Will It Be Worse Than The 1990s, 1970s Or 1930s

[Oxfordite]

The news in the last few months has been particularly bleak, the last week has been almost unbeliveable. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...C-mostviewedbox

The views of people on HPC.co.uk are getting ever more apocalyptic and I just thought is might be good to see what we think now.

I've gone for worse than 1970s (but just slightly). 30 to 40% decline in house prices with the economy in and out of recession for a few years.

Edited July 11, 2008 by Oxfordite

[Guest Steve Cook]

The 1930s is going to be looked on as being a mere economic blip by comparison with what is about to hit this world.

House prices will be the least of our worries five years from now.

Can you not see the clouds gathering? Can you not hear the drums?

War will come

Edited July 11, 2008 by Steve Cook

[Guest Mr Parry]

The news in the last few months has been particularly bleak, the last week has been almost unbeliveable. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...C-mostviewedbox

The views of people on HPC.co.uk are getting ever most apocalyptic and I just thought is might be good to see what we think now.

I've gone for worse than 1970s. 30 to 40% decline in house prices will the economy in and out of recession for a few years.

Philly,

I went for "Worse than 1970's".

If it's 1930's style, you'll be sat in the same bowl of converted rice over here with me.

[symo]

1930's will be lighter in comparison. We have entered a new paradigm in unsecured lending and this will make the 70's look like a walk in the park.

[Oxfordite]

Philly,

I went for "Worse than 1970's".

If it's 1930's style, you'll be sat in the same bowl of converted rice over here with me.

what? treking in the jungle or canoeing up a river rather than communting in central London in mid winter? Doesn't sound so bad I imagine my house deposit would go quite far in a deflationary world.

[Minos]

The 1930s is going to be looked on as being a mere economic blip by comparison with what is about to hit this world.

House prices will be the least of our worries five years from now.

Can you not see the clouds gathering? Can you not hear the drums?

War will come

Fortunately (or not) it will all be a remote control war. People can perish in the comfort of their depreciating homes rather than on a battle field.

[Guest Mr Parry]

what? treking in the jungle or canoeing up a river rather than communting in central London in mid winter? Doesn't sound so bad I imagine my house deposit would go quite far in a deflationary world.

Your house deposit would buy you a 5 bed with 6 bathrooms and about 70 years off work.

I just don't understand why you want to live in the UK?

[steve99]

Your house deposit would buy you a 5 bed with 6 bathrooms and about 70 years off work.

I just don't understand why you want to live in the UK?

Whats the situation re living in Thailand? legal, financial etc, Would suit me as half way between family commitments in both UK and Aus + quite like the holidays weve had there.

[Guest barebear]

I was reading a story in the mail about the worst ever slums in Britain the old Nicol in the east end. They lived 10 to a room and a lot didnt even have a bed.Rooms were about 12 by 12. It was pulled down by the 30's and Shoreditch high st is now there.

It got me thinking why didnt they just leave and go and live in the country and kill rabbits etc to survive,surely that would have been better ?

I cant see it ever getting as bad again as the depression.

70's style recession maybe.

I voted worse than the 90's.

[Guest Winnie]

The frightening thing is that it will be nearer the 30s than the 70s. Big difference is that people in general were better behaved then and did not have cheap drugs, alcohol, racial tension, knife crime vogue, police not bothering to touch hoodies etc......

I can see some real social unrest ahead in the UK and I don't think the government or the police are in the least bit prepared. It is bad enough already - imagine during a vicious and deep winter recession.............

[the primitive]

The 1930s is going to be looked on as being a mere economic blip by comparison with what is about to hit this world.

House prices will be the least of our worries five years from now.

Can you not see the clouds gathering? Can you not hear the drums?

War will come

Seriously - why do you think this? It just seems way too apocalyptic. It will be a proper bad recession for sure, but the 1930s? I can just about see that it might be that bad again as a worst case, but you are saying that it will be much worse. I only ask because you are a poster who I would not normally bracket with the tin hat and beans brigade who are surely certifiable.

[Guest Mr Parry]

Whats the situation re living in Thailand? legal, financial etc, Would suit me as half way between family commitments in both UK and Aus + quite like the holidays weve had there.

One word: FUN!

VISA situation is not as easy as it used to be unless you are married. But if your married life's over anyway, so it don't matter.

Cannot own freehold land.

Best off renting - v.cheap now.

[Guest barebear]

The frightening thing is that it will be nearer the 30s than the 70s. Big difference is that people in general were better behaved then and did not have cheap drugs, alcohol, racial tension, knife crime vogue, police not bothering to touch hoodies etc......

I can see some real social unrest ahead in the UK and I don't think the government or the police are in the least bit prepared. It is bad enough already - imagine during a vicious and deep winter recession.............

People weren't better behaved then,what about the razor gangs of the 20's and 30's or the race course mafia,the sabine gang and such. London was a very frightening place then with slum housing,smog,diseases you name it.

Then the rising of the Nazi's in depression torn Germany,you can never say they were better behaved than people today.

[Guest Mr Parry]

People weren't better behaved then,what about the razor gangs of the 20's and 30's or the race course mafia,the sabine gang and such. London was a very frightening place then with slum housing,smog,diseases you name it.

Then the rising of the Nazi's in depression torn Germany,you can never say they were better behaved than people today.

Quite correct.

In the 70's there were the Mods and Teddy Boys.

I think Western countries have actually gone through a period of relative calm compared to previous decades.

Okay you've got hoodies . . . just give them a big hug and it'll all be okay.

[Oxfordite]

I was reading a story in the mail about the worst ever slums in Britain the old Nicol in the east end. They lived 10 to a room and a lot didnt even have a bed.Rooms were about 12 by 12. It was pulled down by the 30's and Shoreditch high st is now there.

It got me thinking why didnt they just leave and go and live in the country and kill rabbits etc to survive,surely that would have been better ?

I cant see it ever getting as bad again as the depression.

70's style recession maybe.

I voted worse than the 90's.

I agree. I think only armageddon could take us back to the living standards of the 1930s. What I had in mind in the question was the same decrease in prosperity from 1929 to 1933. Which would not mean soup kitchens for normal working people but, for example, second car ownership very uncommon, most people renting or in social housing, 15% unemployment, £50 for a second hand 40"plasma tv etc.

Edited July 11, 2008 by Oxfordite

[wickywackywoo]

The 1930s is going to be looked on as being a mere economic blip by comparison with what is about to hit this world.

House prices will be the least of our worries five years from now.

Can you not see the clouds gathering? Can you not hear the drums?

War will come

You make it sound so bad!

[insidetrack]

It will be like 1349 after the Black Death, only worse because we will all still be alive and wages wont have doubled like they did back then.

[cartimandua51]

I was reading a story in the mail about the worst ever slums in Britain the old Nicol in the east end. They lived 10 to a room and a lot didnt even have a bed.Rooms were about 12 by 12. It was pulled down by the 30's and Shoreditch high st is now there.

It got me thinking why didnt they just leave and go and live in the country and kill rabbits etc to survive,surely that would have been better ?

There was the same problem in the 1830s-ish when people left the land for the cities. Once you're off the land it takes a year's cycle to get things up and running again, and in the meantime you starve. And that's if you've got your own land - try doing it on someone else's & you are the one who's likely to get trapped or shot (especially in the days before the nanny state). The countryside simply wouldn't support that number of people - that's why they went to the cities in the first place, just as they do in the developing world now.

what they did do was thieve from surrounding more affluent neighbourhoods!

Edited July 11, 2008 by cartimandua51

[WiseBear]

The 1930s is going to be looked on as being a mere economic blip by comparison with what is about to hit this world.

House prices will be the least of our worries five years from now.

Can you not see the clouds gathering? Can you not hear the drums?

War will come

I hear them and they're getting louder.

Edited July 11, 2008 by WiseBear

[Guest barebear]

I hear them and they're getting louder.

There wont be a war,we cant afford it.

America will just tell Israel to cool it and not to get wound up by the Iranians.Exactly the same as when Iraq was sending scuds over there in the 90's,Israel was told not to get involved.

Sanctions and such against Iran and diplomacy will make Dinner jacket listen.

[Guest Steve Cook]

There wont be a war,we cant afford it.

America will just tell Israel to cool it and not to get wound up by the Iranians.Exactly the same as when Iraq was sending scuds over there in the 90's,Israel was told not to get involved.

Sanctions and such against Iran and diplomacy will make Dinner jacket listen.

Israel is turning up the heat at the behest of the Americans in order that the americans can sieze Iranian oil reserves by proxy.

The Iranians are performing missile tests publicly at this moment as a sabre rattling excercise to frighten the Americans off.

It wont work.

There will be war.

Edited July 11, 2008 by Steve Cook

[Oxfordite]

There wont be a war,we cant afford it.

America will just tell Israel to cool it and not to get wound up by the Iranians.Exactly the same as when Iraq was sending scuds over there in the 90's,Israel was told not to get involved.

Sanctions and such against Iran and diplomacy will make Dinner jacket listen.

I agree. Obama won't take America or allow Isreal into a new war. Politics is America is moving sharply to the left. Didn't that happen mid 1970s?

[Guest barebear]

Israel is turning up the heat at the behest of the Americans in order that the americans can sieze Iranian oil reserves by proxy.

The Iranians are performing missile tests publicly at this moment as a sabre rattling excercise to frighten the Americans off.

It wont work.

There will be war.

How do you know that ?

The americans could have used Israel to do the same to Iraq if that were the case.

[Tonkers]

The 90's was a walk in the park.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

Seriously - why do you think this? It just seems way too apocalyptic. It will be a proper bad recession for sure, but the 1930s? I can just about see that it might be that bad again as a worst case, but you are saying that it will be much worse. I only ask because you are a poster who I would not normally bracket with the tin hat and beans brigade who are surely certifiable.

I don't think it will be worse than the 1930s, some serious mistakes were made then and we do have the benefit of hindsight which will serve us well, even if things turn out differently this time. The 1930s could have been avoided, but the Central Bankers failed miserably then - though the excuse being they hadn't seen it like that before.

Some how I think the parallel is more like Japan. Japan's deflation was weird in one sense, the county didn't suddenly decay or start falling to pieces, it just seemed people had too much debt and less money to service the debt as things deflated and then just kept on deflating. Its almost as if the economy went into hibernation, or perhaps a better analogy is that it was sleeping off a very bad hangover. On the scale of hangerovers it was almost certain a 3 day special, not just a sore head the next day.

If drinking habits are indication of how a country booms and busts, then the UK could be in for a nasty time. Vomit on the roadside, a broken leg falling over a bollard, an ambulance to hospital to fix the leg and get a stomach pump, followed by a night in the cells as the hospital staff are assulted.