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bomberbrown

Fred Harrison Pretty Much On The Money So Far

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Yep, Fred was pretty much spot on.

One thing I don't understand is that he talks about the depression of 2010 but that house prices will recover as usual due to the cycle. I would have thought that a depression would be severe enough to prevent the normal recovery in prices and that you would get the deflationary Japanese scenario, with house prices falling for an extended period.

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1999 for the first edition.

VMR.

Has anyone read it? What does he predict inflation/deflation?

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Has anyone read it? What does he predict inflation/deflation?

I've read it a year or so ago...his timing is impeccable, but I wasn't completely convinced by his reasoning. He has the right predictions, but I don't think he got to the true underlying reasons. There are some interesting ideas in the book, but some, in my opinion, bad ones too.

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http://www.moneyweek.com/file/3075/housing-boom.html

Googled it and found this 2005 article on Money Week. Gives a better picture of his theories if you don't know him.

Very interesting.

In 2004 he predicted 20% fall from peak by 2010, following a 'winners curse' phase he predicted that would last between 05 to 07/08. This is excactly how it happened while all others were either predicting an 'imminent crash' (e.g. Bootle) or 'house prices only go up' (e.g. David Smith*). In January 2008 Fred revised his fall from peak to 30%.

The guy should be hunted down for sorcery and fortelling the future. He is not of this earth.

* In May 2007 David Smith on his blog said he had read Fred's book and was 'unimpressed' with it, 3 months before the banking crisis.

Edited by Oxfordite

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Guest Bart of Darkness
Googled it and found this 2005 article on Money Week. Gives a better picture of his theories if you don't know him.

In the sidebar there's a 2008 article entitled "Why the outlook for Britain is truly dreadful"

The Purchasing Managers’ Index of manufacturing activity for June was “truly dreadful”. It dropped to a five-year low of 45.8, well below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/49861/why-th...y-dreadful.html

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The guy should be hunted down for sorcery and fortelling the future. He is not of this earth.

You won't have to go far to find him. He is replying to my comments on Renegade economist.

VMR.

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You won't have to go far to find him. He is replying to my comments on Renegade economist.

VMR.

If as Fred says land prices are going to fall faster and further than house prices over the next couple of years

should we buying land in two years time and not houses? and then do a self build?

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If as Fred says land prices are going to fall faster and further than house prices over the next couple of years

should we buying land in two years time and not houses? and then do a self build?

Why buy an asset, which is in itself an evil method used to siphon off the wealth of your own people.

Why not ask yourself why you must pay £100,000 (or perhaps the equivalent to 10 years of hard savings) for “planning permission”. Why do you need permission to house yourself? Where did the people who give this “permission” get the power to give it to you?

It is by far the most corrupt and evil system used in this country I know off as it affects the vast majority and keeps us as serfs. A home should only cost 12-18months wages if it wasn’t for this corrupt system.

Land prices are down 25% from 18 months ago (I know an person who buys and sells land for a living). It will fall 70% from peak imo so more than 50% left to fall. Your looking at 2-3 years before it is worthwhile. But I would say don’t participate in an evil system without at least trying to fight it first.

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Why buy an asset, which is in itself an evil method used to siphon off the wealth of your own people.

Why not ask yourself why you must pay £100,000 (or perhaps the equivalent to 10 years of hard savings) for “planning permission”. Why do you need permission to house yourself? Where did the people who give this “permission” get the power to give it to you?

It is by far the most corrupt and evil system used in this country I know off as it affects the vast majority and keeps us as serfs. A home should only cost 12-18months wages if it wasn’t for this corrupt system.

Land prices are down 25% from 18 months ago (I know an person who buys and sells land for a living). It will fall 70% from peak imo so more than 50% left to fall. Your looking at 2-3 years before it is worthwhile. But I would say don’t participate in an evil system without at least trying to fight it first.

It is wrong to be a land lord. That is take rent from others to live on land you supposedly own.

But I see nothing wrong in having a small piece of land to put a house on for myself and family.

In fact that's the way I think people should be able to live.

Proudhon said Property is Theft but if you look into it he meant the land lords. The people who had appropriated

masses of land and houses in order to live off the work of others.

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It is wrong to be a land lord. That is take rent from others to live on land you supposedly own.

But I see nothing wrong in having a small piece of land to put a house on for myself and family.

In fact that's the way I think people should be able to live.

Proudhon said Property is Theft but if you look into it he meant the land lords. The people who had appropriated

masses of land and houses in order to live off the work of others.

The bit that is evil is the system in place, which keeps rents and prices high, ie the "planning" laws. Without "planning" laws rents would be HALF what they are!

So is it evil to manipulate the price of a good/service people need to buy for your own benefit?

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It is wrong to be a land lord. That is take rent from others to live on land you supposedly own.

But I see nothing wrong in having a small piece of land to put a house on for myself and family.

FFS are ya a commie sicko.....

you will have mugabee sp? taking land off rich and handing to poor soon....

jesus wake up and smell reality and stop waiting for someone else to fix your condition......

next you be saying its wrong to take interest on loans .... you know where that will lead!

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You won't have to go far to find him. He is replying to my comments on Renegade economist.

VMR.

Any chance you can get him to start posting on here, VMR?

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It's an OK boo, the predictions are spot on and I have every confidence in the model. I'm less enthusiastic about his analysis and the book does get very repetitive. However, I would still recommend it.

As for why he says depression rather than a recession - easy, say "depression" and you can guarantee at least another 50,000 book sales! Plus no one's going to tell you you were wrong if its only technically a recession!

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FFS are ya a commie sicko.....

you will have mugabee sp? taking land off rich and handing to poor soon....

jesus wake up and smell reality and stop waiting for someone else to fix your condition......

next you be saying its wrong to take interest on loans .... you know where that will lead!

I cant tell if you are serious or not!

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Guest Steve Cook
Yep, Fred was pretty much spot on.

One thing I don't understand is that he talks about the depression of 2010 but that house prices will recover as usual due to the cycle. I would have thought that a depression would be severe enough to prevent the normal recovery in prices and that you would get the deflationary Japanese scenario, with house prices falling for an extended period.

A depression is coming.

You get out of a depression in one of two ways:

You either grow your economy out of it.

Or you have a war.

Both of the above require an increased availability of cheap energy.

We have already hit the peak of our hydrocarbon energy supplies.

We cannot grow out of the depression to come

Desperation will set in. At some point, someone will blink first. When that happens there will be an all out conflict between the major players in the World and we will squander the final dregs of our hydrocarbon inheritance in a futile conflict over the remaining scraps.

I guess it's just the way of us humans.

Shame, really.

Edited by Steve Cook

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Has anyone read it? What does he predict inflation/deflation?

It's not really about that. I read it a while ago, but as I recall the basic premise is that Land, a scarce resource has a tendency to soak up profits from the real economy. Eventually this goes to far and a bust follows. He show the cycle is approximately 18 years.

In his other book, Ricardo's Law and Great Tax Clawback Scam, he describes how Government infrastructure investment tend to flow into property values.

Essentially, property has a distorting effect on real economic activity.

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I read it and it does get a bit repititive after half way through. However the HPC predictions, considering it was written in 2005, are stunning, even down to the recent spike in oil prices.

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If as Fred says land prices are going to fall faster and further than house prices over the next couple of years

should we buying land in two years time and not houses? and then do a self build?

That is one of my plans. I have left offer letters with two developers at 60% off current asking. Maybe I'll get a call in 2 years time when that looks like a good deal for them.

Funny thing was one developer (an OO with garden for sale) was very aware of Browns Boom&Bust speech from 1997 and ridiculing him for allowing this boom to get out of control. He didnt want to talk about the bust part of the story though.

VMR.

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Any chance you can get him to start posting on here, VMR?

I contacted them a couple of weeks ago to start posting their articles here. Some have been appearing in the news blog but I dont remember who posted them.

VMR.

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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