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jethrotull

Surrey

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House prices in Surrey seem to be split between leafy and commutable Surrey which still has massive house price inflation, versus the overcrowded or difficult to commute places that are falling in price.

The BBC's website is saying the leafy commuter boroughs are still shooting up for detached houses:

NAME AV PRICE (£) QUARTER ANNUAL SALES

Waverley £708,590 8.3% 24.9% 121

Epsom And Ewell £575,716 7.2% 22.7% 37

Reigate And Banstead £581,783 3.4% 13.5% 100

Mole Valley £612,183 -6.1% 11.1% 88

Spelthorne £489,081 11.2% 10.1% 43

Woking £601,396 5% 9.7% 76

Elmbridge £1,076,795 7.4% 9.3% 165

It seems like the house price crash is not yet happening in prime commuter land. Prices are down in the other areas, but why not commuter land? The SWT train service is worse with a new slower timetable and new smaller seats that commuters can't fit into. (The problem with train seats built for average people is that middle class office workers are much bigger than average - taller, better fed, and carrying a few extra pounds from their office and train sedentary lifestyle).

Anyone out there considered Surrey but found it too expensive, or considering moving out of Surrey? Where else would you go if you needed to get to Canary Wharf by 0730 five days a week?

Will the crash be smaller in prime commuter land or just as big as elsewhere?

Edited by jethrotull

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House prices in Surrey seem to be split between leafy and commutable Surrey which still has massive house price inflation, versus the overcrowded or difficult to commute places that are falling in price.

The BBC's website is saying the leafy commuter boroughs are still shooting up for detached houses:

NAME AV PRICE (£) QUARTER ANNUAL SALES

Waverley £708,590 8.3% 24.9% 121

Epsom And Ewell £575,716 7.2% 22.7% 37

Reigate And Banstead £581,783 3.4% 13.5% 100

Mole Valley £612,183 -6.1% 11.1% 88

Spelthorne £489,081 11.2% 10.1% 43

Woking £601,396 5% 9.7% 76

Elmbridge £1,076,795 7.4% 9.3% 165

It seems like the house price crash is not yet happening in prime commuter land. Prices are down in the other areas, but why not commuter land? The SWT train service is worse with a new slower timetable and new smaller seats that commuters can't fit into. (The problem with train seats built for average people is that middle class office workers are much bigger than average - taller, better fed, and carrying a few extra pounds from their office and train sedentary lifestyle).

Anyone out there considered Surrey but found it too expensive, or considering moving out of Surrey? Where else would you go if you needed to get to Canary Wharf by 0730 five days a week?

Will the crash be smaller in prime commuter land or just as big as elsewhere?

The SWT train service is bad but the areas that seem to be dropping more in your list above are those serviced by Southern Railways (Mole Valley, Reigate&Banstead) which has a much better service, direct Victoria or London Bridge (for CIty & Canary Wharf etc) and better quality trains.

I think Surrey (beyond the M25) will follow regional trends in this crash it will not be immune. Things in its favour though are it has a very diversified economy (Most people who live in Surrey do not commute to London for work), transport links are good, its a family-friendly place with low crime rates (?) the state-sector schools are still generally good, still some countryside left etc etc. The current spate of knife-crime & gang culture in London's banlieue will also be a positive for Surrey

Edited by skomer

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Hi there,

I've not looked at detached properties as usually out of my price range but I've been watching the "cheap end" in Elmbridge for a while now. We looked to by in 2006 but prices got so out of control. 2007 was a nightamare.

The good news is that the asking prices are falling in my range (275,000 - 375,000) for the past months and very little is selling. New build apartments are particularly hit. I'm disabled and ideally need to buy somewhere on one level.

I've got the Property bee addin installed so can see asking prices falling.

There was one block of flats in Cobham we looked at in 2007. The flat sold for £342K and another one has come on the market next door (same layout with a patio) and the asking price is £279,950.

There are now cottages and semis coming up in our price range that wouldn't appear before and for a little more I saw my first detached house.

Most of the asking prices are still delusionary. We are at a standoff with very little selling.

Edited by Flopsy

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Been keeping an eye on reigate, £400-£500K.

First quarter, lots on, all overpriced. (2007 +10% in book)

March/April.

Cubit & West started advertising "Price Ranges".

A few went under offer. Most back on again.

In the last two months, these are the sort of drops i've seen.

575-555-499

535-499

525-499

525-499-(under offer)-475

490-470-449

475-450

460-440

425-380

420-340 (poss repo)

Also, agents and even their head offices ringing my about a few repos

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House prices in Surrey seem to be split between leafy and commutable Surrey which still has massive house price inflation, versus the overcrowded or difficult to commute places that are falling in price.

Anyone out there considered Surrey but found it too expensive, or considering moving out of Surrey? Where else would you go if you needed to get to Canary Wharf by 0730 five days a week?

Will the crash be smaller in prime commuter land or just as big as elsewhere?

I don't think the BBC data is very representative. The first thing is they use Land Reg data, this is between 3 and 6 months behind all the other indexes.

Secondly, if you monitor all asking prices using property bee you'll see a different story, with drops between 10 and 25% across a range of houses.

I believe there has been a bit of filter effecting, ie the better properties are selling and therefore the average prices of completed sales may be higher, but on much lower volumes.

Currently there are over 2000 properties on at over £1m in the county and little prospect of most of these selling. In the last 8 years only 3287 properties have sold in the County for over £1m, so those 2000 properties are roughly equivalent to almost 5 year stock. Essentially it means it could take 5 years to clear the market at current rates - a long wait for some I think.

I also know one couple who have almost certainly lost £400-500k since August, having gone out with a bridging loan. Basically overpaid for the new house, but now can't sell the second. Neither are now worth what they were worth in August.

Seriously do get property bee, it is very helpful.

Edited by mikelivingstone

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I don't think the BBC data is very representative. The first thing is they use Land Reg data, this is between 3 and 6 months behind all the other indexes.

Secondly, if you monitor all asking prices using property bee you'll see a different story, with drops between 10 and 25% across a range of houses.

I believe there has been a bit of filter effecting, ie the better properties are selling and therefore the average prices of completed sales may be higher, but on much lower volumes. Currently there are over 2000 properties on at over £1m in the county and little prospect of most of these selling.

I also know one couple who have almost certainly lost £400-500k since August, having gone out with a bridging loan. Basically overpaid for the new house, but now can't sell the second. Neither are now worth what they were worth in August.

Seriously do get property bee, it is very helpful.

Overall the latest complete Land Reg data I have is for Jan-Mar, during this period the number of sales in Surrey fell to 1060, which is about half the normal rate. This last happened in 2005 when we had the false start, but I hear from friends in the trade that volumes are even lower now and that prices are 15% lower than August.

Edited by mikelivingstone

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Currently there are over 2000 properties on at over £1m in the county and little prospect of most of these selling. In the last 8 years only 3287 properties have sold in the County for over £1m, so those 2000 properties are roughly equivalent to almost 5 year stock. Essentially it means it could take 5 years to clear the market at current rates - a long wait for some I think.

Interesting comments.

Have just had a look at Sussex and around 600 listed at £1m and over (including some duplicates).

How do I find out how many years stock this is?

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Interesting comments.

Have just had a look at Sussex and around 600 listed at £1m and over (including some duplicates).

How do I find out how many years stock this is?

I used www.houseprices.co.uk and then ranked by price. I then just kept clicking until I got to £999k.

Although in some ways this is not totally representative (more homes are now worth over £1m than were in 2002 for example) I don't think wages are up by anywhere near as much, so actually its not a bad indicator, i.e. if only 3287 odd people could afford a £1m+ house in eight years, how long would it take to shift 2000 homes at that price does seem like a reasonable question.

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Interesting comments.

Have just had a look at Sussex and around 600 listed at £1m and over (including some duplicates).

How do I find out how many years stock this is?

Actually, to answer the real question, I just did the ranking, here is the extract from the boundary between £1m and £999k, the site helps as it numbers each entry:

Sale Date Price Type Tenure New Build Map Address

651 12/12/2007 £1,000,000 Det. F No Map 30, Buckingham Road, Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex, BN43 5UB

652 21/02/2008 £1,000,000 Det. F No Map Coopersfield, West Ashling, Chichester, West Sussex, PO18 9DH

653 08/02/2008 £1,000,000 Det. F No Map Dovecot Farm, Nutley, Uckfield, East Sussex, TN22 3HE

654 30/04/2008 £1,000,000 Det. F No Map Crowlink, Rotten Row, Lewes, East Sussex, BN7 1TN

655 13/06/2003 £999,999 Det. F No Map Blaydens, Rotherfield Lane, Mayfield, East Sussex, TN20 6ET

656 10/03/2008 £999,000 Det. F No Map Maregate, Mare Hill Road, Pulborough, West Sussex, RH20 2DS

657 06/09/2002 £995,000 Det. F No Map Abbey Lea, Bardown Road, Stonegate, Wadhurst, East Sussex, TN5 7EL

658 13/09/2002 £995,000 Det. F Yes Map 14, Hurst Park, Midhurst, West Sussex, GU29 0BP

659 21/07/2005 £995,000 Det. F No Map Mapleswood, Old Willingdon Road, Friston, Eastbourne, East Sussex, BN20 0AT

So the answer is 654 properties sold in Sussex between 2000 (this is the first year in the data at houseprices.co.uk) and 2008.

So to put it mildly, it looks like Sussex has approximately 8 years worth of housing stock for sale!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edit: correct 655 to 654

Edited by mikelivingstone

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Here is a graph for Surrey that I posted on the main forum looking at the number of houses currently on offer (primelocation) versus the average annual sales rate over the last 8 years.

As you can see from the graph, if you are trying to sell houses in the £800k-£900k bracket you are going to have a long wait, the number of properties for sale currently is nearly double the average annual sales volume over the last 8 years. Either people will have to take their homes off the market, or they'll have to drop the price to the point at which someone might buy it. Basically they stand very little chance of selling and that is against the average sales volume over the last 8 years, I could argue volumes are even lower now, so instead of 2 years it could take 4 years tjust to clear the market.

The picture gets even worse for homes over £1m. At £1m-1.25m there is 2 years stock, and for £1.5m+ there is 6 years stock.

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I agree prices are taking longer to correct, but I am looking on the borders between suburban South London and the Surrey towns, and I think that prices are starting to shift, albeit later than other places nearer London. There are a lot of places that have been sticking for months and months.

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I agree prices are taking longer to correct, but I am looking on the borders between suburban South London and the Surrey towns, and I think that prices are starting to shift, albeit later than other places nearer London. There are a lot of places that have been sticking for months and months.

Agreed. I've just been sent a house in Guilford town centre that was on at £1.8m. Down to £1m.

Needs a truck load of work, so doesn't really appeal. I think the meltdown is now starting in west Surrey.

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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