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Guest KingCharles1st

I Think The Time Has Come To Repalce "fear," With

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Guest KingCharles1st

in the graph

Can we have that graph back please-- ppwwweeeassseeee

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in the graph

Can we have that graph back please-- ppwwweeeassseeee

Eh?

Anyway, I think your're right, the BBC has gone recession mad tonight. Every 15 minutes.

Earlier they interviewed about 4 people one after the other, all bears.

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Eh?

Anyway, I think your're right, the BBC has gone recession mad tonight. Every 15 minutes.

Earlier they interviewed about 4 people one after the other, all bears.

Resession mad eh?

6 months resession will be the old word.

Depression will be the new one.

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Eh?

Anyway, I think your're right, the BBC has gone recession mad tonight. Every 15 minutes.

Earlier they interviewed about 4 people one after the other, all bears.

Being a cynical I think the BBC are priming us for an IR cut. The message is recession is here, its better to have a cut in IR's and tolerate higher inflation than to suffer from a recession where you all lose your jobs.

HAL

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Guest Mr Parry
Being a cynical I think the BBC are priming us for an IR cut. The message is recession is here, its better to have a cut in IR's and tolerate higher inflation than to suffer from a recession where you all lose your jobs.

HAL

Tend to agree, but LIBOR is the word here.

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Its not sounding too good is it? Been reading around the forum for a few months after deciding to pull out from buying a house after looking at the graph on the front page.

The worry now is its going to get so bad, that the people who didn't binge in cheap credit are going to be dragged down with everyone else.

You kind of hope that the people in the highest places know what they are doing, you think someone a few years back could have foreseen what as going on, and what it would lead to. I mean someone in a position of power, influence.

Instead they just rode the bubble. And in the end they have f**ked up the whole economy. It's gone mainstream now, I think some people are still in denial, but everyone knows what is going on.

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Its not sounding too good is it? Been reading around the forum for a few months after deciding to pull out from buying a house after looking at the graph on the front page.

The worry now is its going to get so bad, that the people who didn't binge in cheap credit are going to be dragged down with everyone else. You kind of hope that the people in the highest places know what they are doing, you think someone a few years back could have foreseen what as going on, and what it would lead to. I mean someone in a position of power, influence.

Instead they just rode the bubble. And in the end they have f**ked up the whole economy. It's gone mainstream now, I think some people are still in denial, but everyone knows what is going on.

Yep, how could it be any other way? Oh come on, you didn't think all the STR's were going to 'have it off' did you? There's one or two; Monty/ Bubb etc who will absolutely thrive in this new economy, but for the vast majority of us (who aren't that astute) we'll all get fried/caught up in it when the SHTF. First step job losses, see how long the STR fund lasts when you have to eat in to it. Was one of the first one here to do a "be careful what you wish for thread", boring now, we all know the script... <_<

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You kind of hope that the people in the highest places know what they are doing, you think someone a few years back could have foreseen what as going on, and what it would lead to. I mean someone in a position of power, influence.

Instead they just rode the bubble. And in the end they have f**ked up the whole economy. It's gone mainstream now, I think some people are still in denial, but everyone knows what is going on.

Oh yes, yes, yes. Some of us on here have taken a load of stick about our predictions, not least the accusation of being 'armchair economists'. In the meantime the supposedly 'professional economists' have blindly blundered their way to everyone's economic misery.

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Yep, how could it be any other way? Oh come on, you didn't think all the STR's were going to 'have it off' did you? There's one or two; Monty/ Bubb etc who will absolutely thrive in this new economy, but for the vast majority of us (who aren't that astute) we'll all get fried/caught up in it when the SHTF. First step job losses, see how long the STR fund lasts when you have to eat in to it. Was one of the first one here to do a "be careful what you wish for thread", boring now, we all know the script... <_<

Your right mate, I know.

But, I'm too young too remember the pain of the last recession. Only thing I remember is Major appearing on the 9 o'clock news telling us we are out of recession. This is all new to me, as I am sure it is to my whole generation.

Quality film by the way.

Edited to add the quote

Edited by Ted

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Yep, how could it be any other way? Oh come on, you didn't think all the STR's were going to 'have it off' did you? There's one or two; Monty/ Bubb etc who will absolutely thrive in this new economy, but for the vast majority of us (who aren't that astute) we'll all get fried/caught up in it when the SHTF. First step job losses, see how long the STR fund lasts when you have to eat in to it. Was one of the first one here to do a "be careful what you wish for thread", boring now, we all know the script... <_<

Well, my monthly savings target went up from 2K to 3K this month. 2-4 years saving away 80% of takehome between me and the missus and we should be laughing. got 35K banked, after a small setback where we had to get a new car earlier this year (cheap as chips though with the trade in and job related discount, plus some serious haggling).

Target is 50K by christmas. HSBC can put that in their pipe and smoke it if they want a decent deposit. How many more mortgages can they lend with that extra liquidity! :-)

My long-term view is for IRs to carry on rising, prices to fall, in the short term ltvs to continue to get worse... however, once the falls start to happen, I am predicting LTVs in the region of 80-85% to become the market average (after 5 years from now). At that stage, I reckon we will have 199K saved up. Probably too much to be honest, but by then we will be having kids

So, in 4 years (bottom of market IMO), 150K mortgage on 7.5% (estimated rate, 30-40% LTV) over 10 years, will recieve my lump sum pension gratuity and be mortgage free with 40K banked at the age of 38!!! In a nice house!!! WITH NO MORTGAGE!!!!!! thats going off a purchase price post-crash of 350K,which equates to 1/2 million at todays prices (35% fall, fairly conservative). Oh, I havent factored in pay rises yet, which even if they dont meet inflation, they wont be far off them.

Its all worked out to plan!!!!! :lol:

Edited by mbga9pgf

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The fear has set in, all I got at work to day ws house price falls and recession chatter, and the occasional 'How did you know it was coming'?

After being tempted to explain the 6-July up coming moon in house of "I smoke to much weed" and how the only way you wil be able to eat in a years time is to buy gold.. I plumbed for the real (from my point of view) reason.

Simple... I said take away cheap credit (Ref EP's liar loans, crazy LTV, and self certs) and it is simple maths avg house should be 3.5x Avg wage and avg wage is 25K.

Avg family house should be 2.5x avg joint income...not rocket science, just common sense in the miss pricing of risk, and speculation that followed the bubble.

Seems Joe public has the smell of fear, and large discretionary/luxury retailers are about to take a total kicking (M&S cough, cough)! All this when inflation is only 3%. That I word doesn't seem so nasty when it affects you primary asset, it sure changes ones behavior when your primary asset is nose diving yet inflation in every other thing you need to live/work is charging off in the other direction.

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Being a cynical I think the BBC are priming us for an IR cut. The message is recession is here, its better to have a cut in IR's and tolerate higher inflation than to suffer from a recession where you all lose your jobs.

HAL

At the moment the money markets are pricing in a 100% 0.25% rise in interest rates before year end

that could all change, doesn't really matter as montgage rates are soaring whatever.

BoE base rate 2007 5.75% two year fixed mortgages 5.5%

BoE base rate 2008 5.00% two year fixed mortgage 7.00%

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Only thing I remember is Major appearing on the 9 o'clock news telling us we are out of recession.

Actually it was Major appearing on the 9 o'clock news to tell us that only he could pull the nation out of the recession it wasn't in...

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Well, my monthly savings target went up from 2K to 3K this month. 2-4 years saving away 80% of takehome between me and the missus and we should be laughing. got 35K banked, after a small setback where we had to get a new car earlier this year (cheap as chips though with the trade in and job related discount, plus some serious haggling).

Target is 50K by christmas. HSBC can put that in their pipe and smoke it if they want a decent deposit. How many more mortgages can they lend with that extra liquidity! :-)

My long-term view is for IRs to carry on rising, prices to fall, in the short term ltvs to continue to get worse... however, once the falls start to happen, I am predicting LTVs in the region of 80-85% to become the market average (after 5 years from now). At that stage, I reckon we will have 199K saved up. Probably too much to be honest, but by then we will be having kids

So, in 4 years (bottom of market IMO), 150K mortgage on 7.5% (estimated rate, 30-40% LTV) over 10 years, will recieve my lump sum pension gratuity and be mortgage free with 40K banked at the age of 38!!! In a nice house!!! WITH NO MORTGAGE!!!!!! thats going off a purchase price post-crash of 350K,which equates to 1/2 million at todays prices (35% fall, fairly conservative). Oh, I havent factored in pay rises yet, which even if they dont meet inflation, they wont be far off them.

Its all worked out to plan!!!!! :lol:

hope it works out for you, you're obviously in a recession/depression proof job/jobs and prepared to live like monks to achieve your goals of owning a house/having a family. TBH I've kinda moved on to the mindest of "what kinda brave new world are my 7-15 year old kids going to inherit after the SHTF???" Hopefully things' turn, heh, it's probably the same worries all parents have always had....except this time I can't help thinking that "this time it really is different" :(

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Yep, how could it be any other way? Oh come on, you didn't think all the STR's were going to 'have it off' did you? There's one or two; Monty/ Bubb etc who will absolutely thrive in this new economy, but for the vast majority of us (who aren't that astute) we'll all get fried/caught up in it when the SHTF. First step job losses, see how long the STR fund lasts when you have to eat in to it. Was one of the first one here to do a "be careful what you wish for thread", boring now, we all know the script... <_<

I am glad I work for myself rather than have a job for someone else.

Yes, business might slow down, but it's not "all or nothing" like it is if you depend on a company for your job, so they could either go bust, or just make you redundant at the drop of a share price.

I remember posting stuff along the lines of "be careful what you wish for" when I saw people crowing over EAs, builders etc losing their jobs, because I thought it mightn't be long til lots of other people lose theirs too.

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Only thing I remember is Major appearing on the 9 o'clock news telling us we are out of recession.

Yes John Major doing TV interviews and spouting out his famous quote of "green shoots of recovery" , whilst other times he was shooting his own load into fellow MP Edwina Currie :rolleyes:

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Guest Steve Cook
Resession mad eh?

6 months resession will be the old word.

Depression will be the new one.

yep

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I've got a cynical (wise) friend who has a similar view of pensions.

Basically his thesis is that Joe Public is out on a spend everything credit binge in their 30's/40's and not saving for their retirement. Hence when they retire they'll be skint and vote in a govt. that promises to tax the **** off anyway who actually understood the idea of saving and hence has a decent pension.

ergo, he has no pension, just a bank account offshore that he hopes the taxman won't be able to get his hands on.

At the end of the day even the wise suffer for the folly of the many.

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Guest Steve Cook
Yep, how could it be any other way? Oh come on, you didn't think all the STR's were going to 'have it off' did you? There's one or two; Monty/ Bubb etc who will absolutely thrive in this new economy, but for the vast majority of us (who aren't that astute) we'll all get fried/caught up in it when the SHTF. First step job losses, see how long the STR fund lasts when you have to eat in to it. Was one of the first one here to do a "be careful what you wish for thread", boring now, we all know the script... <_<

CL, I definitely take your point about the inflationary risks to STR capital. However, I would respond to this by the saying that I believe this inflationary spike will be just that. A spike. A monetary deflationary depression is what must be ultimately on the cards. Though this will, to some extent in the short run and, to an admittedly massive extent, in the long run be offset by a deflation in the supply of oil. In tems of the price rises a deflation of oil supply engenders, this is functionally equivalent to monetary inflation, of course.

Also, I would add that if TSHTF in as big a way as I personally think it is going to, I definitely prefer to be financially light on my feet in order to do whatever ducking and diving I am capable of. This would be certainly much more difficult if my exchange value were completely locked up in a depreciating asset such as a house.

Edited by Steve Cook

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Being a cynical I think the BBC are priming us for an IR cut. The message is recession is here, its better to have a cut in IR's and tolerate higher inflation than to suffer from a recession where you all lose your jobs.

HAL

Paxman asked Yvette Cooper "recession or inflation - which is more preferable" this evening.

I held my breath.....answer ?........." Global problems..........credit crunch......challenging times.........economic strategy............guff guff guff"

Paxman was incredulous for the entire interview.

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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