Lbc 97.3

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

I was listening to LBC 97.3 with James Hartigan and Petrie Hosken on the way home today.

An economics discussion around house prices ensued and the invited pundit suggested actual prices were already down 25% and that most people homes were worth a lot less than they thought they were; this being apparent to anyone trying to sell a house at the moment - clearly the indexes are lagging and haven't reflected the actual falls people are seeing.

That was all good bear food, and was only spoilt by the calming of the sheep at the end:

"I wouldn't worry too much about talk about 35% fall. In the 1990s prices fell by around 25%, and I think we are there already. So I don't think it will get much worse."

Time to pile in me thinks!

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

I was listening to LBC 97.3 with James Hartigan and Petrie Hosken on the way home today.

An economics discussion around house prices ensued and the invited pundit suggested actual prices were already down 25% and that most people homes were worth a lot less than they thought they were; this being apparent to anyone trying to sell a house at the moment - clearly the indexes are lagging and haven't reflected the actual falls people are seeing.

That was all good bear food, and was only spoilt by the calming of the sheep at the end:

"I wouldn't worry too much about talk about 35% fall. In the 1990s prices fell by around 25%, and I think we are there already. So I don't think it will get much worse."

Time to pile in me thinks!

James Max won't be happy...

[eric pebble]

"I wouldn't worry too much about talk about 35% fall. In the 1990s prices fell by around 25%, and I think we are there already. So I don't think it will get much worse."

Time to pile in me thinks!

Yeah --- Japan --- Down 90% in the early 1990s - - and STILL THERE!!

[Guest mSparks]

<begin spoof>

Gordon Brown asked me to write a report in 1996 on how to replicate the Japanese financial crisis

I said it would cost 50 billion squillion quid

do you think someone said they would do it for less?

<end spoof>

[Guest Bart of Darkness]

and I think we are there already. So I don't think it will get much worse

The pattern of denial:

• Prices only ever go up by 10-20% a year

• Prices will keep going up, but not by as much

• Prices will flatten out (soft landing)

• Prices will fall, but only by a few percent

• It's just a temporary blip

And now we have "falls of 25% are all we'll see".

Anyone have any more confidence in this latest comfort blanket prediction than in any of the rest?

[Guest Steve Cook]

The pattern of denial:

• Prices only ever go up by 10-20% a year

• Prices will keep going up, but not by as much

• Prices will flatten out (soft landing)

• Prices will fall, but only by a few percent

• It's just a temporary blip

And now we have "falls of 25% are all we'll see".

Anyone have any more confidence in this latest comfort blanket prediction than in any of the rest?

nope

We are looking at 50% falls....minimum

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

The pattern of denial:

• Prices only ever go up by 10-20% a year

• Prices will keep going up, but not by as much

• Prices will flatten out (soft landing)

• Prices will fall, but only by a few percent

• It's just a temporary blip

And now we have "falls of 25% are all we'll see".

Anyone have any more confidence in this latest comfort blanket prediction than in any of the rest?

Bart, the denial pattern is fascinating.

Now that the housing stats have come in like a baseball bat hitting the pundits, the pundits no longer deny the existence of baseball bats.

The new mantra is that yes we have have been hit by a baseball bat, it hurt a bit, but we're still standing and there will be no more whacking.

What they don't see is the gang of baseball bat wielding thugs coming round the corner. What will they say next?

Edited July 11, 2008 by mikelivingstone

[The Colour]

Is that knob Henk Potts still as smug as usual on Nick Ferrari? I'd love to see that man in tears.

[Ah-so]

Is that knob Henk Potts still as smug as usual on Nick Ferrari? I'd love to see that man in tears.

Yep - he is at some golfing event today.

I think that Petrie Hoskins woman is a bit po-faced. Luckily I never listed to the radio when she is on.

[Guest barebear]

I was talking to someone in his one bedroom ex council flat in Dartford. He thought it was worth 140 k. He bought it for 70k in 2002. I mentioned the crash and that places like his would suffer big time and probably lose 50%. He couldnt see how or why. I said you paid too much for it at 70k. Its a horrible ex council block in a pig rough area with still plenty of our council friends residing there. I said 50k would still be too expensive for it.

He was in total denial.I think the general concensus is that this is a blip that will last a year or so then we'll be back to 10-20% increases.Besides theres the olympics and he hoped he could rent it out to the Nigerian embassy.After pissing my self laughing I said yeh but its only on for 4 weeks then they all go home again.

He was hoping to sell it for at least half a million in about 10 years to a first time buyer earning 150k.

I asked him if he wanted to buy my watch for 10k.

[contractor]

I was listening to LBC 97.3 with James Hartigan and Petrie Hosken on the way home today.

These two are the reason I now listen to Radio 4 on the way home.

[SHERWICK]

I was talking to someone in his one bedroom ex council flat in Dartford. He thought it was worth 140 k. He bought it for 70k in 2002. I mentioned the crash and that places like his would suffer big time and probably lose 50%. He couldnt see how or why. I said you paid too much for it at 70k. Its a horrible ex council block in a pig rough area with still plenty of our council friends residing there. I said 50k would still be too expensive for it.

He was in total denial.I think the general concensus is that this is a blip that will last a year or so then we'll be back to 10-20% increases.Besides theres the olympics and he hoped he could rent it out to the Nigerian embassy.After pissing my self laughing I said yeh but its only on for 4 weeks then they all go home again.

He was hoping to sell it for at least half a million in about 10 years to a first time buyer earning 150k.

I asked him if he wanted to buy my watch for 10k.

Only 10k??!? Surely someone with as much financial acumen as your firend, with as much equity, would offer 20k!

[Realistbear]

nope

We are looking at 50% falls....minimum

.... me! I think I had better revisit my 50-60% drop forecast!

[Darkman]

"I wouldn't worry too much about talk about 35% fall. In the 1990s prices fell by around 25%, and I think we are there already. So I don't think it will get much worse."

That has to be the most warped logic I've heard so far. Simply dumb.

[TeddyBear]

At least those two presenters criticise hpi a lot, unlike James property developer Max and James I bought a million pound house in Chiswick at the top of the market shitting myself O'Brien

[kool4caats]

I can't stand James and Petrie. Shame Nick Abbot's not on earlier, as has a much better view on things IMO.

[Sarah Beeny!]

I can't stand James and Petrie. Shame Nick Abbot's not on earlier, as has a much better view on things IMO.

Agreed re Nick Abbot. I'd be stunned if he does not read/post on this site, most nights he sounds like a radio version of hpc.co.uk.

[Thread Killer]

Bart, the denial pattern is fascinating.

Now that the housing stats have come in like a baseball bat hitting the pundits, the pundits no longer deny the existence of baseball bats.

The new mantra is that yes we have have been hit by a baseball bat, it hurt a bit, but we're still standing and there will be no more whacking.

What they don't see is the gang of baseball bat wielding thugs coming round the corner. What will they say next?

What did they say last time? As in what did the VI's say at the bottom of the tech crash, the last HPC, the bottom of the great depression, the tulips. When we reach the true bottom do they say anything significant?

[Justice]

.... me! I think I had better revisit my 50-60% drop forecast!

I quoted 40% a few years ago and few here would listen and said it was too much but now i revised it up to a full blown meltdown so god knows what the percentage will be.

In real terms what part do you think will come from Inflation to soak up the loss and how much do you think GBP will devalue and what do you think will come off the asking price ?

A lot of people are going to be very unhappy soon IMHO and it will do no good thinking the Con's will save the day as all parties are in bed togeather and will continue to reduce freedoms and increase taxes whilst sheeple sit back and let them.