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Recession Question, At What Point Do The Meeja Admit We're Now In It?

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so many talking heads on tv have evaded the question. If the UK economy is house prices and they're fast approaching -10% YoY, would that then officially be described as a depression? :huh:

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so many talking heads on tv have evaded the question. If the UK economy is house prices and they're fast approaching -10% YoY would that then officially be described as a depression? :huh:

No, the economy's performance is based on growth in GDP. The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth (economist speak, basically meaning GDP falls). However, a series of quarters with negative or very low growth could also be considered a recession.

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No, the economy's performance is based on growth in GDP. The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth (economist speak, basically meaning GDP falls). However, a series of quarters with negative or very low growth could also be considered a recession.

looking at current trends when d'ya envisage we'll be 'officially' there?

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looking at current trends when d'ya envisage we'll be 'officially' there?

Difficult to say as the spike in retail sales for May might screw with the ONS figures. Perhaps the final quarter of this year, more likely the first quarter of 2009 when some of the redundancy money starts to run out and Xmas is over.

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Several decades ago Howard Bertaluchi was the unfortunate victim of the weather. Standing on the viewing deck of the Empire State building he was caught by a sudden gust of wind that propelled him over the railing causing him to begin what would prove to be a fatal descent to the concrete paving hundreds of feet below. On the way down he passed by a painter on a scaffolding on the outside of the famous landmark building who asked Howard if everything was okay. Howard, having nothing else to say, said: Everything is fine, so far.

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I don't know the answer to this important question. I have noted, however, that the BBC has strenuously avoided talk of peak oil for the last umpteen years, relegating it to a fringe category along with tinfoil hat wearing UFO believers.

Even though peak oil has become more mainstream, the media still prefer to explain oil ramp-ups in terms of political instability in Nigeria, speculation ahead of a possible US attack on Iran etc.

They still have the same mentality with regard to the general state of the economy. :(

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I don't know the answer to this important question. I have noted, however, that the BBC has strenuously avoided talk of peak oil for the last umpteen years, relegating it to a fringe category along with tinfoil hat wearing UFO believers.

Even though peak oil has become more mainstream, the media still prefer to explain oil ramp-ups in terms of political instability in Nigeria, speculation ahead of a possible US attack on Iran etc.

They still have the same mentality with regard to the general state of the economy. :(

That's because it's global factors affecting the economy, and definitely nothing to do with Gordon Brown. ;)

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looking at current trends when d'ya envisage we'll be 'officially' there?

My guess is we will probably go into recession during the current quarter (ie. 08 Q3). We won't get the first estimate of Q3 growth until late October. And we won't get the first estimate of Q4 growth until late January. So even if we are entering a technical recession now, we won't "technically" know about it for another six months or more. However, the monthly purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) give a pretty good guide. I reckon figures in the late 30s early 40s would indicate falling GDP. Readings for June were 43.5 (manufacturing output) and 47.1 (services activity). It's the services one that really counts though ...

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That's because it's global factors affecting the economy, and definitely nothing to do with Gordon Brown. ;)

It's because the BBC thinks that bad news will frighten away its viewers, and also the limited imagination of the BBC staff themelves means that they are stuck in the growth paradigm of the last fifteen years.

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No, the economy's performance is based on growth in GDP. The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth (economist speak, basically meaning GDP falls). However, a series of quarters with negative or very low growth could also be considered a recession.

Have a look at this: http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/05/re...re-fiction.html

I think it is well argued.

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Have a look at this: http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/05/re...re-fiction.html

I think it is well argued.

Interesting stuff, and it's probably right, recession is already here, but no one has clocked on to it yet.

Interesting that we now have more statistics and figures available than ever before, yet it's actually all bull**** and is just a tool of the propaganda merchants.

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Interesting stuff, and it's probably right, recession is already here, but no one has clocked on to it yet.

Interesting that we now have more statistics and figures available than ever before, yet it's actually all bull**** and is just a tool of the propaganda merchants.

it is amongst us already isnt it? Only being held at bay by lack of discussion. Which is odd as Joe Sixpack doesn't actually give a 5hit re. the actual concept. <_<

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Recession? I agree with Warren Buffett - "We're already in recession, by any common sense definition." Stock are down, house prices are down. Most peoples' net worth is down.

The GDP numbers are usually revised afterwards, anything up to a year. That's what happen (in the US) in 2000. Nobody knew they had had a recession until a year after.

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so many talking heads on tv have evaded the question. If the UK economy is house prices and they're fast approaching -10% YoY, would that then officially be described as a depression? :huh:

The media will call it a recession when they get fed up of calling it the "credit crunch".

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Recession? I agree with Warren Buffett - "We're already in recession, by any common sense definition." Stock are down, house prices are down. Most peoples' net worth is down.

The GDP numbers are usually revised afterwards, anything up to a year. That's what happen (in the US) in 2000. Nobody knew they had had a recession until a year after.

iirc weren't R2 presenters told not to mention the 'R' word a few months back? :blink:

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Don't look to the current media to give an accurate portrayal of this. Even in the last 10 or so years the accuracy of their reporting has gone downhill.

Look elsewhere.

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Don't look to the current media to give an accurate portrayal of this. Even in the last 10 or so years the accuracy of their reporting has gone downhill.

Look elsewhere.

Gone downhill, crashed through the manhole and wound up in the cesspit, I reckon.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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