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160,000 House Building Jobs May Go

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From the Brickonomics Blog on ContractJournal.com, posted yesterday:

Media plays down housing crisis — 160,000 house building jobs to go

What's going to be left?

That will definitely spread. Builders are generally loaded, and like to splash their cash - will be bad news for travel agents, luxury car dealers and the high street generally. VAT take will also be down - probably little effect on income tax receipts tho given that they deal in cash most of the time.

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Again i must readdress my 2 issues

1/ Where has all the profits gone from the last 10 year boom???

2/ The Government needs o keep the building market strong for future projections. We still need houses built.

If the Government fails to keep housebuilding at at least its current levels then it will turn into an OPEC situation where they only build enough to create a demand again and able to sell for very high prices like what is happening to oil.

There should always be an oversupply of houses...

And definately the Government need to do more to crack down on multiple house ownership.

Esp. BTL and holiday homes which give such generous perks to the owners.

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Why dont developers simply slash the asking prices by 30%+ if they really want to have a go at getting the housing market moving again?

When the massive reduction in property sales is mentioned in the news they treat it like some strange mystery and seem almost shocked/surprised that house prices are starting to fall

In fact the 'elephant in the room' as we all know is that house prices are massively inflated so the sooner they come down the better

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Again i must readdress my 2 issues

1/ Where has all the profits gone from the last 10 year boom???

2/ The Government needs o keep the building market strong for future projections. We still need houses built.

If the Government fails to keep housebuilding at at least its current levels then it will turn into an OPEC situation where they only build enough to create a demand again and able to sell for very high prices like what is happening to oil.

There should always be an oversupply of houses...

And definately the Government need to do more to crack down on multiple house ownership.

Esp. BTL and holiday homes which give such generous perks to the owners.

Maybe it's developers who have made all the dosh - Think about it, they convert a big old house into flats then sell each flat for about the price the entire house used to cost!

Then it's the likes of FTB's or even BTLers who paid for it

IMO at the moment lots of new BTLers will not be in a situation where they have any generous perks at all! :lol:

But I agree they should be made to pay all the tax they owe

Edited by peepers

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Why dont developers simply slash the asking prices by 30%+ if they really want to have a go at getting the housing market moving again?

When the massive reduction in property sales is mentioned in the news they treat it like some strange mystery and seem almost shocked/surprised that house prices are starting to fall

In fact the 'elephant in the room' as we all know is that house prices are massively inflated so the sooner they come down the better

First time I've seen a HPC, so not certain on this, but I suspect that it's not quite as simple as that. On the way up, people continued to buy right to the very top. They looked at 10 years of rises, combined TV shows and the press, and assumed that prices would keep rising. People were buying even when prices started to flatten out. It took an external jolt to get people to stop buying. If the banks still loaned silly multipliers, people would keep on buying.

Now we've got the opposite. Prices are in free fall, the media are all over it, no-one is buying. Won't it be the same on the way down? Even when people see prices flatten out, they still won't buy as they think they could drop further. People may have visions of the house you can buy with a credit card, and hold out. If builders suddenly slashed their prices by 40%, people would hold on to see the next 40%. Not sure what would make people buy again.

I'm sure some of the more experienced people on here could pick holes in and correct the above :-)

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First time I've seen a HPC, so not certain on this, but I suspect that it's not quite as simple as that. On the way up, people continued to buy right to the very top. They looked at 10 years of rises, combined TV shows and the press, and assumed that prices would keep rising. People were buying even when prices started to flatten out. It took an external jolt to get people to stop buying. If the banks still loaned silly multipliers, people would keep on buying.

Now we've got the opposite. Prices are in free fall, the media are all over it, no-one is buying. Won't it be the same on the way down? Even when people see prices flatten out, they still won't buy as they think they could drop further. People may have visions of the house you can buy with a credit card, and hold out. If builders suddenly slashed their prices by 40%, people would hold on to see the next 40%. Not sure what would make people buy again.

I'm sure some of the more experienced people on here could pick holes in and correct the above :-)

In reality I expect it will be a long process - But as the writing is on the wall some of them could try to hit the bottom sooner! Just a tongue-in-cheek suggestion.. my attempt at being like an economist who suggested it could be beneficial to pay people to dig holes and fill them in

Edited by peepers

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First time I've seen a HPC, so not certain on this, but I suspect that it's not quite as simple as that. On the way up, people continued to buy right to the very top. They looked at 10 years of rises, combined TV shows and the press, and assumed that prices would keep rising. People were buying even when prices started to flatten out. It took an external jolt to get people to stop buying. If the banks still loaned silly multipliers, people would keep on buying.

Now we've got the opposite. Prices are in free fall, the media are all over it, no-one is buying. Won't it be the same on the way down? Even when people see prices flatten out, they still won't buy as they think they could drop further. People may have visions of the house you can buy with a credit card, and hold out. If builders suddenly slashed their prices by 40%, people would hold on to see the next 40%. Not sure what would make people buy again.

I'm sure some of the more experienced people on here could pick holes in and correct the above :-)

As somone who remebers the early 90s well, I think you may well be right.

IMO people base their perceptions on their past experience, this is entirely rational.

But many people only have a short and selective memory, so their rationale is incomplete. This works both ways with house prices, most people's perceptions will be determined by their most recent and most dramatic experiences

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Guest Mr Parry
Again i must readdress my 2 issues

1/ Where has all the profits gone from the last 10 year boom???

2/ The Government needs o keep the building market strong for future projections. We still need houses built.

If the Government fails to keep housebuilding at at least its current levels then it will turn into an OPEC situation where they only build enough to create a demand again and able to sell for very high prices like what is happening to oil.

There should always be an oversupply of houses...

And definately the Government need to do more to crack down on multiple house ownership.

Esp. BTL and holiday homes which give such generous perks to the owners.

Dellboy,

Bang on what you say, but on a personal level, get yourself down to the local technical college. Do a night class in General Building. Learn the basics of Planning Permission and in a few years when land prices on on their ****, get a plot and build yourself.

At least you'll know it won't fall down, which is what a lot of the crap that's been thrown up in the last boom will be doing in the next 10-15 years.

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Enjoyed the article. I've been wondering about this quite a lot recently. I imagine that the big builders don't actually employ construction workers (brickies, chippies etc), but rather they are full of quantity surveyors, sales agents, PRs, site inspectors, project managers, accounting, finance and personnel staff.

I haven't yet seen news about subcontracting firms shedding jobs. As most of them are going to be smaller businesses who in turn subcontract to smaller fish and self-employed workers they are going to be less newsworthy.

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Again i must readdress my 2 issues

1/ Where has all the profits gone from the last 10 year boom???

I would guess that quite a bit has gone into buying up crazily over-priced land with PP for yet more 'luxury' hamster-cage flats.

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Hopefully quite few less Poles for starters

And as a concequence less demand for rentals.

The whole thing seemed to be on a positive feedback loop right up to sometime last year, seems like the negative is going to be self fulfilling now too.

This is all going to end in tears. If only Mr Brown had stuck to his "I will not let house prices get out of control" speach back in 1997 things would be looking a great deal healthier now if he had.

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Dellboy,

Bang on what you say, but on a personal level, get yourself down to the local technical college. Do a night class in General Building. Learn the basics of Planning Permission and in a few years when land prices on on their ****, get a plot and build yourself.

At least you'll know it won't fall down, which is what a lot of the crap that's been thrown up in the last boom will be doing in the next 10-15 years.

Yes this is great advice, I am seriously thinking of doing this.

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Why dont developers simply slash the asking prices by 30%+ if they really want to have a go at getting the housing market moving again?

When the massive reduction in property sales is mentioned in the news they treat it like some strange mystery and seem almost shocked/surprised that house prices are starting to fall

In fact the 'elephant in the room' as we all know is that house prices are massively inflated so the sooner they come down the better

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/work...nch/5170354.stm

Check out yesterdays Working Lunch, t*sser from building industry, mentioned a hundred and one ways to get the market rolling again, except of course the big one, price!. What this guy needs is a good fornicating in the bottom.

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Guest Mr Parry
Yes this is great advice, I am seriously thinking of doing this.

Fudgey baby!

Just don't do it in the UK.

It's boring there, mate.

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Fudgey baby!

Just don't do it in the UK.

It's boring there, mate.

Is there such a course as 'House Building'. i thought that would be a bit too generic. Wouldnt i need to do:

plumbing

Joinery

bricklaying

electrician

Architecture

housebuilding fundementals

Might take me a couple of decades to get my apprenticeship in all those areas....

Might just buy land and make a bomb shelter instead.

Man, ive been watching far too much resident evil. The Hive.

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Fudgey baby!

Just don't do it in the UK.

It's boring there, mate.

Unfortunately I have to much family in the UK to be able to move abroad, particularly elderly parents or I

would consider South of France or Canada.

No a small bit of land in the UK would suit me perfect and build my own house.

How difficult can it be? :o

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Enjoyed the article. I've been wondering about this quite a lot recently. I imagine that the big builders don't actually employ construction workers (brickies, chippies etc), but rather they are full of quantity surveyors, sales agents, PRs, site inspectors, project managers, accounting, finance and personnel staff.

I haven't yet seen news about subcontracting firms shedding jobs. As most of them are going to be smaller businesses who in turn subcontract to smaller fish and self-employed workers they are going to be less newsworthy.

I haven't seen any news about this until this morning in the Guardian

Housing slump puts 250,000 jobs at risk

Here's the first two paragraphs

Up to 250,000 people whose jobs are linked to the building industry could be put out of work if the housing downturn continues, according to industry trade body the House Builders Association.

About 100,000 people directly involved in the industry are set to lose their livelihoods, the association said, with 150,000 more threatened if conditions worsen.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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