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Drilling Down The Halifax Data

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http://thecrownblogspot.blogspot.com/2008/...-june-2008.html

month on month house prices are down 2%. The Halifax report house prices down 6.1% annually, but they calculate this using this quarter against the quarter a year ago.

The true yearly drop is 8.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis. June 2007 average house price was £197,450 against £180,355 for June 2008.

The last 12 months has seen the biggest falls ever from the Halifax. The previous biggest 12 month fall was in October 1992 of -8.5%

House prices have fallen 9.65% from the peak in August 2007 10 months ago. It took from May 1989 to September 1992 for house price to fall 9.65% that is 41 months.

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don't worry about the Halifax's 3 month average figure...it'll soon show a true picture of the market.............because when September's figures come out the very high average house price figures we had last June , July and August will be the figure they use for last year.......

Even this month the halifax's annual drop went from 3.8% to 6.1%......this was because June 2007's really high price entered the 3 month average and March 2007's much lower price dropped out

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.....But prices are still higher than they were 2 years ago - they added. How long will that remain to be the case? I think the 2 year barrier will be significant. It's generally agreed that the boom ended with an upward blip, which gives people an excuse to talk about a 'correction'. When house prices are lower than they were 2 years ago, it looks even more like a slump.

Edited by blankster

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.....But prices are still higher than they were 2 years ago - they added. How long will that remain to be the case?

I am keeping a watch on my old hometown, San Diego, where prices are still higher than October 2004 levels. As the crash began the VIs were all quick to point out that house prices were still higher than 6 months ago, then 1 year ago, then 2 years ago..........................................

IMO, this crash is, as most are now admitting, far worse than the Great Crash of '89. We could see pre-1998 prices before this one is laid to rest.

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House prices have fallen 9.65% from the peak in August 2007 10 months ago. It took from May 1989 to September 1992 for house price to fall 9.65% that is 41 months.

It's amazing isn't it.

I can't remember the number of times I've posted that "a housing crash isn't like a stock market crash, it plays out over years."

Seems I'm underestimating this one.

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One thing I don't think I have seen discussed before is the type of properties that make up the Haliwide indices.

With a large number of properties to choose from, the small number of potential buyers are able to choose the best houses for their price range.

I wonder if what we are seeing is broadly speaking a drop of 10% in the best properties.

Heaven knows what the drop in the crappy ones is, because they haven't got to the approval stage because nobody has had an offer either accepted or in some cases, made.

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.....But prices are still higher than they were 2 years ago - they added. How long will that remain to be the case?

Yeah, and someone should remind them that there's £200 billion more borrowed against residential property today than there was two years ago.

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the more I see of it,the more I think you're right.Laura was the first poster I read openly talking about 70% across the board and that would pretty much take us to 1998.I can see it now,like I couldn't two months ago.this thing is picking up a terminal velocity and the lay offs are coming right on the back of it.

I don't think that is impossible. At the very least, Eric's pet subject, and its effect, has to be worked out of the system. That could account for a 50% drop alone. That is a lot of negative equity and the difficulty is going to be keeping that debt where it belongs, otherwise everyone pays!

p-o-p

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I am keeping a watch on my old hometown, San Diego, where prices are still higher than October 2004 levels. As the crash began the VIs were all quick to point out that house prices were still higher than 6 months ago, then 1 year ago, then 2 years ago..........................................

IMO, this crash is, as most are now admitting, far worse than the Great Crash of '89. We could see pre-1998 prices before this one is laid to rest.

They're already ahead of us...you really can't make this up!!!...

Yvette Cooper on R4 Today program this morning "House prices are still 40% higher than they were 5 years ago"

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http://thecrownblogspot.blogspot.com/2008/...-june-2008.html

month on month house prices are down 2%. The Halifax report house prices down 6.1% annually, but they calculate this using this quarter against the quarter a year ago.

The true yearly drop is 8.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis. June 2007 average house price was £197,450 against £180,355 for June 2008.

The last 12 months has seen the biggest falls ever from the Halifax. The previous biggest 12 month fall was in October 1992 of -8.5%

House prices have fallen 9.65% from the peak in August 2007 10 months ago. It took from May 1989 to September 1992 for house price to fall 9.65% that is 41 months.

I hate to quibble with your excellent analysis but by my reckoning the fall from peak is 9.7% !!!

Keep up the good work.

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http://thecrownblogspot.blogspot.com/2008/...-june-2008.html

month on month house prices are down 2%. The Halifax report house prices down 6.1% annually, but they calculate this using this quarter against the quarter a year ago.

The true yearly drop is 8.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis. June 2007 average house price was £197,450 against £180,355 for June 2008.

The last 12 months has seen the biggest falls ever from the Halifax. The previous biggest 12 month fall was in October 1992 of -8.5%

House prices have fallen 9.65% from the peak in August 2007 10 months ago. It took from May 1989 to September 1992 for house price to fall 9.65% that is 41 months.

I hate to quibble with your excellent analysis but by my reckoning the fall from peak is 9.7% !!!

Keep up the good work.

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Yvette Cooper on R4 Today program this morning "House prices are still 40% higher than they were 5 years ago"

mark my words. The 5 year barrier will be broken at some point before the next election. At which point you WILL hear 'house prices are higher than under the tories'.

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.....But prices are still higher than they were 2 years ago - they added. How long will that remain to be the case? I think the 2 year barrier will be significant. It's generally agreed that the boom ended with an upward blip, which gives people an excuse to talk about a 'correction'. When house prices are lower than they were 2 years ago, it looks even more like a slump.

I posted this in the other thread:

June 2008 £180,344

.

.

July 2006 £177,754

Aug 2006 £179,842

Sep 2006 £181,817

As you can see we're not far off the 2 years already. It would have to fall by 2,590 or 1.4% in July to be less than July 2006. At the very least it would shut up Declan, or make him say well at least they are higher than 3 years ago.

If we also consider wage inflation, there is potentially 2 years worth of pay rises enabling someone who buys now to be able (on multiple of earnings) to afford a higher value house than they could have 2 years ago. However the cost of servicing a mortgage is higher than 2 years ago. In some cases the interest element of a mortgage could be 20% more a month. Although prices are nearly at the same level as 2 years ago, the are probably less affordable now than then for ftbers.

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mark my words. The 5 year barrier will be broken at some point before the next election. At which point you WILL hear 'house prices are higher than under the tories'.

No you won't, you will hear that houses are more affordable than under the Tories. :lol:

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mark my words. The 5 year barrier will be broken at some point before the next election. At which point you WILL hear 'house prices are higher than under the tories'.

I'm not sure any of us want the scenario of house prices returning to 1998 levels. Speaking personally as a homeowner, I could cope, as we've massively overpaid our mortgage, and bought in 1999, but my god it would be economic armageddon! What would be the impact of that amount of unsecured lending by banks & building socs? Last time they started suggesting repayment schemes to clear the negative equity, but the scale this time is potentially so vast that surely most people would just opt for reposession and bankrupcy?

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err I wouldn't mind.

I think it's a case of be careful what you wish for. House price falls aren't happening in isolation, the economic situation that must occur for house prices to once again reach these levels is unthinkable and I daresay would mean that no job, however 'recession proof' would be safe.

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.....But prices are still higher than they were 2 years ago - they added. How long will that remain to be the case? I think the 2 year barrier will be significant. It's generally agreed that the boom ended with an upward blip, which gives people an excuse to talk about a 'correction'. When house prices are lower than they were 2 years ago, it looks even more like a slump.

Roughly?

1 month.

:P:lol::lol:

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I hate to quibble with your excellent analysis but by my reckoning the fall from peak is 9.7% !!!

Keep up the good work.

Year on year is 8.7 something.

Fall from peak is 9.7%

2 different measures.

The peak came after June 2007.

You are both right

*inappropriate fondle after an MSE hug to you both*

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err I wouldn't mind.

I cringe at the amount of equity I'd see evaporate from our house, but then we could upsize to something positively palatial. My job would probaby be ok as we serve a pan-european client base, and I MIGHT still have a pension worth collecting if the markets survive.

However, virtually everyone I work with who owns a house would be financially ruined.

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They're already ahead of us...you really can't make this up!!!...

Yvette Cooper on R4 Today program this morning "House prices are still 40% higher than they were 5 years ago"

Funny house House price inflation is seen as good, but doesn't require wage inflation to keep up with it. However as soon as eggs go up 20p per half dozen it's as if the the sky is falling in and people demand huge wage rises.

Why do people perceive mortgage costs as intrinsically good (due to asset inflation) and other domestic costs as bad when they increase?

As an aside do you think both Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper use brown paper bags when making love ?

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mark my words. The 5 year barrier will be broken at some point before the next election. At which point you WILL hear 'house prices are higher than under the tories'.

Actually, this would mean that GB was right with his quote "no more boom and bust"

- they went out with the same house prices that they came in with! :lol::lol:

As for the poster who doesn't want 60/70/80% falls.... erm, I think you'll find that most of us didn't want the 300/400% increasees in house prices in the first place. chickens roosting, and all that. whether we want it or not is irrelevant - just whether you're protected or not :ph34r: *ducks for cover*

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If you look at the Halifax historical HPI data you can see that the peak of the market in the 80s was in May 1989. If you equate the peak of the market this time to August 2007 and get an average of the monthly falls over 10 months you get the following astonishing data...

June 1989 - March 1990. Average monthly fall = -0.17%

Sept 2007 - June 2008. Average monthly fall = -1.00%

That's an average monthly fall now of more than FIVE times the equivalent of the same stage of the last crash!

Wonder why Halifax don't draw attention to this!!

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/05...SA)'!A1

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As an aside do you think both Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper use brown paper bags when making love ?

As we used to say when I were a lad, probably best to use one bag on each, in case one bag fell off.

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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