US Citizen Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 What is an economic meltdown ? Well, my definition of a meldown in the economy is when the general perception of speculators is that we are in a bear market and that the economy is in a bad shape with high debt, redundacies, house price values falling, possible interest rate increases, high inflation, high energy and oil prices and an paralised government. This is precisley where we are right now. The media have done their best to their credit to keep calm but the word that is on everyones lips is "Recession". Recessions tend to be a self-fullfilling prophercy in the fact that if investors and speculators and even worse the general public think it may happen, then it probably will due to everyone trying to hold on to the little money they have and to try and get by. Gordon Brown has taxed every bit of spare cash we have earned over the past 11 years and spent it on managing targets, on bailing out commercial ventures like Northern Rock through loans. The public accounts and private accounts are the consequence of lending our way out of previous trends of a recession. The high street spending party is also over, with the likes of JJB cutting 90% of its shops and house builders simply trying to survive. In boardrooms up and down the country; Director will be pouring over the balance sheets looking for ways to make cuts. They usually start with jobs, and then start to make firesales to boost the coffers, to prevent bankrupcy. There is nothing left in the kitty, this will not be over quickly and more over people, this is going to hurt everyone. Those that got mortgages, they are going to understand what pain is really all about as all of the cheaper deals are withdrawn and replaced by expensive lending. I expect that those wish to move off fixed rate deals are going to find it difficult to find new lenders to take them on. Those wishing to get on to the property ladder such as first time buyers will simply find that they will not have enough of a deposit to find a lender to take them on, regardless of their credit histories. The average price of living will increase by another 40% over the next 12 months. There are already noises that we are not paying enough for our energy like gas and electricity. If oil follows similar trends of the past 12 months and with the addition of fuel duty by the proposed increases this is likely to be 40% dearer than at the moment. I have heard people say that the Chancellor will have no choice but to capitulate with fuel duty by cutting it to keep the economy going. The problem is Mr Darling has already spent the money he is expecting from the hikes in his famous back track over the 10% income tax fiasco. Businesses of all sizes cannot keep prices down any longer and you can expect "Real Inflation", go like mad. Again the government has said inflation is 3.2%, but this is only because business have tried to keep control of prices and trying to hang in there. Believe me it is at this point that prices escalate the 40% that they really should be. Businesses will have to put up prices just to stay in business. Those that dont put up prices will find that they will go bust. So we are, where we are in a mess. Where we go from here no one can know, exept for one bit of advice I would like to offer all of you. Do right by yourself, because you cannot do right by everyone else. You may as well make one person happy . . . yourself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
right_freds_dead Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 if it all gets too much i cant see large migrations out of the uk into happier european cities.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not Long Now Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 if it all gets too much i cant see large migrations out of the uk into happier european cities.. Like Tirana. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
US Citizen Posted July 8, 2008 Author Share Posted July 8, 2008 Like Tirana. Forget Europe. Harare, Zimbabwe at least has better weather than the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blankster Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Man standing there, waiting for duck to fly into his mouth, eventually is hit by duck and need 40 stitches in lip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iangilb Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 I don't think were are in anything like an economic meltdown. Someone mentioned Zimbabwe - thats economic meltdown. We have got out of kilter on a lot of fundamentals, like the savings ratio, balance of trade, strength of the pound and of course house prices, but these can be brought back into line with only modest pain. I also think oil can fall as fast as it has risen (thats not to say that it will). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImA20SomethingGetMeOutOfHere Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Has anybody seen the business section of the BBC news website? It's a positive bear-fest today: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/default.stm We've got recession, job cuts, FTSE bear market talk and fallng house prices. Bear news all the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not Long Now Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Has anybody seen the business section of the BBC news website? It's a positive bear-fest today:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/default.stm We've got recession, job cuts, FTSE bear market talk and fallng house prices. Bear news all the way. Don't housing bears draw the line at falling house prices? I don't know about you, but I don't really fancy lots of jobs cuts / recession / depression etc etc (however inevitable / likely this is). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonpo Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 I don't know about you, but I don't really fancy lots of jobs cuts / recession / depression etc etc (however inevitable / likely this is). arrh stop being so emotional.... you need to get through stage 1 at least !!! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbler-Ross_model Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happy? Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 I don't think were are in anything like an economic meltdown. Someone mentioned Zimbabwe - thats economic meltdown. We have got out of kilter on a lot of fundamentals, like the savings ratio, balance of trade, strength of the pound and of course house prices, but these can be brought back into line with only modest pain. I also think oil can fall as fast as it has risen (thats not to say that it will). Indeed. Anyone who makes comparisons between the UK and Zimbabwe is so far up their own **** they have no sense of reality. Ch4 news tonight carried the story of yet another MDC supporter savagely beaten and murdered for expressing a view in dissent of Mugabe's henchmen. Yesterday I posted links to Zimbabwe $500,000,000 on sale on eBay for a fiver. We do not live in Zimbabwe, we live in a rich, western democracy where no-one dies of starvation because they don't support the right political party, and generally people sleep safe in their beds - even those who violently oppose our liberal democracy. Dissent - it's the British way after all - but a sense of proportion would give some posters a degree of credibility they're sorely missing currently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not Long Now Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 arrh stop being so emotional....you need to get through stage 1 at least !!! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbler-Ross_model Im at stage 5 and ready to rock and roll... Doesn't mean I have to like it jonny me lad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bendy Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 arrh stop being so emotional....you need to get through stage 1 at least !!! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbler-Ross_model fairish model - absolute crock of shit though like any theoretical models. best theory i ever saw was the contingency that basically admitted that any theories (in whatever field) never fitted to one particular cause/case. seems to be mainly concerned with terminal illness now that one after reading it. on the job loss though, i'd have a shade of anger, no point in bargaining, possibly depressed (in time) but with definate acceptance. maybe that's cos' i know the economy is going down the pan though - for someone listening to the government and believeing them i'd say they would be different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alistair darlings mole Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 We're all doomed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSG Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Man standing there, waiting for duck to fly into his mouth, eventually is hit by duck and need 40 stitches in lip. Remember Grasshopper - Man who keep hands in pocket will feel cocky all day long! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonpo Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Im at stage 5 and ready to rock and roll... Doesn't mean I have to like it jonny me lad. Resistance is futile... as they say. the arrow of time moves swiftly on irrespective of 'like'... ready to rock and roll like its 1931 or 1873 or 1825 funny how these parties happen every 60 years.... rock on.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Austin Allegro Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Resistance is futile... as they say. the arrow of time moves swiftly on irrespective of 'like'... ready to rock and roll like its 1931 or 1873 or 1825 funny how these parties happen every 60 years.... rock on.... Could you expand on the theory? Could it be to do with the extent of living memory? My economic history is a bit rusty. Wall St Crash was 1929. 1873 was what - agricultural depression in the UK caused by US wheat farming expansion? 1825 was slump after the Napoleonic Wars I think...can we go back any further? South Sea Bubble burst about 1725 I think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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