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sealaw2000

I Am Not Seeing Any Price Falls

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Hate to p**s on the bonfire, but I can honestly say that I am not seeing any price falls in my area (N/E outer London). In fact, the houses that are coming on seem to be at even more aspirational prices than this time last year. I appear to be in a genuinley "crash immune" area. This crash is rubbish :angry: :angry: :angry:

Edited by sealaw2000

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Hate to p**s on the bonfire, but I can honestly say that I am not seeing any price falls in my area (N/E outer London). In fact, the houses that are coming on seem to be at even more aspirational prices than this time last year. I appear to be in a genuinley "crash immune" area. This crash is rubbish :angry: :angry: :angry:

I have to admit, i find it hard to see price falls at the moment.

I know it is happening, but it just isn't much evidence locally yet.

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Hate to p**s on the bonfire, but I can honestly say that I am not seeing any price falls in my area (N/E outer London). In fact, the houses that are coming on seem to be at even more aspirational prices than this time last year. I appear to be in a genuinley "crash immune" area. This crash is rubbish :angry: :angry: :angry:

I had an argument with someone about this the other day. You need to remember that asking prices mean nothing right now. 18 months ago you could put in an asking price and expect to get multiple bidders and probably get 10% over what you asked. Now, you can put in a silly asking price but may well only get offers of 15%-20% below what you asked. The market will take time to unravel but personally I think London is the most overpriced area and will see the biggest falls. Net migration into London has been negative for over a year and it will only increase as the City boys lose their jobs. London is actually a sh1t place to live and most people I know want to move out of London ASAP. It will take time for the deluded to lower their asking prices, but you'll find people are already accepting below asking price offers if they really want to sell.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
Hate to p**s on the bonfire, but I can honestly say that I am not seeing any price falls in my area (N/E outer London). In fact, the houses that are coming on seem to be at even more aspirational prices than this time last year. I appear to be in a genuinley "crash immune" area. This crash is rubbish :angry: :angry: :angry:

Get back on your boat and do a bit more bumming for a few months while it gets going properly.

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So you are telling me there are no price reductions in Enfield? Walthamstow?

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Well, I have decided to use net house prices to hunt for local price drops. I have searched for property sold in the last month and compares prices against a previous sale.

Sold In Last 2 Months Price (Date)/ Previous Sale Price (date)

£250,000 (9th may '08) / 229,500 (18th March '05) 6 Abbots Crescent, PE11 1NB

£95,000 (8th May '08) / £89,000 (6th Feb '06) 48a Carrington Road, PE11 1LY

£280,000 (May '08) / £280,000 (May 07) 122 Spalding Road,, PE11 3UE

So a mixed bag.

But there really isn't much selling - this makes it harder to find the price falls. I think over the next few months it will be easier. No good looking in EA's windows, you need to compare sold prices.

The last one is interesting, it shows no gain between 07 and 08. Which is basically where the YoY was 0% when the sale would have been agreed, or maybe even while it was still going up.

Bet they wish they had gazundered now!

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asking prices (rightmove) - are higher than last year, infact asking prices have been rising since December so your more likely to have seen rising prices on right move/property press

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/pdf/p/hpi/House...3rdJune2008.pdf

mortgage Approvals - Nationwide/Halifax figures are based on successful applicants applying for mortgages. People are getting smaller mortgages, and less people are successful and these figures are down

Selling prices (Land registry) - These are collected up to 3 months after a sale so there is a bit of a lag, these figures are levelish

the biggest/only notable price falls are in the headline nationwide/Halifax mortgage approval figures, but clearly if people are struggling to get mortgages they will eventually appear in LR figures, and rightmove figures when sales take place, and sellers wake up to buyers offering less..

Use this website to see all the figures on one graph, the top three levelish lines are right move asking price, Land registry selling price, and the ft selling price indexes, the falling lines are HBOS/Nationwide

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/graphs/

BOOTNOTE : a similar thing happened from 04->06, asking prices rose but selling prices/approval figures levelled off and fell is some place, but everyone through the market was level.... this time the mortgage vfigures have fallen off a cliff but everything else has stayed level, this time 'falling' house prices are big news but in 'sales' terms they haven't fallen yet :blink:

Edited by moosetea

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To the OP: You're looking at asking prices.

Asking prices have been nothing more than a fantasy in recent months.

Example:

My brother phoned me very excited last week to say he's had his house valued and the EA said it was worth 25% more than 2 years ago.

I congratulated him.

What I didn't say was that EA valuations are entirely fictional in a non-functioning market.

I also refrained from telling him that if he actually wants to know what somebody will pay for his house, I suggest he puts it up for auction.

Why upset him? It's not as if he's looking to buy more property and needs a reality check.

Edited by Selling up

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Why do people expect all property of all types to fall in all areas at the same rate?????

Look at previous crashes. It just has never happened like that. Some places dropped 50%, some hardly moved price at all.

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No house prices are lower, its not reflective in adverts, thats all good as long as the window price doesnt drop the longer this drama continues. Eas will come to learn that cheaper houses prices means more selling.

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NE london, asking prices for 3 bed homes are down to 240-250k

last year it was closer to the 280-290 asking.

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If you live in the South of England ring a car dealer in the North and ask for a valuation, then drive your car the 700miles and realise that the price you got on the phone for a rough estimate, is now 25% less having looked over it and the money is on the table.

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Hate to p**s on the bonfire, but I can honestly say that I am not seeing any price falls in my area (N/E outer London). In fact, the houses that are coming on seem to be at even more aspirational prices than this time last year. I appear to be in a genuinley "crash immune" area. This crash is rubbish :angry: :angry: :angry:

I am seeing a similar state in West London - there were quite a few reductions in April and May, but since then hardly anything has been reduced. Guess vendors are reluctant to cut any further. Also new properties are still coming to the market at rediculous valuations.

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Hate to p**s on the bonfire, but I can honestly say that I am not seeing any price falls in my area (N/E outer London). In fact, the houses that are coming on seem to be at even more aspirational prices than this time last year. I appear to be in a genuinley "crash immune" area. This crash is rubbish :angry: :angry: :angry:

I'm seeing the same here in the East Midlands.

Mind you, it's only the new sales coming onto the market that are at ridiculous prices...maybe they are anticipating a summer bounce? Those houses that have been around since early last year are starting to either be withdrawn from sale or coming down in price.

I reckon for some reason the EAs are determined not to be the first to acknowledge a crash is happening even if that means ignoring the vendor's request to advertise it at less in the hopes of a sale.

I'm assuming they're doing their best to talk housesellers to rent out their property (through their letting agency side of course) in the meantime.

Either way everything is just stagnating.

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Hate to p**s on the bonfire, but I can honestly say that I am not seeing any price falls in my area (N/E outer London). In fact, the houses that are coming on seem to be at even more aspirational prices than this time last year. I appear to be in a genuinley "crash immune" area. This crash is rubbish :angry: :angry: :angry:

Absolutely. Just discovered the estate agent in the High Street who I thought had given up and shut up shop has, in fact, taken 4 shops on the other side of the road - such is the demand for their services.

House prices too. Everything's up, selling like hot cakes.

You need to be a bit more discriminating. Stuff here is still coming on over-priced but it just IS NOT SELLING.

Lots of stuff on the market for well over a year now. Prices still stubbornly high.

One agent gone bust in my High Street. The rest will surely be struggling. Later in the year they'll be saying to vendors 'drop the price or find another mug to waste money marketing it'. Then the old 'hmm, you were on with them for what 9 months at 425k. To be honest, in this market, you're looking at 350k and you might have to take an offer below that ...'

That's how it works.

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Hate to p**s on the bonfire, but I can honestly say that I am not seeing any price falls in my area (N/E outer London). In fact, the houses that are coming on seem to be at even more aspirational prices than this time last year. I appear to be in a genuinley "crash immune" area. This crash is rubbish :angry: :angry: :angry:

That's a shame.

Round here in immune Esher I reckon we are 10-20% down.

Last year on the mortgage we couldn't afford a nice 4 bed detached.

Now, there are plenty and we could probably put in an offer 10% below the reduced asking price and still get a blowie from treated like royalty by the EA.

You want to move down here.

Edit to make sense of a kind

Edited by bobthe~

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In the bit of SW12 I watch, prices have gone from 650-750k down to 635-700k in the last couple of months. Occasionaly things appear for under 600k and disappear quite quickly (I assume sold). Prices in 2006 were 650k, so that agrees with the Halifax info.

(It's an area of very uniform 3-bed terraces, so quite easy to watch. Except a few have loft extensions and go for about 100k more. Its a pity they don't report the number of bedrooms on ourproperty)

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To those who say prices aren't dropping where you are, can I recommend you get property bee. I thought prices were pretty static in my area till I go this bit of software, but it is pretty clear I was wrong. Big drops all over the shop and this just helps to track them.

Of course prices may indeed be static where you are (or even rising :lol: ) but either way this should help you see the 'wood for the trees'. It should be compulsory for people on this website imo.

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I have to admit, i find it hard to see price falls at the moment.

I know it is happening, but it just isn't much evidence locally yet.

Well, down in East Sussex its happening! Watching a nice 4 bed detached in my Cul-de-sac go from mid 300's back in March and now listed at 274.9k. I see price reductions everywhere but NE London may be different. In a global meltdown you always get one hold-out area and for the Great Crash of the early 21st Century NE London is it!

edit:

Yup--here it is, according to the last Q report from the LR--most areas in London are up--or it down? Not sure:

Wandsworth £440,039 -4.1% 3.9% 1071

City Of London £407,665 -11.2% -11.8% 33

Merton £405,573 12.3% 8.2% 602

Barnet £383,956 -3.7% 6.3% 924

Haringey £349,116 -3.3% 8% 568

Kingston Upon Thames £345,398 -6.0% 6.7% 444

Lambeth £341,580 2.2% 7.3% 917

Ealing £337,305 -3.0% 9.5% 850

Tower Hamlets £335,495 -5.5% 9% 668

Brent £335,369 1.7% 12.4% 571

Southwark £334,911 -1.4% 6.5% 701

Hounslow £329,066 -3.0% 13.9% 556

Harrow £323,106 -1.9% 8.9% 575

Hackney £317,702 -2.2% 8.9% 474

Bromley £306,727 -7.6% 4.7% 1015

Redbridge £294,506 1.5% 9.6% 833

Enfield £269,702 -2.1% 9.2% 951

Sutton £268,459 -3.3% 8.6% 672

Hillingdon £267,138 -4.3% 2.4% 832

Greenwich £263,107 -4.1% 7.4% 651

Croydon £252,367 -1.2% 5.2% 1127

Lewisham £251,025 -2.7% 6.1% 802

Havering £249,983 0.7% 6.9% 761

Waltham Forest £249,913 -0.9% 6.4% 659

Newham £247,581 2.8% 12.7% 812

Bexley £224,400 -2.8% 4.8% 715

Barking And Dagenham £204,503 2.6% 10.5% 542

Sources:

England and Wales

Land Registry of England and Wales, Crown copyright. The information above is based on figures provided by the Land Registry of England and Wales.

Edited by Realistbear

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Hate to p**s on the bonfire, but I can honestly say that I am not seeing any price falls in my area (N/E outer London). In fact, the houses that are coming on seem to be at even more aspirational prices than this time last year. I appear to be in a genuinley "crash immune" area. This crash is rubbish :angry: :angry: :angry:

I'm in NE London and I'm seeing plenty. A house in my street has been on sale for about 3 months now - started off at £460,000 - now down to £429,995 (still overpriced) and on its second EA.

Another one nearby went on sale about the same time - now down from £360,000 to £339,995 and also on its second EA.

Haven't seen any interest in either one.

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Hate to p**s on the bonfire, but I can honestly say that I am not seeing any price falls in my area (N/E outer London). In fact, the houses that are coming on seem to be at even more aspirational prices than this time last year. I appear to be in a genuinley "crash immune" area. This crash is rubbish :angry: :angry: :angry:

Utter crap... install Property Bee and have a look at the data I and some others have been collecting on the E11 area in the sub 325K price range, some definite falls in asking prices and the ones that come on at last summer's prices hang around for a long long time... it is a slow start but the real story is in the amount of completions and new mortgages... and this takes a while to filter through to asking prices.

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  • 401 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • up 5%



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