask whether rents have risen to match house prices. The answer is clearly no, indicates no shortgage of housing.

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furthermore, the 'demand' of the future was also based on continuing immigration. now that the country is up **** creek without a paddle this future immigration isn't going to happen - there just simply isn't the jobs or the welfare to accomodate it.

however, as always in the public sector, they put everything in place for the growth before the growth actually happens - hence masses of high rise towers of flats and newbuild housing.

there may have been a shortage if they have had held off until the predicted started actually happened. they didn't. now there is oversupply.

ask the planner exactly what he was planning for.

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If there's a shortage of houses why are there so many available to rent, or for that matter so many just empty. The myth of the house shortage is based on a government estimate of the rate of household formation made in 2001 which time has proved to be wildly innacurate. The trouble with many planners is that their core skill is interpreting and applying government instructions not planning. Its what they need to do to earn a living and has been since the Town and Country Planning Act 1947 introduced the current system.

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Round here "Planning Officer" = young tw*t with obscure degree and cr*p suit, who thinks the world owes him/her a living... :angry:

Who then realises the quickest way to riches is to be a total a*rsewipe for local scumbag developers, by playing dead and letting them get away with murder, but at the same time prove to their bosses how "hard" they are by penalising a family, with a young kid with cerebral palsy, who need a shed for the wheelchair (see other posting elsewhere.) :rolleyes:

Result - 100% guaranteed? They'll get a nice little "poacher turned gamekeeper" job in a couple of years, so they can have that little SL500 they always dreamed of.

Hey - well guess what??? GAME OVER and TOUGH SH*T - gold-plated index-linked pension straight out of the window, losers. All you get is our undying disrespect, and a place in the dole queue. Next time look up "values" (plural) in the dictionary, and you might learn something.

Well, that was refreshing and cathartic. And I didn't even get onto EA's :lol::lol:

Have a fab weekend one and all.

B

Edit to add; It's not a jealousy thing. I do like the SL500, but I prefer the version with four doors, so I can get my beautiful kids in, AND not look like a property developer with a small willy :lol:

Edited by buzzardo

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There are over 1 million unsold properties in Britain, and also there's the best part of 1 million empty properties that are not for sale.

Not all the unsold properties are empty, of course, while not all the empty properties are habitable. But that doesn't look like a housing shortage to me.

I do agree with the planner that I don't think we'll see a depressed housing market for 20 years. I think 2 - 3 years more likely.

Edited by blankster

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Awww, poor bloke. Someone in a marginally nicer suit who's 22 grades* above him has told him a Really Big Number, told him it's Important, and now he's to leverage (sorry, shoot me, shoot me, pleeaase) his core competance - an ordinary 2.2 in Film Studies and English at an ex-poly - against this complex and baffling problem. He's probably still have difficulty with the concept of "Percy Points at Porcelain", so give him a break, okay?

* There's something about public sector pay scales that puts me in mind of "Dungeons and Dragons" in cheap suits.

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Round here "Planning Officer" = young tw*t with obscure degree and cr*p suit, who thinks the world owes him/her a living... :angry:

Who then realises the quickest way to riches is to be a total a*rsewipe for local scumbag developers, by playing dead and letting them get away with murder, but at the same time prove to their bosses how "hard" they are by penalising a family, with a young kid with cerebral palsy, who need a shed for the wheelchair (see other posting elsewhere.) :rolleyes:

Result - 100% guaranteed? They'll get a nice little "poacher turned gamekeeper" job in a couple of years, so they can have that little SL500 they always dreamed of.

Some truth in that, the cosying up of planners to developers (for an easy life) is quite shocking. They seem to be choosy about which part of planning law they adhere too, and they certainly have no concept of the bigger picture (the economy stupid). Their decisions and recommendations often wreck communities.

Another one of those 'expert' roles where 'expertise' is somewhat lacking.

Anyway back to Laura's OP - 'The Housing Shortage'.

Empty Homes Agency states that there are some 840,000 vacant properies; over 1m if potential dwellings (e.g., above shops) are taken into account. Lots of threads on this...

Estate agents full of properties; we are not exactly tripping over people sleeping on the streets. Currently 15 properties to each buyer. Empty (BTL) apartments throughout the country. Immigration - they tended to share (high density occupancy); now in the downturn many will return home.

The govt Quango (NHPA) responsible for the 3m+ homes requirement, headed by Prof Nickell, who once stated that homes would cost 10x people's salary. Ridiculous. Their approach is linear (projections on graphs based on one set of data, ignoring the dynamics of the economic situation). A Quango driven by the political objectives of its paymaster.

If the demand (need) for all these home was real, builders would still be building them instead of mothballing or not going ahead with projects, or laying off staff. The boom was about supply and demand of credit, not the shortage of property.

Of course, more homes are needed for a growing population but the driver of the recent boom was credit and speculation, hence the problems now that the bubble has burst. Genuine affordablity was always the issue: until that is addressed, we can't know the true, undistorted picture.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
The population is not only growing but it's breaking up into smaller households.

So what's happened over the past 6 months? More single people getting married, more emigration/less immigration?

Have they finally discovered a way to make more land (that will be shortly be forgotten?).

:rolleyes:

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The Jury is out on the Govts RSS targets of x million props to be built over the next few years.

Even before the downturn there was some doubt as to whether all these properties were really needed, i think that someone in central govt belived that housing unaffordability was down to supply and demand, so we better force the planners to make more land available for housing.

On the supply side a reduction in house prices makes people think twice about the amount of housing they need, let alone the amount they can afford. I see a lot of underutilised bigger house coming onto the market as 50/60 year olds realise that they better sell sooner than later if their house is going to augment their pension.

Chas

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I've posted the link to this MSE thread elsewhere (More Lie To Buy), but page two had this.

I started the challenge & this loon took me on :(

I know what to say to him, but the will to live is fading again. zzzzzzzz

LINK

"I've posted this elsewhere but in short there's a housing shortage. The population is not only growing but it's breaking up into smaller households. We're also likely to get more immigration, both legal and illegal, and even in an economic downturn many immigrants will probably stay for the long term.

The government has asked local authorities to allocate enough land for 3 million new homes by 2020, Even before the downturn housebuilders weren't keeping up with that demand and now housebuilding is grinding to a halt, the situation will get worse. The National Housing and Planning Advice Unit reckons even more homes are needed than the government thinks. Assuming these figures are correct, we will be facing a housing crisis in the near future and house prices will shoot up again and social housing and rented accommodation will become more important than ever. As a planner, I've no truck with this talk of prices being depressed for 20 years etc... Yes some areas will do better than others but generally prices will head up with a few years.

Let the counter arguments begin! "

This type of argument does very little but illiustrate the posters severe lack of understanding of very basic economics.

I'll recap again for anyone who's missed this. Starting with the basics:

A house is an asset. That's not too difficult for most people to grasp, but this next part is where people go wrong:

Housing is the ongoing economic benefit that we derive from the asset, ie housing is an economic service derived from a house.

We consume housing services, not houses or flats or bricks or roof tiles.

In a simillar way a train provides transport (a service).

You don't need to own a train to have transport, and you don't need to own a house to have housing.

The value of the house is the net present value of the cashflows generated by the asset, so we use rents to determine the cost of the housing service.

If I have a house and I want to find the market value of the housing service it provides, then I place an ad and see how much rent I can get for the asset.

To find out how much the cost of housing has risen, look at the basket of goods tracked by the ONS.

Look at the inflation report, where it says "housing".

Even with the "housing shortgage", over time the cost of housing rises broadly in line with wages.

So if someone starts telling you all about the "housing shortage", and how prices are going to skyrocket, then just ask them to show you how the cost of housing has risen. Chances are they won't have the foggiest idea.

So unfortunately for many BTL idiots, using the "housing shortage" to explain the rise in prices is a load of nonsense.

But that won't stop fools from believing that.

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Round here "Planning Officer" = young tw*t with obscure degree and cr*p suit, who thinks the world owes him/her a living... :angry:

Who then realises the quickest way to riches is to be a total a*rsewipe for local scumbag developers, by playing dead and letting them get away with murder, but at the same time prove to their bosses how "hard" they are by penalising a family, with a young kid with cerebral palsy, who need a shed for the wheelchair (see other posting elsewhere.) :rolleyes:

Result - 100% guaranteed? They'll get a nice little "poacher turned gamekeeper" job in a couple of years, so they can have that little SL500 they always dreamed of.

Hey - well guess what??? GAME OVER and TOUGH SH*T - gold-plated index-linked pension straight out of the window, losers. All you get is our undying disrespect, and a place in the dole queue. Next time look up "values" (plural) in the dictionary, and you might learn something.

Well, that was refreshing and cathartic. And I didn't even get onto EA's :lol::lol:

Have a fab weekend one and all.

B

Edit to add; It's not a jealousy thing. I do like the SL500, but I prefer the version with four doors, so I can get my beautiful kids in, AND not look like a property developer with a small willy :lol:

I agree planners are tossers. Most have a crap degree in geography and politics and then do a 1 year conversion course. After that they spend their time looking down their noses at everyone else

I used to work in local government and comaprably paid professions are environmental health, trading standards and Building control. The difference is they have to do 3-4 year degree / diplomas and get their hands dirty - very dirty.

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I do agree with the planner that I don't think we'll see a depressed housing market for 20 years. I think 2 - 3 years more likely.

The triumph of hope over reality.

Banks won't be giving 100%, 5 x salary mortgages in the next 20 years.

In fact, once the recession kicks in properly, there will be old fashioned mortgage queues. The way we're headed at the moment, the housing market is going to virtually stop.

Who'll blink first to lend high multiples against falling assets?

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The triumph of hope over reality.

Banks won't be giving 100%, 5 x salary mortgages in the next 20 years.

In fact, once the recession kicks in properly, there will be old fashioned mortgage queues. The way we're headed at the moment, the housing market is going to virtually stop.

Who'll blink first to lend high multiples against falling assets?

"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomena" (famous monetary economist who's name I can't remember.

The banks effectively ramped the money supply by lending ludicrous multiples of income....it will happen again once the senior execs that get burned this time around have retired as bankers bonuses are based on up front fees received, not the credit worthiness of their loans....hence they have no interest in the long term outcome of their lending decisions once they have banked the bonuses.

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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